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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,481
  • Jan 12, 2014 3:57am Jan 12, 2014 3:57am
Hello US/JPY

Still holding 3 longs to 105.5 105.7 TP

Nearly under water,but went short 105

Yeah might have to hold that one for a few days.

Was reading FXCM,they reckon 106 then 98

The one smart thing I did was close all longs a few days ago an take profit

Feels good to take the pressure off
  • #41,482
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:20am Jan 12, 2014 5:20am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} did you make up those numbers at the end?
A while back ago there was an article about this on Bloomberg and in a newspaper in Asia that I had read while on board a flight from Taipei to Hong Kong. The article had talked about how much money most manufacturers were listing while the YEN traded between 70-90 YEN to the dollar due to high salaries and expenses that manufacturers had to endure to manufacture products inJapan. Did you not see the losses that manufactures endured over the last 2 years while the YEN was on a bull run due to a bullish YEN?
  • #41,483
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:59am Jan 12, 2014 5:59am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} A while back ago there was an article about this on Bloomberg and in a newspaper in Asia that I had read while on board a flight from Taipei to Hong Kong. The article had talked about how much money most manufacturers were listing while the YEN traded between 70-90 YEN to the dollar due to high salaries and expenses that manufacturers had to endure to manufacture products inJapan. Did you not see the losses that manufactures endured over the last 2 years while the YEN was on a bull run due to a bullish YEN?
link or bs
  • #41,484
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:20am Jan 12, 2014 10:20am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...er-dollar.html
  • #41,485
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:24am Jan 12, 2014 10:24am
Quoting sakisf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...er-dollar.html
"signalled that a yen at 110 per dollar would pose a problem for the economy."

So 110 is not good for the economy now?

but 100 is?

this article doesn't back up the point that was made. try again.
  • #41,486
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:26am Jan 12, 2014 10:26am
This was last year's article. When yen was much stronger and they wanted to depreciate.

Anyway, that was the only article on bb about yen @ 100 and yen @ 110 I could find No sure if stylinex is talking about this one.
  • #41,487
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:16pm Jan 12, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} link or bs

Not BS, I have to find the link though.

I have not found it yet but will try and find it. Here is one from Nissan that pretty much tells you that they need to be at 110 to make a good profit and before that they were losing money when the YEN was in the 80's.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...82503930800228

All along they have been saying that a weaker YEN hurts exports and they would intervene to turn things around.
http://www.newser.com/story/100600/j...eaken-yen.html
http://www.newser.com/story/139567/j...-expected.html



Here they predicted the YEN at 102 for the first few months of 2014.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ery-sales.html

Even 1 YEN makes a difference of 80 Million loss for some manufacturers.
Canon Inc. (7751), which loses almost $80 million for every 1 yen Japan’s currency gains against the dollar, fell 1 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ers-climb.html

If the YEN goes to 100 then work can be brought back to Japan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...eting-yen.html
  • #41,488
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:17pm Jan 12, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting sakisf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...er-dollar.html

That is not the one. I need to try and find it.
  • #41,489
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:21pm Jan 12, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Not BS, I have to find the link though. I have not found it yet but will try and find it. Here is one from Nissan that pretty much tells you that they need to be at 110 to make a good profit and before that they were losing money when the YEN was in the 80's. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...82503930800228 All along they have been saying that a weaker YEN hurts exports and they would intervene to turn things around. http://www.newser.com/story/100600/j...eaken-yen.html...
these don't support your view, all these do is say that the weaker the yen the better these companies do. Well of course they do, its simple maths.

but none of them suggest they need a 110 USDJPY level to grow and 100 to be breakeven.

Keep trying...
  • #41,490
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:55pm Jan 12, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} these don't support your view, all these do is say that the weaker the yen the better these companies do. Well of course they do, its simple maths. but none of them suggest they need a 110 USDJPY level to grow and 100 to be breakeven. Keep trying...
I am not trying. I am telling you about an article I had read online from a credible source. I also believe it was in the newspaper that time as well. Just need time to find it. The article was talking about the cost of living and wages that Japanese companies and manufactures had to pay locals to keep Japanese made products made locally and by locals in order to be profitable by local manufactures and companies. A while back ago they were talking about how Japan was slowly losing its edge to South Korea and how their strong currency was not helping them with export numbers and profits at their companies and manufactures while South Korea was getting quite a bit of the chunk of their electronic exports that they once dominated as the South Korean WON was over 1000 to the USD while theirs was under 100.

Have you been to Japan or lived in Asia? I have lived there for over 20 years now.
  • #41,491
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:57pm Jan 12, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} dont think he did. read it somewhere myself some time back when the UJ was at 97-99

I think this is around the time I had read it as well but I had also read it about a year ago as well. I am not the type of a person who would lie just to make a post on here. I just wanted to share what I had read. If he believes me then fine if not then there is not much I can do about it. The 4 newspaper I usually read when on board a light in Asia is usually Asian WSJ, IBTIMES,FT and the SCMP from Hong Kong.
  • #41,492
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:10pm Jan 12, 2014 4:10pm
How was everyones weekend? Ready for the new week!?
  • #41,493
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote}....If the YEN goes to 100 then work can be brought back to Japan....
I read a Reuters article last week that mentioned Canon repatriating work. At the moment 46% of their output is made in Japan, if the Yen holds 100 or weaker then Canon are moving to 50% Japanese production. The repatriation has started already, the shift should complete in a couple of years.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #41,494
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:35pm Jan 12, 2014 7:35pm
Talk from dealers upon NZ open. Yen strengthening, thin liquidity from Japan holiday so its an inexpensive time for stops to be ran.
  • #41,495
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:10pm Jan 12, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting Qwiksilver
{quote} I feel like this is the perfect storm brewing. I can see today getting down to the 103.50 'ish range. That's the next big support. If it falls through that (especially today), well, let's just say I wouldn't want to be long the dollar on this pair.
Hit that 103.50 today
  • #41,496
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:22pm Jan 12, 2014 8:22pm
Saw this coming for sure... Would expect a rally back up to 103.80-103.90 now but who knows this is serious weakness here on UJ.
  • #41,497
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:28pm Jan 12, 2014 8:28pm
I am loving it
  • #41,498
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:45pm Jan 12, 2014 8:45pm
Hehe. That was a good opportunity to short right after NFP. It retraced back to the 104.70 level about 30 mins after NFP. And then those who held it short going into the weekend were nicely rewarded.
  • #41,499
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:47pm Jan 12, 2014 8:47pm
Now USD/JPY LONG
Take what the market gives you.
  • #41,500
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:56pm Jan 12, 2014 8:56pm
I would short again above 104. Short term that is..
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