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EurAnalysis

  • #71,861
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:58am Jan 9, 2014 8:58am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} missed entry 1.3550(not typo 1.3359) by 2.3 pips.....dang...

after second attempt finally in......1.3550
and not liking current candles on most time frame....out with +25pips gain
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,862
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:11am Jan 9, 2014 11:11am
I use the DXY as an indicator [as a pre-determinating factor] for long/short entry points in the eu pair. Price on the index is entering into a band of daily resistance, 81.00 up to 81.40. I won't try to forecast what price is going to do... because I don't know. However, my immediate observation from the 4hr chart would seem to suggest that following a series of multi tests higher, price at this moment is having difficulty closing abv 81.05. I'd be surprised if price fell away quickly given the recent strength that the $ has enjoyed. The main point I'd like to emphasize here, I see in the short term, limitted upwards potential in the DXY, which should bode well for the eu. even if this means it needs to come [post NFP] from around the 1.348 lvl.
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  • #71,863
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:28am Jan 9, 2014 11:28am
Quoting rendite
I use the DXY as an indicator [as a pre-determinating factor] for long/short entry points in the eu pair. Price on the index is entering into a band of daily resistance, 81.00 up to 81.40. I won't try to forecast what price is going to do... because I don't know. However, my immediate observation from the 4hr chart would seem to suggest that following a series of multi tests higher, price at this moment is having difficulty closing abv 81.05. I'd be surprised if price fell away quickly given the recent strength that the $ has enjoyed. The main point...
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,864
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:38pm Jan 9, 2014 8:38pm
my view on eurusd

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7202520
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,865
  • Jan 10, 2014 11:49am Jan 10, 2014 11:49am
In the grand history of this great thread, today is the first NFP day, that there was no meaningful post. I surely missed it, especially (mostly) an illuminating post by our fearless leader, The Pip Trapper.
  • #71,866
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:15pm Jan 10, 2014 3:15pm
Thanks PT. Appreciate that coming from you.

The fortunes of the eu in my opinion will be determined by what happens at the 80.50 lvl. in the DXY.

If 80.50 holds [and today's DXY movement is part of a recoil], I'd expect eu short positions to be taken into 1.369/1.371 and the DXY to playout an AB/CD. [eu 1.336].

If 80.50 fails, the nxt lvl of support is at 80.00. Naturally, eu bears would want to convince themselves that the triple top is firmly in. I wouldn't "buy" into that. The 80 lvl is too deep a retracement, the dollar has just come from there. If 80.50 fails I'm expecting a perioid similar to the "failed high period Jan 13." In some respects, the current 11 week pattern is similar to the one from 2012/13 particularly the period from mid-Oct to early Jan.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aLRRA9sA/
  • #71,867
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:32pm Jan 10, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting minortrader
In the grand history of this great thread, today is the first NFP day, that there was no meaningful post. I surely missed it, especially (mostly) an illuminating post by our fearless leader, The Pip Trapper.
Sorry about that Minor. I was trying to focus strictly on technicals today. Let me tell you why.

Over the last few days I realized that there was no way to predict how the market would react to a better than expected number or a worse than expected one.

Therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. I didn't place any trades on the Euro today but I did manage to buy into the GBP/USD rally strictly on technical basis. From my perspective there was no high probability technical trade on the Euro, so I stayed away as I did not want to get emotionally sucked in to a trade I would regret. It was very clear to me that the E/U pair had a 50/50 chance of going either way no matter what the NFP report said. I don't like that kind of risk.

In conclusion I have determined that no matter what happens with NFP, the unemployment rate or any other US data, the markets are still too focused on free money from the Fed and the BOJ, which means that the USD and the JPY will likely continue to weaken and the European currencies (EUR and GBP mostly) will continue to strengthen for now. The time for the bears will come, but it's not here yet... sadly.

My prediction for the Euro at this point is that we test new highs before a correction back to or above current levels. From there the highs will be retested one more time and then it is either 1.44 or 1.14

Now you know what I am thinking. Perhaps I should have posted this earlier. My apologies.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,868
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:46pm Jan 10, 2014 3:46pm
daily chart...
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i am neutral
  • #71,869
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:19pm Jan 10, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Sorry about that Minor. I was trying to focus strictly on technicals today. Let me tell you why. Over the last few days I realized that there was no way to predict how the market would react to a better than expected number or a worse than expected one. Therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. I didn't place any trades on the Euro today but I did manage to buy into the GBP/USD rally strictly on technical basis. From my perspective there was no high probability technical trade on the Euro, so I stayed away...
Thank you, sir.

This is exactly what I was yearning for.

A brief, to the point, precise and concise summary of the prevailing market sentiment and easy to understand technical analysis.

My apologies if I sounded like complaining or whining.

In fact, in hindsight, it appears to have been some sort of manifestation of "withdrawal symptoms".
  • #71,870
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:42pm Jan 10, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting chess king
daily chart...{image} i am neutral
Thanks for the chart CK. The red lines is what I am thinking.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,871
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:45pm Jan 10, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting minortrader
{quote} Thank you, sir. This is exactly what I was yearning for. A brief, to the point, precise and concise summary of the prevailing market sentiment and easy to understand technical analysis. My apologies if I sounded like complaining or whining. In fact, in hindsight, it appears to have been some sort of manifestation of "withdrawal symptoms"
Have a great weekend Minor... and everyone else also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,872
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:09pm Jan 10, 2014 5:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Thanks for the chart CK. The red lines is what I am thinking. {image}

if the world was perfect ... it was a perfect scenario...
  • #71,873
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:58pm Jan 10, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Sorry about that Minor. I was trying to focus strictly on technicals today. Let me tell you why. Over the last few days I realized that there was no way to predict how the market would react to a better than expected number or a worse than expected one. Therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. I didn't place any trades on the Euro today but I did manage to buy into the GBP/USD rally strictly on technical basis. From my perspective there was no high probability technical trade on the Euro, so I stayed away...
I had an order at 1.3550 taken up yesterday. Moved stop to 1.3580 today got hit and was forced to re-enter at 1.3605 not bad but could be better. To me it was cast iron risk on rally today post NFP. Dollar assets are not yet attractive I mean the 10y is at 3% or thereabouts after only one round of TAPER. If taper is to continue and hopefully be finished by year end then god knows what the yield will be, so why buy dollar bonds yet? European bonds are being bought up left right and centre huge demand for Irish and Portuguese paper this week, demand is there and will continue to be there for euro and sterling. The only way to long the dollar is buy USDCAD which I sadly closed out of at 1.07.

But any way that is just opinion and I will continue to be a dollar bear until dollar assets look attractive. Hope you are well
  • #71,874
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:19pm Jan 12, 2014 4:19pm
Hi PT! In considering the fundamentals underneath the EURUSD pair...i think the 74K NFP number will only have a short-term-dollar-negative effect, and may take us to 1.37150 or 1.37200 region soon.( and put a hold on tapering).

On the other had,the 0.3% drop in unemployment rate is bringing to fore the reality of a US rate hike before the 3rd quater of the year;seeing that 6.5% is the target for the Fed and we are just 0.2% away from that mark.

What are your thoughts on this?
  • #71,875
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm Jan 12, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting Hotkqash
Hi PT! In considering the fundamentals underneath the EURUSD pair...i think the 74K NFP number will only have a short-term-dollar-negative effect, and may take us to 1.37150 or 1.37200 region soon.( and put a hold on tapering). On the other had,the 0.3% drop in unemployment rate is bringing to fore the reality of a US rate hike before the 3rd quater of the year;seeing that 6.5% is the target for the Fed and we are just 0.2% away from that mark. What are your thoughts on this?
It took a long time for the market to realize the following and it seems that you may not have realized it yet....

The Fed will NOT be hiking rates when unemployment reaches 6.5%. The 6.5% level is only a threshold that is required to be crossed before the Fed Will even consider raising rates. Therefore it is not a trigger.

There are a few things the Fed will look at AFTER unemployment is at or under 6.5% and they are:

1. The inflation (cpi) rate. Target is at or slightly below 2% and they are still quite far from that.

2. Labour participation rate. The unemployment rates is falling because labour participation rate is falling and not because many more jobs are being created. Until the Fed sees the labour participation rate on the rise again, or at least stabilize for many months, then the unemployment rate means nothing to them.

3. Short term interest rates and real market lending rates based on the 10 year benchmark. Higher interest rates are an impediment to economic growth during a fragile recovery. Therefore the Fed will not even consider raising rates unless the short term and benchmark market rates are too low in an environment where the economy seems to be booming with 400K+ NFP reports and cpi close to or at least leading to the 2% target.

Therefore, the free money will continue for quite a while yet. Anything is possible but according to the Fed economic projections, it is absurd to think that the Fed will raise rates any time before mid to late 2015. Of course these projections could change at any time, but betting on a stronger USD before it seems feasible is a gamble.

In the meantime, although any possible recovery in the Eurozone is extremely fragile and suspicious, the ECB is not printing. In fact other than low rates, it is holding a rather tight monetary policy. This is definitely Euro bullish additionally fueled by easy policy in Japan and higher yields in EZ periphery sovereign bonds.

I strongly believe that the USD will have it's time in the limelight quite soon, but not yet. Therefore it will weaken further especially vs the European currencies for at least Q1 2014. The month of May is traditionally a seasonal risk-off period, so maybe then we shall start to see the USD come back with a vengeance.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,876
  • Jan 13, 2014 2:36am Jan 13, 2014 2:36am
Good day folks and Happy Monday.

It will be interesting to see what the markets have in store for us lowly retail traders today.
Being a Monday following NFP, traditionally price keeps going in the same direction as the final one after NFP. However, I think that move is somewhat exhausted and needs some consolidation which will either come in the form of a pullback or sideways action.
NY session may prove otherwise.

Anyway, I'm standing aside until I see some action. I'm still bullish, but this is not a level to enter long because the RR sucks.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,877
  • Jan 13, 2014 3:33am Jan 13, 2014 3:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good day folks and Happy Monday. It will be interesting to see what the markets have in store for us lowly retail traders today. Being a Monday following NFP, traditionally price keeps going in the same direction as the final one after NFP. However, I think that move is somewhat exhausted and needs some consolidation which will either come in the form of a pullback or sideways action. NY session may prove otherwise. Anyway, I'm standing aside until I see some action. I'm still bullish, but this is not a level to enter long because the RR sucks.

Bonjour monsieur...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #71,878
  • Jan 13, 2014 3:56am Jan 13, 2014 3:56am
Quoting milam
{quote} Bonjour monsieur...
Buon Giorno Signore
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,879
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:03am Jan 13, 2014 4:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Buon Giorno Signore
I have not seen you for a while…..Welcome back….
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #71,880
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:05am Jan 13, 2014 4:05am
Quoting milam
{quote} I have not seen you for a while…..Welcome back….
I am waiting for new development.. Range now
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Wherever you go, there you are.
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