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  • #28,881
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:23am Jan 10, 2014 3:23am
Quoting geomoon
{quote} is the pull back from the trend line with the PA is enough to pull the trigger ?
thart trendline is what some traders will draw and use that as a condition to justify a sell entry.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 10 Jan LO candle.png Size: 34 KB


but my concern is what is below the LO candle.

those areas can slow down price moving lower or even cause a reversal.

therefore taking this H1 sell trade will need keen eye on PA for management .
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,882
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:23am Jan 10, 2014 3:23am
Good day, happy traders!

I've not posted on this thread, but have quietly gone about trading the TMS system in my own way. I hope to be a little more active on here in the future.

Anyway, my question is this:

On most TDI indicators, there's a visible MBL (Market Base Line), which is supposed to show the trend. I tend to trade in the direction of this, but noticed that many traders seem to just trade TDI crosses, often against the direction of the MBL. I've missed out on lots of trades through sticking to the trend as dictated by the MBL- should I ignore it?

I'd be interested in hearing the views of experienced traders of this system.
  • #28,883
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:45am Jan 10, 2014 3:45am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} thart trendline is what some traders will draw and use that as a condition to justify a sell entry. {image} but my concern is what is below the LO candle. those areas can slow down price moving lower or even cause a reversal. therefore taking this H1 sell trade will need keen eye on PA for management .
Once again your analysis puts me to shame, think I'll have the day off trading as its NFP and just do some learning instead

Have a nice weekend everyone!!
  • #28,884
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:46am Jan 10, 2014 3:46am
If this candle closes then the next is the third so we should stop and find another chance right everyone ?
Thank you
  • #28,885
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:50am Jan 10, 2014 3:50am
Quoting Gareth22
{quote} Once again your analysis puts me to shame, think I'll have the day off trading as its NFP and just do some learning instead Have a nice weekend everyone!!

Gareth22:

No need to feel ashame.
I went through S3 H1 trading with X-Man and he opened up my 'third eye' to pay more attention to Price Action when trading H1.

Just look back to the LO on 8 Jan and see how the price drop so quickly and look at today' LO.
Back-testing will help us learn.
Here today we are trading in real-time and we learn to look at PA and how to react.

Trade Well!
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,886
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:29am Jan 10, 2014 4:29am
Quoting leonora
If this candle closes then the next is the third so we should stop and find another chance right everyone ? Thank you
Leonora:

When we refer to post#6 on Entries and Exits, then strictly speaking this is the basic rule. We apply this to H4 chart trading.

But to break this rule, there are some conditions we need to see on our charts.
In the case when we trade H1, we can also enter on other APB#candles count 3,4,5 ....
This is when we see price action breakouts like Master Candle breakouts, Inside Bar breakouts,
For new traders who are conservative, the use of the 5SMMA PAC can be use to trade the breakout of the PAC and these are usually after candle#2.

This may be the case now for EJ if you put the PAC on your chart.

But bear in mind where you place your initial SL.

Trade Well!
EMMANUEL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E post6 entries and exits.png Size: 36 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,887
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:52am Jan 10, 2014 4:52am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} thart trendline is what some traders will draw and use that as a condition to justify a sell entry. {image} but my concern is what is below the LO candle. those areas can slow down price moving lower or even cause a reversal. therefore taking this H1 sell trade will need keen eye on PA for management .
Thanks for the clarification Emmanuel.
  • #28,888
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:54am Jan 10, 2014 4:54am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EJ 10 Jan London Open +15mins: {image} The above chart shows EJ LO candle just 15 mins after open. Still another 45 mins to go before this candle close. Do you pull the trigger should this candle close with TDI cross?
I'd rather wait for a clear break out, but I guess there is enough reason to go short. Price reacted to the trendline and all conditions seem to be met.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #28,889
  • Edited 5:43am Jan 10, 2014 5:07am | Edited 5:43am
Here is a conservative H1 entry with APB/HA candle #3.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 10 Jan LO+2.png Size: 40 KB



Edit: Forgot to mention that H1 candle close a Marubozu so we see a price bounce. Let's watch how much will this bounce back be.
added new pic.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,890
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:08am Jan 10, 2014 5:08am
Quoting WDays
{quote} I'd rather wait for a clear break out, but I guess there is enough reason to go short. Price reacted to the trendline and all conditions seem to be met. {image}

Yes, I would take that LO candle and in worst case should price pullback -20pips, I take the loss.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,891
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:24am Jan 10, 2014 5:24am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} You are right. Thanks. Somehow I overlooked and did not mark NFP on my calendar. Stupid mistake. cheers!
Glad to be of assistance to you..makes a change from you helping me! haha
  • #28,892
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:27am Jan 10, 2014 5:27am
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} Glad to be of assistance to you..makes a change from you helping me! haha

put it another way, ... we all look after one another.
More eyes see more.

TEAM effect ..

T - together
E - everyone
A - achieve
M - more

keep the TMS TEAM spirit burning here.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #28,893
  • Edited 7:30am Jan 10, 2014 6:06am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} put it another way, ... we all look after one another. More eyes see more. TEAM effect .. T - together E - everyone A - achieve M - more keep the TMS TEAM spirit burning here.
I took this EY H4 Buy trade earlier in the week, on what I thought was a MC BO and ending of the range. It turned in to a nice loser!

The reasons I entered were: TDI bounce, Green & Red had crossed Yellow MBL, Red was clearly sloping up, Price made a HH and broke recent range plus broke above R levels from 18-20 December, I entered after close of 1st blue CS showing good upthrust and on open of 2nd CS I waited for it to break above previous CS high to show momentum.

Is there any reason this trade was not a good entry that would stop me entering in to similar in future?

Or is it just 1 of those losing trades I have to accept?

I don't know what I am missing in my analysis of the chart?

Any advice from all comers is welcome!


Cheers!

irishtoffy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh1.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh4.png Size: 51 KB
  • #28,894
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:17am Jan 10, 2014 6:17am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EJ 10 Jan London Open +15mins: {image} The above chart shows EJ LO candle just 15 mins after open. Still another 45 mins to go before this candle close. Do you pull the trigger should this candle close with TDI cross?

Dear Emmanuel,

FO candle have wick on Both side.so pl advise me that FO candle was a Valid Pull back reversal candle?
I enter my last trade when TDI green cross MBL.the trade still running but opposite direction.
pls advise me if my entry time is incorrect.

Also could you pls share you APB/with 5 period average Indicator.

Thanks,
Helanka
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-01-10.png Size: 76 KB
Helanka
  • #28,895
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:45am Jan 10, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Dear Emmanuel, FO candle have wick on Both side.so pl advise me that FO candle was a Valid Pull back reversal candle? I enter my last trade when TDI green cross MBL.the trade still running but opposite direction. pls advise me if my entry time is incorrect. Also could you pls share you APB/with 5 period average Indicator. Thanks, Helanka {image}
I find it wayy too late. You entered on the third candle. The ideal entry for me would have been as LO opens red and moves down, with a TDI cross.
  • #28,896
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:50am Jan 10, 2014 7:50am
Quoting WDays
{quote} I find it wayy too late. You entered on the third candle. The ideal entry for me would have been as LO opens red and moves down, with a TDI cross.
You mean from the beginning of the Lo candle or from the beginning of second red candle?
What the theory you used to enter the trade.(if it pull back reversal? Pls tell me is it a valid pull back reversal)
Pls advise..


Thanks,
Helanka
Helanka
  • #28,897
  • Jan 10, 2014 8:09am Jan 10, 2014 8:09am
Quoting Helanka
{quote} You mean from the beginning of the Lo candle or from the beginning of second red candle? What the theory you used to enter the trade.(if it pull back reversal? Pls tell me is it a valid pull back reversal) Pls advise.. Thanks, Helanka
Keep in mind I do not open trades before LO. The LO-2 candle had a long upper wick which rejected the newly formed trendline. I would pull the trigger as soon as I see the LO candle turn red and go down.

That being said, I didn't trade today for several reasons. First off I never trade morning sessions on NFP days, because markets are usually very slow, waiting for the data release. Secondly, like I pointed out in an earlier screenshot, price is trapped in a wedge, with several good support and resistance areas around price, which require the momentum that is not there because it's NFP day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.png Size: 72 KB
  • #28,898
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:17am Jan 10, 2014 9:17am
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} I took this EY H4 Buy trade ...
irishtoffy,

on your chart, you entered quite late for H4 - this was your candle #3.

As you may see on my chart (gmt+1) you entered

  1. after the H1 already went up with 9 blue candles
  2. directly on the weekly pivot point in combination with the monthly pivot point
  3. you draw the guppies on your chart but didn't used them for entry dectection/support.
    Even if the short term guppies are in an ongoing rotation, the long term point down / sideways.

So this seems to be a retracement move and you entered at the top.
If I would have waited for a bounce with a retracement from the pivot level.

So my analysis - but afterwards it is always easy to say that

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-10 16.05 GMT+1 EURJPY.png Size: 171 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,899
  • Edited 9:35am Jan 10, 2014 9:19am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} I took this EY H4 Buy trade earlier in the week, on what I thought was a MC BO and ending of the range. It turned in to a nice loser! The reasons I entered were: TDI bounce, Green & Red had crossed Yellow MBL, Red was clearly sloping up, Price made a HH and broke recent range plus broke above R levels from 18-20 December, I entered after close of 1st blue CS showing good upthrust and on open of 2nd CS I waited for it to break above previous CS high to show momentum. Is there any reason this trade was not a good entry that would stop me entering...
Sorry irishtoffy you said what you thought was a MC BO, forgive me but I can't see a MC in your image?
  • #28,900
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:26am Jan 10, 2014 9:26am
I took +50 pips on ej today after the news, entered 15min. after, on the retracement.
Much better than yesterday when I entered the same trade as lastingwell and PHx62, the same spot
but was called away so let the trade manager to take care of it, only I forgot to set the tp back to 50 pips,
which would've been hit, few hours later I found my trade back to BE.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Greenshot_2014-01-10_10-10-13EJh1.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Greenshot_2014-01-10_10-08-10ejM15.png Size: 83 KB
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