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  • #869,041
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:33am Jan 9, 2014 4:33am
Quoting cxgiugn
indecision in this moment not good to entry ....if < 1,3587 short confirmed
for you mate...
everyone has a different style of seeing things
for me, momentum is up...at least until the end of this 3rd H4 candle

ive added one more long down there
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fokyou forexfactory
  • #869,042
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:34am Jan 9, 2014 4:34am
Quoting jsshuai
{quote}regarding big news releases like nfp, is it the case that when it's released the move is already gone? not sure how the big pros trade news time if they trade at all.
When all big fundamental risk clear out long term traders enter in market. That's why I said after NFP because there will be nothing left to mess after it.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #869,043
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:44am Jan 9, 2014 4:44am
1040 GMT Dow Jones In economics, a Taylor rule is a monetary-policy guideline that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to changes in inflation, output, or other economic conditions. SocGen's Kit Juckes says in that case BOE rates should be up at 2%, while ECB rates would be around -2%. And that's the problem for the ECB. Private growth is still shrinking, unemployment is stuck above 12% with youth unemployment still rising, inflation is non-existent and deflation a real threat. Even so the overall situation is not bad enough for President Draghi to find consensus for drastic action, so there's no catalyst for a significant EUR/USD fall. On a 1-month view, Juckes sees the spot at 1.38 more likely than at 1.34. It currently trades at 1.3605. [email protected].
  • #869,044
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:45am Jan 9, 2014 4:45am
btw 3633 is the line in sand for me on euro
fokyou forexfactory
  • #869,045
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:54am Jan 9, 2014 4:54am
Euro retrace higher is good opportunity to sell ....its a down trend
you are the creator of your own destiny-Shivyog
  • #869,046
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:09am Jan 9, 2014 5:09am
UC noted stops above 1.0850 however i don't believe the stars are aligned for a break yet, not a big deal even if it does break
suggest sell small 1.0840ish flip stop buy above 1.0850, roughly 20-30pip take profit either way/1:1 RR.
  • #869,047
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:11am Jan 9, 2014 5:11am
Quoting eurusd_trade
UC noted stops above 1.0850 however i don't believe the stars are aligned for a break yet suggest sell small 1.0840ish flip stop buy above 1.0850, roughly 20-30pip take profit either way/1:1 RR
Either U/C or E/C will make new highs both showing no sign of retrace
  • #869,048
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:12am Jan 9, 2014 5:12am
oh man this markets really irritating me.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #869,049
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:13am Jan 9, 2014 5:13am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Either U/C or E/C will make new highs both showing no sign of retrace

i agree longer term but i'm not so sure we're going to print above 1.0850 before 10815-10820, there are also some stops at 1.0775. either way, stop buy right above 1.0850, OR sell now and try for lower stops with only 10 pip risk. of course none of this may pan out before ECB
  • #869,050
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:15am Jan 9, 2014 5:15am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} i agree longer term but i'm not so sure we're going to print above 1.0850 before 10815-10820, there are also some stops at 1.0775. either way, stop buy at 1.0850, OR sell now and try for lower stops with only 10 pip risk
I have one U/C short trapped @ 1.0798x but also have long from 1.02750 and was wrong thought 1.080 (38.2% MONTHLY CHART) will give meaningful retrace

Now PA is above this important support 38.2%

Technical don't always work when the drive is fundamental
  • #869,051
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:20am Jan 9, 2014 5:20am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Drago will make appearance later on so everyone is waiting
i'm on a 12 for 12 win streak but all scalps. I'd trade them all for 1 big trade lol.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #869,052
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:21am Jan 9, 2014 5:21am
People are adding longs and quitting shorts.) probably most traders will go long at 1.3550-1.3520.. But, there is no fundamentals for euro up.. I just don't see it.. Fair value for euro now is 1.30-1.29..
  • #869,053
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:22am Jan 9, 2014 5:22am
Quoting Azeriboy
People are adding longs and quitting shorts.) probably most traders will go long at 1.3550-1.3520.. But, there is no fundamentals for euro up.. I just don't see it.. Fair value for euro now is 1.30-1.29..
people have been saying that for a month if not over a year. you can't put a price on this market it's all emotional.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #869,054
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:27am Jan 9, 2014 5:27am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I have one U/C short trapped @ 1.0798x but also have long from 1.02750 and was wrong thought 1.080 (38.2% MONTHLY CHART) will give meaningful retrace Now PA is above this important support 38.2% Technical don't always work when the drive is fundamental
agreed
but again i think there's good RR
1- buyS 1.0852 sellL 1.0870+
2 -sellL 1.0842 buyL somewhere 1.0780-1.0820 buyS 1.0852
3 -leave bids in 1.0750-1.0780 if longer-term long

of course EC is going to hit 1.50 and UC will hit 1.10 just like how easy it has been for EU to hit 1.40 right? haha who knows
  • #869,055
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:33am Jan 9, 2014 5:33am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} agreed but again i think there's good RR 1- buyS 1.0852 sellL 1.0870+ 2 -sellL 1.0842 buyL somewhere 1.0775-1.0820 buyS 1.0852 3 -leave bids in 1.0750-1.0775
I personally won't repeat my assumption, either will wait or risking the pips to take long position the up momentum is too strong.

Have a look at E/C H4 - was in and out E/C long 4x thinking it would retrace but didn't then jump back in.

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  • #869,056
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:34am Jan 9, 2014 5:34am
why there is so many posts here about other pairs than EurUsd.

I remember back in 2007/08/09 great posts here, but only about EurUSd.

Where is AK4x, Suntrader, Driver55, Arthurb, and the the enigmatic Jay Walker and others, where are they?

Some "saudades" here from this "portuga" about those times.
  • #869,057
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:37am Jan 9, 2014 5:37am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I have one U/C short trapped @ 1.0798x but also have long from 1.02750 and was wrong thought 1.080 (38.2% MONTHLY CHART) will give meaningful retrace Now PA is above this important support 38.2% Technical don't always work when the drive is fundamental
Sir, K

1.0819 current support. May see a retrace from 1.0871 with max extension for the month @ 1.0919. Whichever way - 1.0819 to be revisited. Doubt we will go higher than that. I believe the turn will be 1.0871

Just my 2c

Regards
  • #869,058
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:39am Jan 9, 2014 5:39am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir, K 1.0819 current support. May see a retrace from 1.0871 with max extension for the month @ 1.0919. Whichever way - 1.0819 to be revisited. Doubt we will go higher than that. I believe the turn will be 1.0871 Just my 2c Regards
Hola Uncle Tau

Yes watching and waiting to get out of this short
  • #869,059
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:41am Jan 9, 2014 5:41am
Quoting BoredToLoose
why there is so many posts here about other pairs than EurUsd. I remember back in 2007/08/09 great posts here, but only about EurUSd. Where is AK4x, Suntrader, Driver55, Arthurb, and the the enigmatic Jay Walker and others, where are they? Some "saudades" here from this "portuga" about those times.
Because EUR/USD just isn't a market leader anymore, most of the time EUR/XXX moves are driven by XXX and not EUR and EUR/USD isn't having the best opportunities
There are two groups of currencies:
Group 1: EUR, GBP, USD
Group 2: JPY, AUD, CAD, XAU, EM
Other: CHF (Used to be Group 1 but now maybe Group 2 for 2014? dunno), NZD (Group 1?), Scandies (who cares)
Group 2 shorts are funded by Group 1 longs. Obviously GBP has been the star but EUR and USD have been playing musical chairs
  • #869,060
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:48am Jan 9, 2014 5:48am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Because EUR/USD just isn't a market leader anymore, most of the time EUR/XXX moves are driven by XXX and not EUR and EUR/USD isn't having the best opportunities There are two groups of currencies: Group 1: EUR, GBP, USD Group 2: JPY, AUD, CAD, XAU, EM Other: CHF (Used to be Group 1 but now maybe Group 2 for 2014? dunno), NZD (Group 1?), Scandies (who cares) Group 2 shorts are funded by Group 1 longs. Obviously GBP has been the star but EUR and USD have been playing musical chairs
Right!

I always traded only this pair, I know I could won some more bunch of pips in others, but I leave that for greedy ones.
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