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  • #3,341
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:55pm Jan 5, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
Without the low liquidity spikes in EUR/USD and GBP/USD during Xmas I suspect the charts would look somewhat less bearish. {image}

I agree with you Jimbaloo about this being the result of low liquidity and could be just distortion. So it might be best to give these majors a few days to settle. There is bearish divergence on the gbpusd chart daily chart so I think after all is said and done and we continue to get good data from the US the bigger trade is to the downside
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,342
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:58pm Jan 5, 2014 7:58pm
Cocoa
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cocoa-weekly-05012014.jpg Size: 94 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,343
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:15pm Jan 5, 2014 9:15pm
Olu, how will you trade audusd?
  • #3,344
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:28pm Jan 6, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting trexy123
Olu, how will you trade audusd?

Trexy123 I am still not sure about this upmove in the AudUsd so I al looking for signs of exhaustion to sell for a downside move. Look at how price turned at the 90 resistance

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,345
  • Jan 7, 2014 8:31am Jan 7, 2014 8:31am
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil {image} {image}
Thinking the same here Olu. I don't do EW but that's some seriously heavy selling pressure in a short period of time, and it suggests recent lows at 92 are going to be history before too long.
Furthermore, the whole commodities index is looking heavy; I'm looking for crude down to maybe 86, copper down similarly, and bond yields are probably going to drop as the commodities drop.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,346
  • Jan 7, 2014 8:39am Jan 7, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Thinking the same here Olu. I don't do EW but that's some seriously heavy selling pressure in a short period of time, and it suggests recent lows at 92 are going to be history before too long. Furthermore, the whole commodities index is looking heavy; I'm looking for crude down to maybe 86, copper down similarly, and bond yields are probably going to drop as the commodities drop.
I agree BW. I was looking for a retracement in oil to sell from but the retracement attempt this morning could only get to 9429 before it crashed lower again. There is serious bearishmess in crude oil atm - especially the WTI variety. I agree with you on the CRB as well. It is on a downtrending path and there is more to come. While different commodities will reach their highs at different times they cant escape the eventual draw of the bearish sentiment compounded by strength in the US$. So I am not 'longing' the commodity asset class with any conviction anytime soon

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,347
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:27am Jan 7, 2014 11:27am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree BW. I was looking for a retracement in oil to sell from but the retracement attempt this morning could only get to 9429 before it crashed lower again. There is serious bearishmess in crude oil atm - especially the WTI variety. I agree with you on the CRB as well. It is on a downtrending path and there is more to come. While different commodities will reach their highs at different times they cant escape the eventual draw of the bearish sentiment compounded by strength in the US$. So I am not 'longing' the commodity asset class with...
You know, you could always short it...
I'm already in crude and bonds, and got a limit to get short copper not far from here....hoping I can get filled.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,348
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:51pm Jan 7, 2014 12:51pm
On crude...it's occurred to me that I had roughly the same idea as you - I wanted to get more short at around the 95.5 area.
If you were thinking it and I was thinking it then probably a lot of people are thinking it, which is something we need to bear in mind, in furtherance of which my thoughts are that probably one of three things will happen:
a) it will rise from here to 95.5/96 but keep steaming on to maybe 98/100
b) it won't rise at all from here but will keep dropping to 92 and then rebound
c) it will drop from here past support at 92, maybe to 90/91, sucker in a boatload of shorts and then retrace to 95/96, after that, who knows...

I think most likely is b) or c) but as ever it's the candles that count and this is just speculation.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,349
  • Jan 7, 2014 5:44pm Jan 7, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
On crude...it's occurred to me that I had roughly the same idea as you - I wanted to get more short at around the 95.5 area. If you were thinking it and I was thinking it then probably a lot of people are thinking it, which is something we need to bear in mind, in furtherance of which my thoughts are that probably one of three things will happen: a) it will rise from here to 95.5/96 but keep steaming on to maybe 98/100 b) it won't rise at all from here but will keep dropping to 92 and then rebound c) it will drop from here past support at 92, maybe...
I so hope (a) happens. If it is going to happen it will be quickish. Today crude found some buying as seen on the lower timeframes. So we wait and see what will happen. I dont recommend buying retracements (even though this might be tradable) as I like to trade with the primary trend.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,350
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:18pm Jan 8, 2014 6:18pm
Crude Oil

Guys no retracement in sight. I had 'high' hopes for price today but it wasn't to be. Stil looking for an entry though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CrudeOil-weekly-09012014-0014uk.jpg Size: 72 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,351
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:26pm Jan 8, 2014 7:26pm
Dollar Index Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-weekly-09012014-0122uk.jpg Size: 143 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,352
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:33pm Jan 8, 2014 7:33pm
Nat. Gas
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Natural Gas(Daily)20140108203128.png Size: 36 KB
  • #3,353
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:35pm Jan 8, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil Guys no retracement in sight. I had 'high' hopes for price today but it wasn't to be. Stil looking for an entry though {image}
Agree, 85 is next.
  • #3,354
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:39pm Jan 8, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting srt
Nat. Gas {image}
Hi Str

I am looking to go long N. gas as well but I dont know whether we will see 3.8000 though...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,355
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:46pm Jan 8, 2014 7:46pm
Cocoa Weekly:
Tough resistance area but still looking to go long if near 1620.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: London Cocoa(Weekly)20140108204417.png Size: 41 KB
  • #3,356
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:49pm Jan 8, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi Str I am looking to go long N. gas as well but I dont know whether we will see 3.8000 though... Olu
Agree, that's why my first buy will be around 4.00 (higher red box). The lower box would be next buy level.
  • #3,357
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:55pm Jan 8, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Agree, that's why my first buy will be around 4.00 (higher red box). The lower box would be next buy level.

I hear you Srt...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,358
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:58pm Jan 8, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting srt
Cocoa Weekly: Tough resistance area but still looking to go long if near 1620. {image}
Was just thinking to put up a chart of cocoa. Battled this one with mixed success at the end of last year. I am looking for a short in this one. Price might not be able to take out resistance
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,359
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:48am Jan 9, 2014 4:48am
Hola! back from the holidays to find serious changes especially in Oil. I hope you all had nice holidays and a nice start of the new year. Happy new year to all with tones of pips!
  • #3,360
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:11pm Jan 9, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting rehab
Hola! back from the holidays to find serious changes especially in Oil. I hope you all had nice holidays and a nice start of the new year. Happy new year to all with tones of pips!

Welcome back Rehab. Yes crude oil has moved big time. I remember we were stalking a downmove at the end of last year. I believe some retracement is in store and a lot more downside

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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