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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #781
  • Jan 7, 2014 7:33am Jan 7, 2014 7:33am
Quoting lyubo
Hello hollowhead I pleased you to explore the picture and give me advice. Have I wait to reach the target of 47 pips level 68 +7 pips or not? {image}
Hi lyubo, I'm afaraid I can't give you any advise regarding your actual trade - it all depends on your risk appetite and whether you are using a SL or hedge.

One thing you need to be aware of before trading any system (esp this one) price does not run straight to a target - I am convinced it will get there eventually, but it can take a while and go against you quite significantly. You need to be very clear before entering any trade what you are going to do and when if it doesn't go the way you hope it will - there are no guarantees. This system gives great entry levels and targets, BUT money management is down to the individual.
  • #782
  • Jan 7, 2014 8:25am Jan 7, 2014 8:25am
I do think there is a huge psychological advantage to this method. How many times do people close early or bail out trades after they enter? - they get cold feet when there is a pulback and lose out. Or the price goes against their position straight away and they take a small loss - this keeps happening and the account suffers death by a thousand cuts. With abonacci we have the conviction that price will reach its target, and it does - sometimes it has DD, but it gets there. It gives me a confidence to hold on (many 'gurus' would say I'm playing with fire) but for me that confidence translates into an edge (I know many will say it's not an edge and I don't want to get into the semantics etc) - I've held trades for weeks but they have got to their targets and I've added to them and hedged them up and down along the way.

Hollowhead,

I totally agree. In the past when a trade started moving with strength against me, I would panic and take the loss. With Abonacci, I've had to ask myself if I believe in the strategy or not. When the answer was yes, I sat back and watched the drawdown turn into profit and eventually reach the target. A new level of confidence has been added to my trading with abonacci. What I have not quite figured out yet is the stop loss.

Alan
  • #783
  • Jan 7, 2014 9:12am Jan 7, 2014 9:12am
Quoting biganc
Hollowhead, I totally agree. In the past when a trade started moving with strength against me, I would panic and take the loss. With Abonacci, I've had to ask myself if I believe in the strategy or not. When the answer was yes, I sat back and watched the drawdown turn into profit and eventually reach the target. A new level of confidence has been added to my trading with abonacci. What I have not quite figured out yet is the stop loss. Alan
Alan, I think a number of folk are struggling with that. MM is key, and when there is no clear SL area it makes it hard to commit (or it should). I have looked at the subject every which way I can to see if there is an obvious SL area for each template which gives R:R of 1:1 minimum and there doesn't seem to be.

The only obvious place is on the opposite signal (which gives a bad R:R) or where bobi has specified that there is a trend change signal ie T4Y, but that would mean trading the T4Y in a way that bobi says it is not designed to (which I have done quite a lot btw). I have to say though that I am not convinced by the whole R:R issue - I think people end up choosing SLs and TPs to fit a nice R:R, not by what the trade dictates.

I decided to test the system as the author trades it by hedging and while I have quite a few brown trouser (pants for my US friends) moments - they all seem to come good in the end. It can become a massive pile of trades hedging each other (keeping a journal is really helpful to keep tabs on each trade and the reason/outcome etc) - but the 'knot' kind of unravels. I am very aware that it could blow up spectacularly on me and I try to be as careful as I can, but it is the only way I can think to trade it. I have always though of as the SL being the point at which you KNOW the trade is wrong. But, with this system I am never really sure any of the signals are WRONG per se, rather they are just not ready now - but I don't have an account big enough to cope with a massive DD while I am waiting for the 'right time', and still trade at a size where I am making money - so I have to mitigate that problem, which hedging does (plus it allows me to trade some of the action as price moves away from my TP, and if I am really brave trade it back again effectively doubling up).

I know for those in the US hedging is problem, but you could always have two accounts using one as a 'hedge account' where you place your hedged orders. Maybe have a demo hedge account and see how you get on - it can get complicated!!

(Alan, I am sure you know the following so it's not aimed at you)

IMPORTANT
Please do not take this as my recommendation to trade a certain way (I am a nobody and your success or not must be 100% dependent on you - trust no-ones recommendation without first checking you agree 100%. We must all do due diligence and decide which method of trading suits our personalities, we need to test, practice and use money that we can lose - if it blows up it should not keep us awake at night.

Just my waffle

Steve
  • #784
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:15am Jan 7, 2014 11:15am
Hi hollowhead.
Excuse me, a curiosity : but how do you make 1473 % on your own account if you're always here, in this thread ? When do you find time to trade ? How do you stay focused on your operations and simultaneously to answer all questions of FF members ?
Thank you ,
regards.
  • #785
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:22pm Jan 7, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Alan, I think a number of folk are struggling with that. MM is key, and when there is no clear SL area it makes it hard to commit (or it should). I have looked at the subject every which way I can to see if there is an obvious SL area for each template which gives R:R of 1:1 minimum and there doesn't seem to be. The only obvious place is on the opposite signal (which gives a bad R:R) or where bobi has specified that there is a trend change signal ie T4Y, but that would mean trading the T4Y in a way that bobi says it is not designed to (which...
Hollowhead,

If I am totally confident in the system and I trade a small enough amount of my account, I could trade without a stop loss at all. As you said instead of a stop loss, hedge. I am looking into some non regulated brokers that will allow a US citizen to hedge. There is one in particular that holds promise.
  • #786
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:29pm Jan 7, 2014 12:29pm
curious, a question:

the author never revealed his method, didn't he?

so you can never fish, but only eat fish from him, isn't that so?
  • #787
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:49pm Jan 7, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting franz
Hi hollowhead. Excuse me, a curiosity : but how do you make 1473 % on your own account if you're always here, in this thread ? When do you find time to trade ? How do you stay focused on your operations and simultaneously to answer all questions of FF members ? Thank you , regards.
Good question. I can't really answer right now as I'm on my phone - but I'll get back to you.
  • #788
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:52pm Jan 7, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting charvo
curious, a question: the author never revealed his method, didn't he? so you can never fish, but only eat fish from him, isn't that so?
No, I'm doing all the fishing. But Bobi lends me a few nets each year (and I'm gonna land every fish I can until Bobi stops loaning out nets.
  • #789
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:09pm Jan 7, 2014 1:09pm
yes, that's what i'm afraid. what if bobi stops loaning the nets? we cannot weave one, can we?

Quoting hollowhead
{quote} No, I'm doing all the fishing. But Bobi lends me a few nets each year (and I'm gonna land every fish I can until Bobi stops loaning out nets.
  • #790
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:31pm Jan 7, 2014 1:31pm
Quoting charvo
yes, that's what i'm afraid. what if bobi stops loaning the nets? we cannot weave one, can we? {quote}
No, probably not - but I might pay some clever people to try and work out how to .

I did think the same as you and I am still trading other methods to keep my hand in for if that time comes.

But, if someone said to you "Hey you can borrow my 100ft nets for a year if you like - no payment, no conditions, no guarantees I'll lend them to you next year.'
Would you reply 'No thanks, I'll stick to 2ft fishing rod. I want your nets forever or not at all."
I wouldn't. I'd say "Thanks" and spend a year emptying that lake of every fish I could find.

Right now we have baselines that can make a lot of pips on two pairs for a year - I'm going fishing.
  • #791
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:35pm Jan 7, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting biganc
{quote} Hollowhead, If I am totally confident in the system and I trade a small enough amount of my account, I could trade without a stop loss at all. As you said instead of a stop loss, hedge. I am looking into some non regulated brokers that will allow a US citizen to hedge. There is one in particular that holds promise.
Hope you get something sorted Alan - watch those non-regulated brokers, I hear some are not too great at giving you your money when you want it. Could you not go with a broker that is outside the US. I'm sure there are a few discussions and recommendations on here for what US citizens can do.
  • #792
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:54pm Jan 7, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting franz
Hi hollowhead. Excuse me, a curiosity : but how do you make 1473 % on your own account if you're always here, in this thread ? When do you find time to trade ? How do you stay focused on your operations and simultaneously to answer all questions of FF members ? Thank you , regards.
Hey Franz - back at my computer.

The thing about this method of trading is you don't have to watch the charts all day. I set the orders I want to trade and leave it alone. If one gets triggered I set the hedge order and wait. So I have more time than before. Seriously, I have never traded less, and yet been so profitable - there's a lesson in there that I have spent years trying to learn.

I am fortunate that in my day job I am very flexible and able to interact online. This is the first thread where I have felt I can contribute a little bit. When Bobi stopped posting for while, I was determined to keep the thread alive and discuss what he had given - I knew what he shared is priceless but I also know I need help from others to make sense of it and trade with it. I contribute hoping others will as well so we can learn from each other. Do I post too much? My only fear is that the trolls will discover the thread and kill it with usual cr*p. But till then...

Finally, I am also a little bit obsessive/compulsive - when I do something I do it with everything I have. I have spent 4 years learning and losing - I am determined to make my living from trading, but with a large family to support I have to be 100% confident that I can generate the cash I need. I am the same with communication (I work in that field), so when someone asks me something, I feel a compulsion to reply as soon as I can - I consider it rude to not respond.
  • #793
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:11pm Jan 7, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Magnat
Dear Bobi, on which price levels you see high and low points for euro for this year?
Magnat - just saw this post way back and thought it may go someway to answer a bit of your question.

Quoting aebab
. For example , according to template T16_1800 , EUR/USD will move to 1.4455 in the next year.
  • #794
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:16pm Jan 7, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting charvo
yes, that's what i'm afraid. what if bobi stops loaning the nets? we cannot weave one, can we? {quote}
Do you actually consider this as a positive contribution to the thread? If you are so paranoid please go elsewhere and spread your special brand of cheer.
  • #795
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:30pm Jan 7, 2014 2:30pm
If people reading this thread will actually TAKE THE TIME TO READ the posts from BOBI, JMSS59 AND HOLLOWHEAD and,
STUDY----then maybe just maybe they will contribute instead of dissing stuff they have no idea about. This strategy or system really works and by really studying it you can get the same results that HOLLOWHEAD mentioned above. He is not the only successful trader on this thread ---- but those of us who are successful have one thing in common --- we study and make trades and correct our mistakes and study and study and study. Steve is able to assist tremendously because of his communication skill and his dedication to becoming successful. BRAVO STEVE --keep on teaching and we will keep on learning!
Tom
  • #796
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:45pm Jan 7, 2014 2:45pm
The Baselines for the AUD/USD (2014)

T4Y_1130= 0.9889
T5_2_2= 0.9438
T4Y_680= 0.9025
T4F_220= 0.9001
T5_1_103= 0.9016
Learn to walk before you run
  • #797
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:47pm Jan 7, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting aebab
The Baselines for the AUD/USD (2014) T4Y_1130= 0.9889 T5_2_2= 0.9438 T4Y_680= 0.9025 T4F_220= 0.9001 T5_1_103= 0.9016
Yay!! Thanks Bobi.
  • #798
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:55pm Jan 7, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hey Franz - back at my computer. The thing about this method of trading is you don't have to watch the charts all day. I set the orders I want to trade and leave it alone. If one gets triggered I set the hedge order and wait. So I have more time than before. Seriously, I have never traded less, and yet been so profitable - there's a lesson in there that I have spent years trying to learn. I am fortunate that in my day job I am very flexible and able to interact online. This is the first thread where I have felt I can contribute a little...
Hi hollowhead;
First of all , I should appreciate for all your works and contribution in the thread. The best way to learn is to teach and help others . Because you have to study to answer the questions and I see you are the best in the thread. Thanks a lot.
About stop loss, I should say if you can not find a clear stop loss in a strategy , you should not rely on it! I said I use hedging if I use only templates for trading. But I never do like that! Because I have a special calculator that generates signals and I use those levels that the calculator offers in conjunction with the templates to set a clear stop loss. I will try to develop a calculator for the forum users .The calculator only works with close of any candles in every time frames. 1 Min to Daily candles. Just enter a close , nothing else , the calculator will show the actual bullish and bearish levels with targets .I will inform you and also some others to have a private chat to learn the calculator and then when I can not be in the forum , the group can lead the forum with the calculator.
Learn to walk before you run
  • #799
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:03pm Jan 7, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting aebab
The Baselines for the AUD/USD (2014) T4Y_1130= 0.9889 T5_2_2= 0.9438 T4Y_680= 0.9025 T4F_220= 0.9001 T5_1_103= 0.9016

MANY THANKS Bobi !!!!!!!!!!!
  • #800
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:03pm Jan 7, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting aebab
{quote} Hi hollowhead; First of all , I should appreciate for all your works and contribution in the thread. The best way to learn is to teach and help others . Because you have to study to answer the questions and I see you are the best in the thread. Thanks a lot. About stop loss, I should say if you can not find a clear stop loss in a strategy , you should not rely on it! I said I use hedging if I use only templates for trading. But I never do like that! Because I have a special calculator that generates signals and I use those levels that the...
Bobi - I'm only too help in anyway I can - without you the thread is a bit like the blind leading the blind, but I know if you spent all day here you would get bombarded with the same questions over and over and wouldn't be able to do things like build a calculator!! Many of us have made good money and we owe that to you. A calculator for SL would be fantastic and so appreciated.

Stay well

Steve
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