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Sonic R. System

  • #63,801
  • Jan 6, 2014 7:23pm Jan 6, 2014 7:23pm
Quoting JohnBull
{quote} In this case the highest activities represent the MMs Loading shorts?
Buy low, sell high.

Higher activity at highs indicates bears at work, but were they selling to close longs, or selling to open shorts. After repeated trips to highs, my guess was the market makers were filling short orders for banks and accumulating short orders for themselves to sell back into the market for profit later when the price starts to really drop and lots of requests for shorts start to come in.
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  • #63,802
  • Jan 6, 2014 7:41pm Jan 6, 2014 7:41pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} {quote} Predicting is Folly. Possibility Thinking is Profitable. Regarding AU: Can we really conclude that AU is in a uptrend? Maybe it is just ranging. Maybe the ranging is for the accumulation of longs, but maybe the ranging is for the accumulation of shorts. Personally, from doing PVSRA on lower TFs, I conclude the price has been ranging for the purpose of accumulation of longs, but that an uptrend has not yet taken hold. If and when an uptrend starts, with the prospects of USD strengthening, the uptrend might be short lived....
Might Be in the Works Now

The H4, not quite half over with for this broker server time zone, shows price has already struck down to lows. This might be the market makers manipulating the price lower to create liquidity for their own long order accumulation by hitting stops on longs and by triggering pending short orders. Note that the Dragon seems close now to crossing up thru the Trend. Note also that this entire episode wherein the market makers kept price within a range, is an example of higher activity at lower prices; buy low, sell high.
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  • #63,803
  • Edited 8:25pm Jan 6, 2014 8:12pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UCad Short Trade Update: Added shorts #5-6, Scouts. Added short #5, Scout. In the after-hours market last session the MMs worked the price upwards on low activity; resetting the price higher to resume accumulation of short orders. This new Asian open continued the push up, achieving a 50% retrace of the last move down yesterday. Here I added another short Scout. This sort of price manipulation by the MMs might continue, and price might go higher. We cannot know how price will move. That is a fact! However, this seems a decent place to take...
UCad Short Trade Update:

Added short #7, Scout. Yesterday the Asian session MMs did not have these high prices to take advantage of. I believe this is why the price is back up. Asian session market makers have whisked the price up on declining volume in order to accumulate more short orders themselves. And this is an example of why we cannot know how price will move next. The market makers, different ones in different sub-sessions of the day, manipulate prices to create liquidity to fill orders and to be sure they are themselves always among the lowest buyers and the highest sellers. Not knowing how price will next move is not a problem. We just have to be aware of how the market works, look for opportunities to enter trades, and look for appropriate opportunities to support trades with further entries later.
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  • #63,804
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:37pm Jan 6, 2014 10:37pm
Thank you very much for your analysis on the few currency pairs above, traderathome. It's enlightening on how you analyze with pvsra. On the gj, I thought mm can be either building short or long, based on m15. On point 1 & 3 on the chart, it looks like mm is building long, but on point 2, mm seems to be building short. I'm more convince that mm is building long, but market doesn't care what I think. Market will tell us soon.

I suppose mm is as greedy too, and therefore, I tested them on uc at pending short at 1.06743 (close to 1.06750 (3/4 #). I suppose mm will revisit above this 3/4 #, as happened y'day and on 2nd jan. Oh, as I was writing here, this order is triggered.
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  • #63,805
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:08pm Jan 6, 2014 11:08pm
Gonna be the hunter or get hunted??



Sonic
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  • #63,806
  • Edited Jan 7, 2014 12:14am Jan 6, 2014 11:42pm | Edited Jan 7, 2014 12:14am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Gonna be the hunter or get hunted?? Sonic {image}
NU

Sonic, be careful because this is a bullish pattern, and it is on your favorite "bias validating" time frame chart. Not only is the combination of candles a bullish pattern, but note also the potential for L-H-HL-HH. All it needs is for price to break up thru the whole number again. Should that happen, I bet it goes very bullish.
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  • #63,807
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:42pm Jan 6, 2014 11:42pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Gonna be the hunter or get hunted?? Sonic {image}
Why do you make 2 entries?
  • #63,808
  • Jan 6, 2014 11:52pm Jan 6, 2014 11:52pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} NU Long trade Update: Added longs #2-3. Added long #2, a Scout 10x normal size. I have been expecting a whip down by the market makers looking to stop out longs and use the liquidity to fill their own long orders at the lows. When I saw this, I added to my long trade, increased from the normal size of my entries. Added long #3, another Scout which was a pending order set after I opened the trade, in case the MMs whacked the price. They did. {image}
NU Long trade Update:

Added long #4, Scout 10x normal size. M1 PVSRA shows spots of both high activity and concentrated activity at these lows.
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  • #63,809
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:10am Jan 7, 2014 12:10am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Gonna be the hunter or get hunted?? Sonic {image}

sonicdeejay, none of the above, hehehe. My SL is bigger then what mm can move in a day. It has to be this way, if I'm playing the way traderathome, loeil and other traders here, where we might be taking quite a number of trades for the same currency pair. Unfortunately for me, I have a small account, and therefore, I will be more selective in what to trade
  • #63,810
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:53am Jan 7, 2014 12:53am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UCad Short Trade Update: Added short #7, Scout. Yesterday the Asian session MMs did not have these high prices to take advantage of. I believe this is why the price is back up. Asian session market makers have whisked the price up on declining volume in order to accumulate more short orders themselves. And this is an example of why we cannot know how price will move next. The market makers, different ones in different sub-sessions of the day, manipulate prices to create liquidity to fill orders and to be sure they are themselves always among...
I somehow fail to check on the forex calendar, before I short uc. traderathome, since you have 7 positions open, and there will be 3 high impact news (1 usd & 2 cad data), may I know what is yr plan, before the news arrive? I'm not sure what to do at the moment. Most probably, I will re-evaluate again at the open of LS, and 2 hrs before the Trade Balance for usd & cad, I will decide whether to continue with the trade, or close it. I don't want to risk the fact that bad data for cad & good data for usd, would be double trouble for shorting uc.
  • #63,811
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:58am Jan 7, 2014 12:58am
GU Comment

This looks like a Classic short setup, but the LS has not arrived. Both the early LS and the US open might cause this to rise, maybe back up to the MR1 pivot area. We just cannot know. This looks good enough though, a break down from a whole number, that we should be thinking the MMs might want to stop out shorts and accumulate short orders themselves at higher prices before letting this run.
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  • #63,812
  • Edited 1:19am Jan 7, 2014 1:06am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting Avenger999
{quote} I somehow fail to check on the forex calendar, before I short uc. traderathome, since you have 7 positions open, and there will be 3 high impact news (1 usd & 2 cad data), may I know what is yr plan, before the news arrive? I'm not sure what to do at the moment. Most probably, I will re-evaluate again at the open of LS, and 2 hrs before the Trade Balance for usd & cad, I will decide whether to continue with the trade, or close it. I don't want to risk the fact that bad data for cad & good data for usd, would be double trouble for shorting...
News Events

Avenger999,

I don't trade the news. In a way, I just trade the news event because I just trade the charts, news or no news. I don't care what the news might be, and I believe the MMs already know enough so that what they are planning is evident in the charts. Remember, there are no regulations prohibiting "insider trading" in this market. In any case, the charts tell us what is happening. Even if we could know in advance what the news would be, that has nothing to do with what the MMs might be planning.

Yes, the MMs could whisk the price against your trade, maybe to stop out traders because the trade direction is right. But if you have a tight SL, you lose anyway. Or, the MMs could genuinely take the price off in the opposite direction of the trade, which could be a problem. It is what it is.

Conclusion: Trade your chart! If the news event worries you, don't be in a trade when it happens. Wait an hour or more, let the dust settle. If a trade opportunity does not arrive, there is always the next trading day.
  • #63,813
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:34am Jan 7, 2014 2:34am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} News Events Avenger999, I don't trade the news. In a way, I just trade the news event because I just trade the charts, news or no news. I don't care what the news might be, and I believe the MMs already know enough so that what they are planning is evident in the charts. Remember, there are no regulations prohibiting "insider trading" in this market. In any case, the charts tell us what is happening. Even if we could know in advance what the news would be, that has nothing to do with what the MMs might be planning. Yes, the MMs could whisk...
Thanks for the tip, traderathome. Based on yr comment, I suspect you are purely a technical trader (all info are already in the chart). I'm more on fundamental, but I'm trying hard to strengthen my technical skill too.
  • #63,814
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:48am Jan 7, 2014 2:48am
Can I get your view on CJ please Tah? It seems to me that MMs are opening longs by buying from low prices. 115 is becoming a very strong support. What do you think?
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  • #63,815
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:26am Jan 7, 2014 3:26am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} NU Sonic, be careful because this is a bullish pattern, and it is on your favorite "bias validating" time frame chart. Not only is the combination of candles a bullish pattern, but note also the potential for L-H-HL-HH. All it needs is for price to break up thru the whole number again. Should that happen, I bet it goes very bullish. {image}

Thx for the kind reminder....Feeling humbled to get reminded by you... Professor...


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Sonic H.. initiated..


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Sonic
  • #63,816
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:36am Jan 7, 2014 3:36am
Quoting Avenger999
{quote} sonicdeejay, none of the above, hehehe. My SL is bigger then what mm can move in a day. It has to be this way, if I'm playing the way traderathome, loeil and other traders here, where we might be taking quite a number of trades for the same currency pair. Unfortunately for me, I have a small account, and therefore, I will be more selective in what to trade

I do not hunt sonikers' SL..

Sonikers are too smart for that..

Sonic
  • #63,817
  • Jan 7, 2014 4:15am Jan 7, 2014 4:15am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} I do not hunt sonikers' SL.. Sonikers are too smart for that.. Sonic
Of course you don't hunt sonikers' SL, sonicdeejay. You help them to TP!
  • #63,818
  • Jan 7, 2014 5:00am Jan 7, 2014 5:00am
EU
Re-entered long trade.
Scout from 1h chart. Wave formed earlier on 15min chart.
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  • #63,819
  • Jan 7, 2014 5:17am Jan 7, 2014 5:17am
Quoting JRissa
EU Re-entered long trade. Scout from 1h chart. Wave formed earlier on 15min chart. {image} {image}
Nice target JRissa. By the way, what is the name of indicator that shown other timeframe on the right of your chart. Can I get the link to download it?
  • #63,820
  • Jan 7, 2014 5:20am Jan 7, 2014 5:20am
Quoting MrAmazing
{quote} Nice target JRissa. By the way, what is the name of indicator that shown other timeframe on the right of your chart. Can I get the link to download it?

Pipware minichart.
Click on the paperclip up right on this thread and go to page 3
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