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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,821
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:36pm Jan 5, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting infinitus
How can you try to find some "new" counting methods, when all you ever read was a page one of a thread? The Elliott Wave Principle from Frost and Prechter is the Bible
Bible to success?
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #71,822
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:09am Jan 6, 2014 2:09am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} How can you try to find some "new" counting methods, when all you ever read was a page one of a thread? The Elliott Wave Principle from Frost and Prechter is the Bible

im trying back to the very basic.
one more thing, in your experience on counting impulsive, do you ever see extended first wave, extended third wave and extended fifth wave in the same segment 5 wave move?
i recall one of the book's author stating that most likely there's only maximum 2 extended impulsive wave.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,823
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:19am Jan 6, 2014 3:19am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} im trying back to the very basic. one more thing, in your experience on counting impulsive, do you ever see extended first wave, extended third wave and extended fifth wave in the same segment 5 wave move? i recall one of the book's author stating that most likely there's only maximum 2 extended impulsive wave.

Most of the time there is one extended wave. Two extended can happen too. but three, I would say it is a no-go
  • #71,824
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:22am Jan 6, 2014 3:22am
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} Bible to success?

read back what I wrote: I clearly stated that traditional EW has its shortcomings too. But it is THE book which makes the most sense, shows ample of evidence and the theory is laid out etc.


The bible to success is simply in our heads. The demon inside will decide if we fail or succeed, simply as that......
  • #71,825
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:16am Jan 6, 2014 8:16am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Most of the time there is one extended wave. Two extended can happen too. but three, I would say it is a no-go

oh, let me cross check if the impulse from 329x till 1.3576 is two extended. and cross checking impulse after flat end at 1.3489
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,826
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:27am Jan 6, 2014 8:27am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} oh, let me cross check if the impulse from 329x till 1.3576 is two extended. and cross checking impulse after flat end at 1.3489
have you thought abot the possibility, that this wave is no impulse but a corrective wave up?4

Look at the wave structure - many overlapping subwaves

even with much fantasy I can not label it as leading diagonal
  • #71,827
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:45am Jan 6, 2014 8:45am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} have you thought abot the possibility, that this wave is no impulse but a corrective wave up?4 Look at the wave structure - many overlapping subwaves even with much fantasy I can not label it as leading diagonal

yea, i thought first as 5-3-5 but it failed to kiss 3622 or 3610 at zz simple downward corrective.then it shoot up
alternating 2 shallow and 4 deep give me idea if the fifth is completed with fast shoot up.
and the fibo 1.27xx till 1.32xx placed on 1.329x give more 100 percent..its extended fifth rite? with 1.3710 rejection
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,828
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:49am Jan 6, 2014 8:49am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} oh, let me cross check if the impulse from 329x till 1.3576 is two extended. and cross checking impulse after flat end at 1.3489

alternative count is at 329x and 352x. 3624x
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,829
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:02am Jan 6, 2014 9:02am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} alternative count is at 329x and 352x. 3624x

when bigger structures are already finished and in place, like now, simply look at bigger picture:

where are overlapping wave structures? Where are clean impulses?

Have I fairly good inter-wave-fib-relationships? If not, most likely corrective or complex corrective pattern. And so on......


Why bother with the subwaves inside of the 329 to 357 move now? The waves inside are badly overlapping.

So start with simply labeling the 357 top as a W-wave (we can not count an impulse, we can not count a zigzag, we can not count a flat - so correction is complex, hence W-wave)
  • #71,830
  • Jan 6, 2014 12:43pm Jan 6, 2014 12:43pm
Jeet Kun Do and the zen of forex trading

Lame title I know, but I thought I would share something I learned at the turn of the year while practicing martial arts.

A teacher in JKD (Jeet Kun Do, made famous by Sijo Bruce Lee) was telling my friend and me a story of what he learned one day on a golf course. While practicing his swing with little success, a man near him looked over and asked "You know how you know when you are done swinging?". The teacher replied, "Do tell."

The stranger came closer and said, "You know that swing you made wear the golf ball flew the farthest and with the best accuracy and made you feel great?" "Yes", the teacher replied.

"How many balls ago was that?

The teacher thought, "Three or four."

"Do you know why it felt so great?"

"Why?"

"Because" the man said, "it was effortless." The teacher was struck with realization. Of course! Ever since he had made that shot he had tried duplicate it only to send one into a sand trap, another three feet forward, and another that endangered the life of an unsuspecting onlooker who fortunately had not noticed death flying inches past his head. "You have been "trying" ever since only making yourself fail. When you make that effortless shot, you're done; just stop."

My teacher explained that when you are practicing and you suddenly throw that perfect punch or kick, let it be, and move on to the next venture. Your practice is paying off and you are improving. When you try and think, you lose. The technique felt so great because it was effortless.

I see parallels in the things I am actively pursuing so it is not difficult for me to see the possible lesson as a trader. After all of the analysis, research, education, and time spent looking at charts, when you go to press that execute trade button it should feel effortless, or perhaps in our case, certain. Few things are worse to me then making a trade I am frankly not very confident about. And even worse, after making a great trade, thinking I have now mastered time and space and may make a winning trade whenever I want only to swing and miss terribly. If all of the signals are just barely pointing toward a decision, maybe you should stop and move on.

Another quick but important lesson I learned the same day was that you must have fun when practicing, because you are going to get hit; it's just a matter of time. And when you get hit, if you are not having fun, you will tense and become emotional, then you will make emotional decisions and you will not be able to punch and move quickly. However, if you are having fun, you can shake off the hit, stay relaxed and continue while your opponent is thinking, "That was my best punch and he his smiling." What if you could trade like that? If you are prepared for the worst the market has to offer and enjoying trading in the toughest of circumstances, then how could you truly lose? Yes, investing be separated from emotion, but there is nothing wrong enjoying a win or being content in a temporary loss. It is when we hold on to those moments that we get stuck and do not move forward when we should admire the moment for what it is and let it be.

Happy New Year everyone!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #71,831
  • Jan 8, 2014 1:40am Jan 8, 2014 1:40am
Time based study

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  • #71,832
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:28am Jan 8, 2014 10:28am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} the way I see it (non ewp view) is that a very strong and old slate blue tl with recently third touch on resistance was not broken and therefore the drop from 1.3893 towards now magenta tl 1.355x magenta tl looking for support at 1.355x breaks that should attract price towards yellow tl yellow tl support should still validate the ab=cd scenario target of 1.4427 blue and yellow tl confluence of 1.3236 brown and magenta confluence at 1.4435 right now I be buying on dips with support of magenta or yellow in mind {image}
Still waiting to buy at 1.3550
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,833
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:52am Jan 8, 2014 10:52am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} Still waiting to buy at 1.3550
IMO it's a great spot to buy when considering RR.
However, we have a few major event risks ahead of us... FOMC minutes, ECB statement and NFP.
Therefore I'm going to be very cautious till Monday.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,834
  • Jan 8, 2014 11:18am Jan 8, 2014 11:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} IMO it's a great spot to buy when considering RR. However, we have a few major event risks ahead of us... FOMC minutes, ECB statement and NFP. Therefore I'm going to be very cautious till Monday.
thanks PT
i'll be taking partial entry at about 1/5 at 1.3350....then like you say a careful attention with fed meeting, ecb, and nfp
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thanks,
G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,835
  • Jan 8, 2014 11:41am Jan 8, 2014 11:41am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} thanks PT i'll be taking partial entry at about 1/5 at 1.3350....then like you say a careful attention with fed meeting, ecb, and nfp {image} thanks, G
This is only a hunch Gno, but I strongly feel we're going to get a risk-on rally today after the FOMC minutes. The techs are streched to the downside on the Euro with bullish divergence building on H4 and H1. That has to be good for a bounce especially from the 3550 level which is home to a longer term rising trend line.

Therefore, I may just participate today, but like you it will only be a partial position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,836
  • Jan 8, 2014 12:14pm Jan 8, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} thanks PT i'll be taking partial entry at about 1/5 at 1.3350....then like you say a careful attention with fed meeting, ecb, and nfp {image} thanks, G
an h4 or d1 close under 3500 area should make my long invalid and will be looking at short position for target of 1.2925
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,837
  • Jan 8, 2014 12:32pm Jan 8, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} This is only a hunch Gno, but I strongly feel we're going to get a risk-on rally today after the FOMC minutes. The techs are streched to the downside on the Euro with bullish divergence building on H4 and H1. That has to be good for a bounce especially from the 3550 level which is home to a longer term rising trend line. Therefore, I may just participate today, but like you it will only be a partial position.
scaling in with sm longs tdy...myself...hoping for a rally...will scale in all the way down to par 1.3500 area...
  • #71,838
  • Jan 8, 2014 12:39pm Jan 8, 2014 12:39pm
100 dma previous couple times proved to be holding.

Right now sitting at 1.3535

We may get a leak below 1.35 to shake the tree.

SO scaling in would be wise for a long... I plan on doing same...
  • #71,839
  • Jan 8, 2014 1:10pm Jan 8, 2014 1:10pm
No earth shattering reaction from the FOMC minutes.
I'm still favoring longs on the Euro, but I think I'll sit on my hands until the ECB presser and the NFP release are behind us.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,840
  • Jan 8, 2014 1:17pm Jan 8, 2014 1:17pm
Fed minutes: Most participants saw taper as appropriate, cautious first step
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101320688

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