EurAnalysis | Page 3591 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #71,801
  • Edited 7:59am Jan 4, 2014 7:47am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} its above 55, flat target 3360?
I have defended 355x ..was the target ..
but I can look at 336x price... it is no absurdity..after all it is only (month S2) ...

I see that the price has not closed above 3839 ( mid of the big range 1642 to 6037) on daily chart...
but of course it is not an easy target ...and is invalidated if daily closed above 3843. but this is only my analize.
  • #71,802
  • Jan 4, 2014 9:12am Jan 4, 2014 9:12am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi PT, I would not take the 1.44 to 1.45 as a given, when it is under the assumption, that a triangle's E wave has to reach the line connecting wave A and C. In EWP we can read on Page 49 that the wave E can undershoot as well as overshoot, and that this does happen more often than not. Furthermore, Swannell in his work shows, that the relation of wave C and wave E of the contracting triangle is most of the time between 30% and around 66%. When we assume the top is in for wave E we have around 60% On the other hand, the relationship of wave...
You make some very solid arguments. So from your perspective, what would it take to invalidate the bearish outlook you have presented in both your probable scenarios?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,803
  • Jan 4, 2014 9:47am Jan 4, 2014 9:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You make some very solid arguments. So from your perspective, what would it take to invalidate the bearish outlook you have presented in both your probable scenarios?
the way I see it (non ewp view) is that a very strong and old slate blue tl with recently third touch on resistance was not broken and therefore the drop from 1.3893 towards now magenta tl 1.355x
magenta tl looking for support at 1.355x breaks that should attract price towards yellow tl
yellow tl support should still validate the ab=cd scenario target of 1.4427
blue and yellow tl confluence of 1.3236
brown and magenta confluence at 1.4435

right now I be buying on dips with support of magenta or yellow in mind
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdjan4w1tl.png Size: 101 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #71,804
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:14am Jan 4, 2014 11:14am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} the way I see it (non ewp view) is that a very strong and old slate blue tl with recently third touch on resistance was not broken and therefore the drop from 1.3893 towards now magenta tl 1.355x magenta tl looking for support at 1.355x breaks that should attract price towards yellow tl yellow tl support should still validate the ab=cd scenario target of 1.4427 blue and yellow tl confluence of 1.3236 brown and magenta confluence at 1.4435 right now I be buying on dips with support of magenta or yellow in mind {image}
My thoughts exactly.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,805
  • Jan 4, 2014 5:01pm Jan 4, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Very interesting
if that pattern happens again i´m drunk the rest of the year
just do it
  • #71,806
  • Edited 7:54pm Jan 4, 2014 6:43pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} My thoughts exactly.

rumours said Sidogiri micro financial institution runs a pending sell order at 1.4250 with stop 1.43 and a moving target for the rest of the years. their nearest target is at 1.3485

edit:
i just got a call, their rival institution Bina Usaha Sejahtera micro financial institution, entering counterposition tommorrow targetting 1.47 with rival's tp as SL !!!

damn this world is crazy competition....
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,807
  • Jan 4, 2014 7:07pm Jan 4, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You make some very solid arguments. So from your perspective, what would it take to invalidate the bearish outlook you have presented in both your probable scenarios?


Hi PT,

sorry for answering so late.

Well, very hard question. You know, in such complex corrections nearly everything can happen without invalidating much.

e.g.:

Variant A, where we have ended wave yellow B

yellow A is a zigzag, wave B is a double three (D3)

so we do await an ABC-flat (yellow). now waiting for impulse wave C

Yellow wave B may extend further. Per Swannells work, a B-wave of an ABC-flat can travel nearly 200% of wave A. That means, even near 1.80 this count will not be invalidated (poor bears LOL) (boy, that would suck)

Another case: yellow B is now a double three. Per Swannels work a B-wave of a flat can not be a triple three. So when n another smaller down-up sequence in form of corrective waves develop, we have to look for another solution.


With variant B it gets even worse, because, as I laid out, it may not be a valid triangle at all.


Such long time corrective moves suck big time, simply because nearly anything can happen in the end, and you will find everytime a new solution for counting.

As I have stated so often: most Elliotticans give their gains back in complex corrections. Best way to play such complex corrections is to relay mainly on S/R zones, volume, and momentum. And to play it step by step rather than to hit the homerun.

EU right now seems to be one of the worse pairs to bet on a homerun


If not already short you might consider short here with a SL just above the last high in the 389x handle if MM allows
  • #71,808
  • Jan 5, 2014 1:45am Jan 5, 2014 1:45am
"Ultimately, if the ECB announces a FLS-like LTRO, it could prove supportive for the Euro. Absent a massive carte blanche liquidity injection like LTRO1 and LTRO2 in December 2011 and February 2012, respectively, measures geared specifically towards faster employment growth, a rebound in the housing market, and a healthier consumer should limit Euro weakness. The ECB is likely to have a very limited scope for easing in the 1Q’14, giving the Euro ample opportunity to appreciate further. Near-term selloffs may be viewed as longer-term buying opportunities at present time. –CV" http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...ad_of_ECB.html
  • #71,809
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:10am Jan 5, 2014 9:10am
Forex: Position Adjustment Or Trend Reversal? by Marc Chandler
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1927...for_0_11&ifp=0
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,810
  • Jan 5, 2014 10:47am Jan 5, 2014 10:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Forex: Position Adjustment Or Trend Reversal? by Marc Chandler http://seekingalpha.com/article/1927...for_0_11&ifp=0

hey PT, seems like trend reversal..
this is my weekly chart for long term triangle analysis
detail:
its very clear the upward movement after 1.60 sell off is in 3 segment. next downward would be a c coz it did not beat the low 1.23xx
thus i copy PT labelling as corrective (first segment of triangle a leg)
after the first segment of triangle, there's an upward move in 5 wave non overlap and macd shows a littel divergence. but it did not beat high 1.60. thus i label as a not an impulse.
after this upward movement, there's a sell off action that beat all low after 1.60 sell off. the funny thing is if move to daily chart, there's more than 5 waves (around 7 waves and more)...thus i think this is dirty and cruel market sl hunt. becoz this movement, i expect next 2 segment to fix this dirty boys. and i found around 1.28xx is the end of the fixed movement.

after this, price move should be a c wave or a C wave. to complete the fix. then i scan for 5 wave move upward after 1.28xx, the first one that i found is ended at 1.469x. this is the 2nd segment of the triangle (b leg)...

the 3rd segment (c leg) (d leg) is same, without breaking the middle wave (b-wave) of the 3 wave move each previous leg.

now the 5 fifth segment (e-wave) is still in development because minimum target triangle has not been reached.

this is the best analysis i have created in my life..
please give me some critics and comment Piptrapper, infinitus, chessking and other traders that read my post.
i would like to find my errors and correct it for further development.

PS: there's an impulsive label at the c d e leg of triangle...that thing has the lowest probability becoz funny wave ii white
and there's a buy orders 0.01 lot. its demo and SL at 1.3580
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-w1-oanda-corporation.png Size: 53 KB
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,811
  • Jan 5, 2014 2:17pm Jan 5, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} hey PT, seems like trend reversal.. this is my weekly chart for long term triangle analysis detail: its very clear the upward movement after 1.60 sell off is in 3 segment. next downward would be a c coz it did not beat the low 1.23xx thus i copy PT labelling as corrective (first segment of triangle a leg) after the first segment of triangle, there's an upward move in 5 wave non overlap and macd shows a littel divergence. but it did not beat high 1.60. thus i label as a not an impulse. after this upward movement, there's a sell off action...
Sorry, but I don't understand your blue count as I am not familiar with that style of counting. Therefore it would not be right for me to give you a critique.
Perhaps Infinitus or Chess King know more on the subject than I do.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,812
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:20pm Jan 5, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Sorry, but I don't understand your blue count as I am not familiar with that style of counting. Therefore it would not be right for me to give you a critique. Perhaps Infinitus or Chess King know more on the subject than I do.

can not imagine that blue is valid either on EW, HEW, or Neowave
  • #71,813
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:23pm Jan 5, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Sorry, but I don't understand your blue count as I am not familiar with that style of counting. Therefore it would not be right for me to give you a critique. Perhaps Infinitus or Chess King know more on the subject than I do.

thats alright PT. i am planning to add/edit many improvisation on eur/usd counting and to find more strange occurance in market movement.
one part is to find 3 waves movement and label as -b- wave ( mr ian copsey give me idea), the other part is find 5 waves non overlap and label temporary as -c- wave.

this two parts left is undecided,
i. -a- wave is can be 3 waves at flat and 5 waves at zz (CEW) and wave -a- always 5 waves (HEW). Can we call 3 wave movement as -a- / -c- wave or as A / C wave ?
ii. can A and B label paired with only -c- label or can -a- label be paired with B label and C label ?

please guide me to answer this 2 questions Pip.
Thanks in advance.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,814
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:26pm Jan 5, 2014 6:26pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} can not imagine that blue is valid either on EW, HEW, or Neowave

this one http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post7190866
any help/comment on those i and ii ?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,815
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:33pm Jan 5, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} hey PT, seems like trend reversal.. this is my weekly chart for long term triangle analysis detail: its very clear the upward movement after 1.60 sell off is in 3 segment. next downward would be a c coz it did not beat the low 1.23xx thus i copy PT labelling as corrective (first segment of triangle a leg) after the first segment of triangle, there's an upward move in 5 wave non overlap and macd shows a littel divergence. but it did not beat high 1.60. thus i label as a not an impulse. after this upward movement, there's a sell off action...
I do not know what to say ... I have trouble understanding what to do with this chart...
  • #71,816
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:51pm Jan 5, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} thats alright PT. i am planning to add/edit many improvisation on eur/usd counting and to find more strange occurance in market movement. one part is to find 3 waves movement and label as -b- wave ( mr ian copsey give me idea), the other part is find 5 waves non overlap and label temporary as -c- wave. this two parts left is undecided, i. -a- wave is can be 3 waves at flat and 5 waves at zz (CEW) and wave -a- always 5 waves (HEW). Can we call 3 wave movement as -a- / -c- wave or as A / C wave ? ii. can A and B label paired with only -c-...




Do not know what you are trying to establish.......

Why invent something new?

Problem with Neely's Neowave: does someone fully understands it and is able to apply it while trading?

Problem with HEW: when you place enough fibs on the chart, one of them is surly hit

Problem with Elliott Wave: is also a pain in the butt on some things, like failed/ truncated fifths, or missing wave 5 and some others



But for me, when it comes to reliable (for me), I will simply go with EW. Look at HEW and what Ian labels: sometimes wave 1's are so small (to make the fibs fit), that the wave 1 can hardly be seen. For me has nothing to do with the right look etc.



Look where most momentum in a wave is located. Use or learn to use the Awesome oscillator. There is a wave 3 or C normally located.

Instead of looking for fibs desperately for turning points, look for strong S/R zones (best volume based S/R zones) and make your conclusions.



Regarding your blue count:

abcde is the code for triangle

a triangle can be sideways

a triangle can be running (then it runs a bit against the trend)

a triangle can be skewed (then it runs in direction of trend - that happens, when trend after a wave 3 remains very strong and forces the counter-wave 4 slightly in direction of trend)

a triangle can be expanding 5>4>3>2>1

a triangle can be contracting 1>2>3>4>5



The more EW gets bastardized and filled up with own rules and fantasy, the less likely it will work


JMHO
  • #71,817
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:12pm Jan 5, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} I do not know what to say ... I have trouble understanding what to do with this chart...
this chart of mine suggesting a sell zone at 1.4738 with stop 1.66
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do not know what you are trying to establish....... Why invent something new? Problem with Neely's Neowave: does someone fully understands it and is able to apply it while trading? Problem with HEW: when you place enough fibs on the chart, one of them is surly hit Problem with Elliott Wave: is also a pain in the butt on some things, like failed/ truncated fifths, or missing wave 5 and some others But for me, when it comes to reliable (for me), I will simply go with EW. Look at HEW and what Ian labels: sometimes wave...
so a three wave move cannot be labelled as C rite?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,818
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:19pm Jan 5, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} this chart of mine suggesting a sell zone at 1.4738 with stop 1.66 {quote} so a three wave move cannot be labelled as C rite?

per the rules and guidelines of EW

in an ABC-flat the C wave is an impulse

in an ABC zigzag the C wave is an impulse

in a triangle the C wave is no impulse, but also a corrective wave like a zigzag or double three


when the supposed to be C wave in a flat, for example, develops as corrective wave, most like something more complex is developing


Have you read the Elliott Wave Principle?
  • #71,819
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:22pm Jan 5, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} per the rules and guidelines of EW in an ABC-flat the C wave is an impulse in an ABC zigzag the C wave is an impulse in a triangle the C wave is no impulse, but also a corrective wave like a zigzag or double three when the supposed to be C wave in a flat, for example, develops as corrective wave, most like something more complex is developing Have you read the Elliott Wave Principle?

yes. i read the first page of the elliott wave trading thread (the one that almondeyed, ian and others post)
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,820
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:31pm Jan 5, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} yes. i read the first page of the elliott wave trading thread (the one that almondeyed, ian and others post)

How can you try to find some "new" counting methods, when all you ever read was a page one of a thread?

The Elliott Wave Principle from Frost and Prechter is the Bible
15 traders viewing now