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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,941
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:41am Jan 4, 2014 12:41am
Quoting seandean
{quote} In my specific case, if we see it, great – will we see it, I have no idea but we did see some weakness this week. The only scenario that can actually put me in a worse position is if we trade way below 103.50 by the end of next Friday, I’m talking about 102 or 101.50. The alternate to my strategy today would have been to get assigned on one of the two ITM options, which would have covered my open short future – going flat and taking a profit along with it. The other ITM option would have been rolled way out, the closest (but not lower) to...

That Nikkei has been quite bullish these last 6 months. We have Chinese New Years at the end of this month. Usually the market has a small run up before Chinese New Years. Before the run up though we usually see a dip followed by a spike up. We saw some selling where the Hang Seng in HK dropped over 500 points in one day this week. This has not happened in a while now. Do you see the Nikkei gaining or dropping this month?

I took a gamble and shorted the dollar against the YEN on Friday before the market closed. Not the smartest thing to do but I will be happy if we see $104 or lower next week. Long term I still see 110+ for the YEN this year.
  • #40,942
  • Jan 4, 2014 2:16am Jan 4, 2014 2:16am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} That Nikkei has been quite bullish these last 6 months. We have Chinese New Years at the end of this month. Usually the market has a small run up before Chinese New Years. Before the run up though we usually see a dip followed by a spike up. We saw some selling where the Hang Seng in HK dropped over 500 points in one day this week. This has not happened in a while now. Do you see the Nikkei gaining or dropping this month? I took a gamble and shorted the dollar against the YEN on Friday before the market closed. Not the smartest thing to...

Do you not think fridays candle close is bullish?
  • #40,943
  • Jan 4, 2014 5:17am Jan 4, 2014 5:17am
the gap between UJ buy and sell rate on Friday close is extremely close to each other. Usually the gap is larger. Anybody know what this points to?
  • #40,944
  • Jan 4, 2014 5:49am Jan 4, 2014 5:49am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} I think you're quite right. Yes - 104 itself is a road block. But to me personally the zone between 103,92 and 103,70 is the one that has some more key levels that might stop us from going south. 97 is of course possible but at the moment 101,13 is the most I could predict for this pair in near future (month or so) if we would break the above mentioned zones.
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} All this talk of 101, and 97 should just stop. The feds bullish, tapers bullish, Yen is bearish, and the UJ trend is up. Everything is in line to make new highs. We are getting higher highs and higher lows. Even on pullbacks the previous high is acting as support. Shorting this pair long term is ridiculous and could cost allot people on this forum reading that kind of dribble that dont know what they're doing money. My last buy was a little early but is back in the green now. I usually try and buy off support when there's a 100 - 150 pip...
Hello Jgcole. Did you read my post carefully enough to understand what I was saying? There are zones to be broken and moves to be confirmed before any actions taken. Trade what you see, not what you expect. I do so. I think that if you're vise enough you're doing the same thing. Also did my recent short order close indicate anything like going short long term to you? No zone were taken out, no confirmation so decisions were made according to what was offered by the market. Short order closed, profit is in my bank already and now I will stay aside to monitor the situation and take actions next week adjusting to the given situation. And I am staying to my position - if I'll get signals, I will definitely go short once more and try to reach my targets down south. If there won't be any reasons for that I will try to make money going up.

Now talking about the traders who don't have their own opinion and don't know what they're doing as you said - they should stop trading immediately as they will loose money because they don't know what to do with what they see on their charts.

All the best to you in 2014. Keep calm and trade safe!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #40,945
  • Jan 4, 2014 8:21am Jan 4, 2014 8:21am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} {quote} Hello Jgcole. Did you read my post carefully enough to understand what I was saying? There are zones to be broken and moves to be confirmed before any actions taken. Trade what you see, not what you expect. I do so. I think that if you're vise enough you're doing the same thing. Also did my recent short order close indicate anything like going short long term to you? No zone were taken out, no confirmation so decisions were made according to what was offered by the market. Short order closed, profit is in my bank already and now...
I understand what you were saying and I think we probably have pretty different trading styles. I trade what I see on my charts plus I like it to be backed by the fundamentals. My trades are more long term. So in this pair specifically the trend is up and when you see an opportunity to short it I see an opportunity for a buy.

There's nothing wrong with scalping. I myself prefer to spread my risk out and let my money work for me over a longer period of time.

Happy 2014 to you as well!
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,946
  • Edited 7:03pm Jan 4, 2014 6:45pm | Edited 7:03pm
Japan NIKKEI225 gapped down in previous days trading
Unfinished rally towards F=16558 and a new trigger down emerged. May return to 16193 but if only that little then prressure downwards should mount.

Options retail position ratios Long Calls / Short Puts 2% (-37%) Long Puts / Short Calls 98% (37%)

The signs of a YEN retracement are building up, though we can expect a pullback to the last high
  • #40,947
  • Jan 4, 2014 6:59pm Jan 4, 2014 6:59pm
all the best for the New Year http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WijEHQWGfI4
  • #40,948
  • Jan 5, 2014 4:59pm Jan 5, 2014 4:59pm
I am hoping to see 104.3 this week
  • #40,949
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:02pm Jan 5, 2014 5:02pm
You might even see that level tonight.
  • #40,950
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:17pm Jan 5, 2014 5:17pm
I actually decided to close my positions and wait for a correction at this point. Over 700 pips in seven weeks.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,951
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:19pm Jan 5, 2014 5:19pm
It looks to be heading to the levels prior to Mr. Ben speech. We shall see. Long term def up!
  • #40,952
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:28pm Jan 5, 2014 5:28pm
Maybe even lower....before we can attempt to break 106(Might even need more tapering). I am gonna ride this down as long as possible before I change position.(I am not telling anyone to short this pair) I am def bullish long term on this pair but trying to pick up a few pips. We shall see what develops in the next few hours. As for now this baby is retracing a bit. I am watching very closely.
  • #40,953
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:46pm Jan 5, 2014 5:46pm
100 pips down from the top, damn, I feel so smart
  • #40,954
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:47pm Jan 5, 2014 5:47pm
I have netted about 100 pips so far. I am still bullish longterm
  • #40,955
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:48pm Jan 5, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting Rizmeister
I have netted about 100 pips so far. I am still bullish longterm
hmm, where did you short to have 100 pips?
  • #40,956
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:51pm Jan 5, 2014 5:51pm
Looks like we're heading to 103.50-103.70 area like I thought. Still open to a bigger correction to 100.50-102 as well.

It can't just go up every day without having corrections otherwise it'll go to 150 this year. Gotta give it 5 years time or more to get to 150

Maybe 120 this year..
  • #40,957
  • Edited 6:06pm Jan 5, 2014 5:52pm | Edited 6:06pm
Happy New Year, boys! Looks like I missed a nice move down, just as I was predicting right around Christmas time. And no, I can't predict the future. It was just a more probable outcome considering we went from 97 to 105 without much of a correction. Abenomics has been out for over a year now. You shouldn't get this big of a move so late in the event. I just didn't stay in because low liquidity = big moves. We could have moved up 300-400 points on one of those low liquidity nights.

In any case, I had a great time off from all of this. The grind begins yet again! But I enjoy every single moment of it, just like all of you people.

If I can give you one piece of advice for 2014 and challenge you, stop over-leveraging and start thinking long-term. If you give yourself 10 years, you could easily turn 10K into 1M. If you continue leveraging up 1:100, 10 years down the line, you will have blown through tens of thousands of dollars with not even a single profitable year.
  • #40,958
  • Jan 5, 2014 5:52pm Jan 5, 2014 5:52pm
I just have many entries thats all.
  • #40,959
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:17pm Jan 5, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting card
Happy New Year, boys! Looks like I missed a nice move down, just as I was predicting right around Christmas time. And no, I can't predict the future. It was just a more probable outcome considering we went from 97 to 105 without much of a correction. Abenomics has been out for over a year now. You shouldn't get this big of a move so late in the event. I just didn't stay in because low liquidity = big moves. We could have moved up 300-400 points on one of those low liquidity nights. In any case, I had a great time off from all of this. The grind...

Truth. Over leveraging has killed me time and time again. It'll never work.
  • #40,960
  • Jan 5, 2014 6:20pm Jan 5, 2014 6:20pm
YO Ck87 you playing blackchip?I have seen your name on the sit and goes multi tabling I am pretty sure. Double or nothings?
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