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  • #867,841
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:40pm Jan 3, 2014 3:40pm
euro turd not going to bounce much. will short this shit on Sunday night.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,842
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:43pm Jan 3, 2014 3:43pm
GU D A little gap down sunday will be perfect ?
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #867,843
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:48pm Jan 3, 2014 3:48pm
I just thought that I could share one of my trading mistakes today, maybe others may learn from it. A trending market is a distribution of prices that is not "Bell shaped".
but you can see how the distributions smaller TF "minor auction" show the "trajectory" of price movement. Price was driving toward a bo of the LTF dist. I should of not have been trading, I need 3 days of market data to form analysis, we are only a couple of days in the new year. All my mistakes were avoidable. I decided to trade without a plan, and not doing my homework, also allowing myself to be distracted by other things. bell shape dist. "not trending", not bell shaped "trending" But it looks like we definately broke out of the 10 & 20 day LTF distributions. My mistake is not doing my analysis and had no clues of the odds of it happening. I took a trade in "anticipation" that the price would return to the LTF dist (Value). I should have cut my losses, but one thing in amt you ask is "what is price attempting to do?", and "How well is it doing with that attempt". I saw it as not doing very well, imo if the LTF had serious conviction, I think it would have rocketed. So the best I can do I hope that if "public" (retail) participation that caused the bo, theres still a chance the LTF my respond by returning price to value. And I could also be wrong..........lesson dont trade without a plan....................
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #867,844
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:56pm Jan 3, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting mzvega
I just thought that I could share one of my trading mistakes today, maybe others may learn from it. A trending market is a distribution of prices that is not "Bell shaped". but you can see how the distributions smaller TF "minor auction" show the "trajectory" of price movement. Price was driving toward a bo of the LTF dist. I should of not have been trading, I need 3 days of market data to form analysis, we are only a couple of days in the new year. All my mistakes were avoidable. I decided to trade without a plan, and not doing my homework, also...
YAWN
rat
  • #867,845
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:58pm Jan 3, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting mzvega
I just thought that I could share one of my trading mistakes today, maybe others may learn from it. A trending market is a distribution of prices that is not "Bell shaped". but you can see how the distributions smaller TF "minor auction" show the "trajectory" of price movement. Price was driving toward a bo of the LTF dist. I should of not have been trading, I need 3 days of market data to form analysis, we are only a couple of days in the new year. All my mistakes were avoidable. I decided to trade without a plan, and not doing my homework, also...
I have a rule of thumb:

when price moves 3 standard deviations of the Gaussian distribution, chance is much higher that it will trend further than simply doing mean reverting.

With that being said: when you have a movement of 3 SD, price can mean revert or partially mean revert, but as I said, chance for further trending after that is very high
  • #867,846
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:00pm Jan 3, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting mzvega
I just thought that I could share one of my trading mistakes today, maybe others may learn from it. A trending market is a distribution of prices that is not "Bell shaped". but you can see how the distributions smaller TF "minor auction" show the "trajectory" of price movement. Price was driving toward a bo of the LTF dist. I should of not have been trading, I need 3 days of market data to form analysis, we are only a couple of days in the new year. All my mistakes were avoidable. I decided to trade without a plan, and not doing my homework, also...
Agree need to see all market participants to jump in to get clear direction. As for E/U is more affected by EUR/X crosses. Could be wrong but that's the way I see it.
  • #867,847
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:07pm Jan 3, 2014 4:07pm
this thing did my rule of toe another time for the month. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post7062446

It did not touch the monthly pivot of December, and now it dropped below the monthly pivot of January. An earlier example is October and November.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,848
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:09pm Jan 3, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Agree need to see all market participants to jump in to get clear direction. As for E/U is more affected by EUR/X crosses. Could be wrong but that's the way I see it.
The boyz are back from Hamptons Monday.
Back to normal.
rat
  • #867,849
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:11pm Jan 3, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting ffleo
this thing did my rule of toe another time for the month. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post7062446 It did not touch the monthly pivot of December, and now it dropped below the monthly pivot of January. An earlier example is October and November. {image}
My rule of toe is that, if it misses this month pivot, it will try to touch next month pivot. If it misses two monthly pivot in a row in the same direction, target the third month pivot almost 100% certain.
If you do not believe me, pull all your charts out. check all time frames, no matter it is daily pivot, weekly pivot, or monthly pivot. My rule of toe works on any time frame.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,850
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:25pm Jan 3, 2014 4:25pm
My trade(s) for the week of 12/29.
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  • #867,851
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:34pm Jan 3, 2014 4:34pm
Daily close below yesterday's low. Aiming for 1.3523 next week?
  • #867,852
  • Jan 3, 2014 6:02pm Jan 3, 2014 6:02pm
The euro's uptrend is still intact, but, out of all the majors (along with the swissie), it's the one that has the most potential for a reversal...it's not time to get short yet, but it maybe coming...stay tuned...
  • #867,853
  • Jan 3, 2014 7:10pm Jan 3, 2014 7:10pm
Here to pimp my journal, mostly aussie outlook so far. As for EURUSD, still waiting for a retest of 3700 to go short. Hope it comes next week. I would think no one is long anymore but you never know.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #867,854
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:23pm Jan 3, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting Jason W
The euro's uptrend is still intact, but, out of all the majors (along with the swissie), it's the one that has the most potential for a reversal...it's not time to get short yet, but it maybe coming...stay tuned...
I think the same, GU and GJ maybe ready for a test to the recent high….maybe..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #867,855
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:30pm Jan 3, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting Jason W
The euro's uptrend is still intact, but, out of all the majors (along with the swissie), it's the one that has the most potential for a reversal...it's not time to get short yet, but it maybe coming...stay tuned...
How come?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #867,856
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:54am Jan 4, 2014 12:54am
Quoting Jason W
The euro's uptrend is still intact, but, out of all the majors (along with the swissie), it's the one that has the most potential for a reversal...it's not time to get short yet, but it maybe coming...stay tuned...
This is getting funnier every time, I peak into this thread... first, the pro-parrot kept people from shorting, now you...
  • #867,857
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:56am Jan 4, 2014 12:56am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} How come?

coz u buy with 3572 stop
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #867,858
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:03am Jan 4, 2014 1:03am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} coz u buy with 3572 stop
GL, that a nice stop.
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  • #867,859
  • Jan 4, 2014 1:42am Jan 4, 2014 1:42am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} GL, that a nice stop. {image}

your fibo can show price automatically? that mt tool or other platform?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #867,860
  • Jan 4, 2014 2:56am Jan 4, 2014 2:56am
EU_My five charts' worth_04.01.14

The more I look at this, the more I suspect a change in direction for the next quarter.

There are a lot of fundamental issues flying around Europe at the turn of the new year, and I think it will take a few weeks for these to settle down and become clearer… no need to write polemic speculation yet.

PA has breached the lower time frames' ascending Guppy profiles, but until I see a break south on the weekly, and then a retrace back up to kiss the broken Guppy profile, and also for this Guppy profile to act as a resistance, I will not be convinced of a decisive change in trend.

…although that pin printed last week is somewhat ominous. (As commented upon here)
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