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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,921
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:53am Jan 3, 2014 4:53am
Quoting atria
{quote} I have underwater short @103.07 closed long @104.94 from 104.42 before it went down. Now, waiting daily close to enter short again
Underwater short @ 104,07 - is that what you have in mind?
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #40,922
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:03am Jan 3, 2014 5:03am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} Underwater short @ 104,07 - is that what you have in mind?
No, Sir. Floating -136 pips since Fed December Taper.
Hope will be 0 in few weeks.
  • #40,923
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:08am Jan 3, 2014 5:08am
Quoting kweiss10
The US still has the default problem to answer by the 18th of Jan. No idea how this will factor in but most likely it will weaken the dollar until Washington comes up with a resolution. After that will the USD regain its strength because I dont think the US wants to default. But hey, I could be wrong.
My understanding is that the various parties have done a deal. There will be no more 'debt ceiling' or other 'government funding' issues of the type that occurred October last, until late 2015. This is because, in an uncommon flash of political insight, various people have listened to the wrath from the rest of the world, and the threats from the ratings agencies, and have agreed the framework for conducting business over the medium term.

.....as always I am open to contrary views.
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  • #40,924
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:18am Jan 3, 2014 5:18am
Quoting atria
{quote} No, Sir. Floating -136 pips since Fed December Taper. Hope will be 0 in few weeks.

Well that should have been a nerve breaking experience. I honestly believed that you mistyped the numbers. Well, looking at the price action you have some chances to get your floating loss even smaller. Maybe not today, as the range is full for the day. Don't know your strategy but also can't see the logic here. Did you have any plans where you would simply eliminate the position if it goes not as planned?
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  • #40,925
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:51am Jan 3, 2014 5:51am
Quoting atria
{quote} ...
Anyways - good luck to you. If you're planning to re-enter short then I would suggest to wait for a lift to 104,63 or 104,86. At the moment these places look like s/r zones. With some more confirmation these levels could generate an entry point. As for today - price action suggests that a small push south is still possible. But as I mentioned earlier - range is full already so I wouldn't take it as a signal to enter.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #40,926
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:57am Jan 3, 2014 5:57am
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  • #40,927
  • Jan 3, 2014 6:48am Jan 3, 2014 6:48am
I will wait till we hit closer to 100.00 then begin buying longs till we hit 110.00 at the end of 2014
  • #40,928
  • Jan 3, 2014 7:03am Jan 3, 2014 7:03am
added to my short,. lets see how it defends 104
  • #40,929
  • Jan 3, 2014 7:16am Jan 3, 2014 7:16am
I would not be surprised if this goes sideways for the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised if it goes sideways between 100 and say 108 for the next year.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #40,930
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:18am Jan 3, 2014 8:18am
maybe a good level to buy.
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  • #40,931
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:27am Jan 3, 2014 8:27am
Quoting wannabtrader
maybe a good level to buy. {image}
I think not yet. Sell is better. look in you image. Stiuation 30 Nov
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  • #40,932
  • Jan 3, 2014 8:41am Jan 3, 2014 8:41am
Quoting volky
{quote} I think not yet. Sell is better. look in you image. Stiuation 30 Nov {image}

havent taken a position yet.
still watching price around that level.
  • #40,933
  • Jan 3, 2014 10:20am Jan 3, 2014 10:20am
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  • #40,934
  • Jan 3, 2014 11:11am Jan 3, 2014 11:11am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} USD/JPY: TP1 @ 104,630 reached. Banked half of the position for 58 pips (0,6%, 1 R/R). The rest left running.
Banked the rest of my USD/JPY short order for another 82 pips (0,82%). Don't want to be loaded before the 'words of wisdom' from Mr. Bernanke later today. My working week is over. No active positions left through out the weekend. Wish all a nice weekend!
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  • #40,935
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:04pm Jan 3, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} I think you're quite right. Yes - 104 itself is a road block. But to me personally the zone between 103,92 and 103,70 is the one that has some more key levels that might stop us from going south. 97 is of course possible but at the moment 101,13 is the most I could predict for this pair in near future (month or so) if we would break the above mentioned zones.
All this talk of 101, and 97 should just stop. The feds bullish, tapers bullish, Yen is bearish, and the UJ trend is up. Everything is in line to make new highs. We are getting higher highs and higher lows. Even on pullbacks the previous high is acting as support.

Shorting this pair long term is ridiculous and could cost allot people on this forum reading that kind of dribble that dont know what they're doing money. My last buy was a little early but is back in the green now. I usually try and buy off support when there's a 100 - 150 pip pullback.

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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,936
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:15pm Jan 3, 2014 2:15pm
New Positions:

BOT 2 JAN03 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000910 [CLOSED/ROLLED AS PER BELOW]
SLD 2 JAN10 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0001170
SLD 2 JAN10 0.00985 Call Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000040

Existing Positions:

SLD 2 FEB07 0.0092 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000190
SLD 2 FEB07 0.0101 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200
SLD 1 JPY MAR14 Futures 0.009660
SLD 2 JAN03 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200 [CLOSED/ROLLED AS PER ABOVE]
SLD 2 JAN03 0.0106 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000170 [EXPIRED OTM]

Position Summary:

My existing position in the FEB07 series remains untouched.

My new position revolves exclusively around the JAN03 series, which was to expire today at 3PM EST and that the PUT options are ITM. Let’s get the CALL options out of the way, they will expire OTM.

I’ve decided to roll the PUT options over to JAN10, it costs me nothing to do so, and I actually gain a bit of extra premium care of Theta (exactly 260 points per contract). I also wrote some deep OTM CALL options for JAN10 to milk even a bit more out of the total trade (exactly 40 points per contract), these are purposely deep with regards to the time left as I don’t want them coming into play, ever. The open short future remains untouched for the time being, it’s currently profitable, however it serves more as a hedge versus a straight up speculation play.

The reason I’ve chosen to do this is it doesn’t add any additional risk to my original trade; it basically just extends it in time, not only for free but for a fair profit. I’m hoping, based on this trade, the pullback continues next week with Japan back online, possibly pulling the future back up towards 0.009650 (or approximately 103.50 in spot terms) to get the options OTM or ATM.
  • #40,937
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting seandean
New Positions: BOT 2 JAN03 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000910 [CLOSED/ROLLED AS PER BELOW] SLD 2 JAN10 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0001170 SLD 2 JAN10 0.00985 Call Fut. Option (6J2) 0.0000040 Existing Positions: SLD 2 FEB07 0.0092 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000190 SLD 2 FEB07 0.0101 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200 SLD 1 JPY MAR14 Futures 0.009660 SLD 2 JAN03 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200 [CLOSED/ROLLED AS PER ABOVE] SLD 2 JAN03 0.0106 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000170 [EXPIRED OTM] Position Summary: My existing position in the FEB07...
You still see 103.50 for next week?
  • #40,938
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:13pm Jan 3, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting stylinex
They may milk this one back up to about 104.70 now. After that hopefully the dollar will continue back down.
Went to 104.78, missed it by a bit. Let's see what next week brings us.
  • #40,939
  • Jan 3, 2014 3:28pm Jan 3, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} You still see 103.50 for next week?


In my specific case, if we see it, great – will we see it, I have no idea but we did see some weakness this week. The only scenario that can actually put me in a worse position is if we trade way below 103.50 by the end of next Friday, I’m talking about 102 or 101.50.

The alternate to my strategy today would have been to get assigned on one of the two ITM options, which would have covered my open short future – going flat and taking a profit along with it.

The other ITM option would have been rolled way out, the closest (but not lower) to 45 days and split between a CALL and PUT – essentially making up the 910 point price I had to pay to buy it back.

I don’t see myself repeating today’s strategy again next week if I’m still ITM. I will probably do the above, only because the week following next (Jan 13-17) has me opening both my 6J March options position and my much, much larger SGXNK (Nikkei 225) March options position.
  • #40,940
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:46pm Jan 3, 2014 4:46pm
UJ at mid channel right now could be resistance 104.84 doubt well see 100 unless it really breaks this channel hard and panic selling comes in
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