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  • #867,801
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:39pm Jan 3, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting Schickeria
SHS formation....... i got a Email from davidsayli..... LOL A nice weekend to all! {image}

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/i...fdtzII1-Ewk9_g
  • #867,802
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:41pm Jan 3, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting Patience
{quote} No worries. I was just a little surprised at your interest in him. That's all.
Only interested because everyone is talking highly of him. One day you will talk about me like that. One day. hahaha jk
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #867,803
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:42pm Jan 3, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Can i say something ?
Nevvvvvvvvvvvvvvvver!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #867,804
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:43pm Jan 3, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} agreed... i don't think it's necessarily stupid to buy here if you're super low levered (at 1.36, the R/R is roughly 1:1). i'm just particularly skeptical on the 20buck long whoever is holding it. i used to trade FX at a large bank, the experience was always the worst in the 10mm-30mm range with a 1-2% stop. for an institution, either you put on a very large size (100mm+ ), be able to weather 2-3% drawdowns, or you do small sizes (<5mm) tactically. anything in the middle and you're now big enough to cause some of the medium-term algos to...
I don't know man.. I have no visibility into that kind of info.. All I can do is try to decipher their foot prints only by looking at a chart..
  • #867,805
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} Only interested because everyone is talking highly of him. One day you will talk about me like that. One day. hahaha jk
Alrighty then. We'll see about that. Now I've really got to get ready. It's Friday night!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #867,806
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} Look Ken we know what the big charts look like and we don´t give a hoot at the moment. What we are all doing is trying to get into a decent trade here for an intra-day break. if we mange to get a runner on then great we will switch to the daily and have a butchers get your self on the dailys thread or something.
Hey relax don't worry I am not trying to steal the spotlight away from you and I don't need attention from internet.
You are the only real pro trader for 9 years here and a lot of people give a hoot about that
  • #867,807
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm Jan 3, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting attila
{quote} WHAAATTT? lol
What you are talking about is the start of a trending move ... the logic kind of escape me as to why ?!!! Why would you give a damn if the move is accurate or total bullshit ?

If you are talking about long term trade " 3 months " or something, you would sell blindly all the way from 1.36 / 1.38 maybe after tapering or before, and have a 500 pips threshold as Davit did. So, you wouldn't really care how you will get there ( Price was trading at multi year high, an ease off the top isn't the hardest thing to ask )

If its about a weekly trade and expected to hold it for few weeks, you threshold are near / at weekly lows and highs .. the candle formation there , and what happens at or below weekly lows. So, again how price goes there would be irrelevant!

But for intraday trades, how price behaves could be relevence - if it was pushing too hard in one direction with no reason, or slowly slowy .. but on a intraday trade, you would be looking for smaller gains - so why bother youself and over analysis!

What i'm trying to say is " It doesn't matter how price goes into one direction or another , what matters IMHO what you get out of it and if it was possible ?"
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,808
  • Edited 2:05pm Jan 3, 2014 1:55pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} What you are talking about is the start of a trending move ... the logic kind of escape me as to why ?!!! Why would you give a damn if the move is accurate or total bullshit ? If you are talking about long term trade " 3 months " or something, you would sell blindly all the way from 1.36 / 1.38 maybe after tapering or before, and have a 500 pips threshold as Davit did. So, you wouldn't really care how you will get there ( Price was trading at multi year high, an ease off the top isn't the hardest thing to ask ) If its about a weekly trade...
it depends on what each trader looks at.. I don't trade with very large S/L.. not too small either, more of a mental one.. you don't look how it gets there.. to me that is paramount.. for instance, if I were short for the long haul, I would not stay in this trade.. there is a big philosophical difference in approaching this thing.. one is price levels trading, the other is price movement trading.. think about it, it's a huge difference between the two.. I believe I am in the second category..

edit: to me it's not the what it does, it's how it does it..
  • #867,809
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:10pm Jan 3, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting attila
I believe I am in the second category..
true, but it wouldn't be effective near a bottom or low ... because reversals tend to be chaotic in nature and unpredictable! Ranging however, price tends to behave. At a high or a low, the structure of price is unsustainable that any small movement could cause a collapse. Which happened twice , at 1.38 market sold the Euro over a JP morgan paper predicting a rate cut next ECB meetings. The same happened Yesterday with credit Suisse calling for Euro to be the worst performing currency of 2014 and calling 1.25 ... of course these are after the fact knowledge !

Because in a price behavior , you need first price to behave then plot a chain of events or possible outcomes - but rarely price stay at a top for time to print and allow for participants to study ?

*I'm not telling you of course how to trade, just was interest to see how you see a bottom or a top.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,810
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:19pm Jan 3, 2014 2:19pm
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  • #867,811
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:22pm Jan 3, 2014 2:22pm
UJ just had some Viagra.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,812
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:25pm Jan 3, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} just was interest to see how you see a bottom or a top.
they are different, and I said this a number of times.. tops are more violet, but it gives you more fakes (hence a lot lose money trying to catch the tops) bottoms are more elaborate and they develop slower..

I understand what your are saying about them selling up there.. but how do we know they're not already out? These sells happened in very low liquidity, I could see it on the tick chart many broken and erratic moves..

back to your question, once they get started bears hit it hard (kind of what they did here, but keep in mind all they did is move it from outside of the range to the other side... Is this a b/o? It could be, I'm not saying... As a matter of fact the trend change levels for me was at 3650.. problem is it has to stay below, any strong move back above it and bears will be wiped, at least up to 3900 again... look at how bulls turned it from 3300 and up.. they dig in.. I like to look at each move as the set up for the next one and what I see is this... IF it turns here (there's no sign yet, that's what I'm watching), then I'll load it like a mofu.. otherwise I'll just wait for the new trend to be confirmed (it is not at this point, neither way)...
  • #867,813
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:29pm Jan 3, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting ffleo
UJ just had some Viagra.
Yeah, my account start to feel it. But I take it easy. The bitch I tried to long it all the day. That was garbage in, garbage out. And of course,now it goes straight.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #867,814
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm
Attila can you illustrate with a chart what you call the" price is stretched" ? If you have time.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #867,815
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm Jan 3, 2014 2:30pm
just a note, I don't remember who said this... "A trend will surpass anybody's expectation"..
  • #867,816
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:42pm Jan 3, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting maximinus
Attila can you illustrate with a chart what you call the" price is stretched" ? If you have time.
look at what happened 9 out of 10 times with the price after these moves.. take 3 consecutive bars with the long one in between.. bar 1 and 3 don't overlap.. unhealthy.... it eventually came back to those levels and not after long in the grand scheme of things... if nothing else, be weary of fast moves...

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  • #867,817
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:44pm Jan 3, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting attila
(it is not at this point, neither way)...
Next week is practically the first weeks of trading volume coming online plus some events .. so, it will be interesting to see what develops! In any case, have a good weekend.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,818
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:48pm Jan 3, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Next week is practically the first weeks of trading volume coming online plus some events .. so, it will be interesting to see what develops! In any case, have a good weekend.
I agree.. next week will tell a story..
  • #867,819
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:49pm Jan 3, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Hey relax don't worry I am not trying to steal the spotlight away from you and I don't need attention from internet. You are the only real pro trader for 9 years here and a lot of people give a hoot about that
I know ken. I make sure it doesn't go to my head either. Try to keep my feet firmly on the ground and all the troops on this thread down the right path
I realise you would never try to steal my thunder.
rat
  • #867,820
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:54pm Jan 3, 2014 2:54pm
Also Ken after a lot of twoing and throwing I decided to get short that EURUSD
as you can see its worked out nicely for FXRAT 50 odd Pips and a little tiddler 16 so
far very nice

Not sure anyone trades the DOW here or S&P & DAX but its FREE MONEY ?
Lot easier than deciding what to do with EURUSD and currencies.
It only goes one direction in the long run and thats up basically so
all you have to do is wait for a
small pullback and get long...

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rat
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