{quote} I just couldn't bring myself to go long von the euroBuf I did manage to short the swissy with you PT. In at 9001. Thanks for the heads up.
E/U
G/U
U/CHF
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,781
- Jan 2, 2014 3:13pm Jan 2, 2014 3:13pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
E/U
G/U
U/CHF
- #71,784
- Jan 3, 2014 9:01am Jan 3, 2014 9:01am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Gold anyone | 6,524 Posts
eu view.....
-watching reaction on 1.355x area
posted last week
updated today
-watching reaction on 1.355x area
posted last week
updated today
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
- #71,786
- Jan 3, 2014 9:31am Jan 3, 2014 9:31am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
eu view..... -watching reaction on 1.355x area posted last week {image} updated today {image}
Hi G and PT,Back now. I have 1.35576 marked on my chart before Christmas.
Although I do not remember why.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #71,787
- Jan 3, 2014 9:33am Jan 3, 2014 9:33am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Gold anyone | 6,524 Posts
{quote}
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
- #71,789
- Jan 3, 2014 9:38am Jan 3, 2014 9:38am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote}
Perhaps time to load up on some extra strength Ginkgo Biloba
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,790
- Jan 3, 2014 4:41pm Jan 3, 2014 4:41pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
4H chart..
can not say I did not see HS possibility...
target 336x.. 
can not say I did not see HS possibility...
target 336x..
- #71,791
- Jan 3, 2014 4:49pm Jan 3, 2014 4:49pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,792
- Edited 5:22pm Jan 3, 2014 5:08pm | Edited 5:22pm
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
- #71,793
- Edited 3:57am Jan 4, 2014 3:33am | Edited 3:57am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} well the next week is full of important announcements... and may indicate the path of the pair ...( down or up)...for some period of time.. let's see. ..until the picture is more clear.. ..
E/U Monthly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,794
- Jan 4, 2014 5:02am Jan 4, 2014 5:02am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
- #71,795
- Jan 4, 2014 5:05am Jan 4, 2014 5:05am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} Master...I do not disagree with anything above written... had seen the possibility of the pair going at 1.4x last summer with you. in my books only invalidates 1.4x target...if 1.273x breakdown ..
{quote} We are definitely going to see 1.4x, but it will probably not happen before a dip lower.
My next key low to buy a dip is an oversold condition between 1.3685 and 1.3490 on the H4 charts
Price did not make it all the way up to almost 1.39 for nothing. The cycle will complete to flush out the crowds.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,796
- Jan 4, 2014 5:17am Jan 4, 2014 5:17am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: private | 2,606 Posts
just do it
- #71,797
- Jan 4, 2014 6:32am Jan 4, 2014 6:32am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
coincidence? comparing fractals, both fractals are oct-nov-dec {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,798
- Jan 4, 2014 6:38am Jan 4, 2014 6:38am
- | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: strezz | 1,239 Posts
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
- #71,799
- Jan 4, 2014 6:45am Jan 4, 2014 6:45am
- | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: strezz | 1,239 Posts
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
- #71,800
- Edited 7:46am Jan 4, 2014 7:34am | Edited 7:46am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Granted the underlying fundamental picture may change and cause a shift /distortion in the tech picture, but ever since we broke above 1.3620 on the weekly chart, it's been a confirmed "buy the dips" market to complete the monthly wave C. From a strictly technical perspective, a failure of wave C is not likely at all, so one way or another the chances are extremely high we will see 1.44/45 in early 2014. From there it will be all downhill to retest the lows. Anyway, that's what the picture looks like now. Many things can change that picture,...
Hi PT,
I would not take the 1.44 to 1.45 as a given, when it is under the assumption, that a triangle's E wave has to reach the line connecting wave A and C.
In EWP we can read on Page 49 that the wave E can undershoot as well as overshoot, and that this does happen more often than not.
Furthermore, Swannell in his work shows, that the relation of wave C and wave E of the contracting triangle is most of the time between 30% and around 66%. When we assume the top is in for wave E we have around 60%
On the other hand, the relationship of wave D to wave E is most of the time 72% to 88%, we are a bit short here with nearly exact 62% (which on the other side makes a nice fib)
Quiet another point I have with the whole triangle design is, that wave A of your green A and wave B of the triangle looks very impulsive. So let us assume, that we do not feel the need to count corrective, when most of the structures point to impulsive (also the right look), chances seem to be much higher to count the waves up to your wave yellow B of the triangle as simply a big ABC-zigzag
Take the yellow B of your triangle: we can hardly see a retracement. If that is a wave B zigzag, we shall most of the time see a 22% to 62% retracement. I can not even see a 10% retracement.
I know, I have labelled this triangle too, often enough, because it seems to be soooooooo obvious. But out of my experience I can say: when something is too obvious, it is most likely wrong.
So if I were to assign probabilities to the first major wave down from the very top, I would say, that it has a chance of 50-70% to be an impulse
The wave yellow B of your triangle for me has a chance of >80% to be an impulse (I will easily go with >90%).
So for me, conclusion is, after hours of thought about it, that the following two counts are the most likely I can come up with:
A) start of big wave C down of an ABC-flat; wave C should be violently impulsive and target between A=C = 0,971 or C = 1,618 A = 0,714
B) same start as in variant A; but now we are in a barrier triangle, where we have seen end of wave C. The barrier will be build in the 21x handle. Wave E of triangle then will terminate near 300-330, which is volume wise the centre of all of this movements. Yellow wave C target would then be around 0,92 at least
When I assign probabilities to this scenarios, I would tend to say, that A) is much more likely than variant B)
Why?
Because of form of the triangle in variant B)
The triangle in variant B) (as well as the triangle PT has shown) shows a lot of waves in the form of double threes or triple threes. But D3 and T3 are rare in triangles , as Swannell work has shown. When, at all, he only found them in wave C and D position.
The most common pattern for the waves in triangles is the Zigzag, double zigzag and triple zigzag. Even flats are more kind of rare. Swannell never found a flat in wave B and E position.
So from now on I go with shown variant A) as my new main count
EW is not about right or wrong, it is all about probabilities. So why going with a low probability count unless the higher probability count is invalidated?