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EURUSD

  • #867,361
  • Jan 2, 2014 8:57am Jan 2, 2014 8:57am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I will wait for ISM to get clear.

TOTALLY a PRO TRADER mentality.
  • #867,362
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:01am Jan 2, 2014 9:01am
Merry New Year Junkies!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #867,363
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:01am Jan 2, 2014 9:01am
what now? nothing but good news for USD?


1.35?
1.34?
  • #867,364
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:02am Jan 2, 2014 9:02am
Pretty much what I was expecting a week ago or so, EUR/GBP/CHF to weaken while AUD gets the bid.
  • #867,365
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:05am Jan 2, 2014 9:05am
After so many good news for USD i would expect EUR to go north.Nothing is logical with that currency pair.
  • #867,366
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:08am Jan 2, 2014 9:08am
3705 must be resistance to keep bear alive.
Bull still defending strong even lost TL. It's weird
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #867,367
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:09am Jan 2, 2014 9:09am
Quoting 4xmaker
{quote} TOTALLY a PRO TRADER mentality.
thank you
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #867,368
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:09am Jan 2, 2014 9:09am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} this fall is nothing. expect more to come. i dont care if it reboubds to 3750 trend is down now
You, leo & some of our friends are getting too excited with this illiquid corrective drop..
the odds are still tilted for more EUR GBP bull$$$t before M/T bear$$$t..

cdndollar| Dec 16, 2013

http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ar294966_2.gif
{quote} Thanks.. I call it bull$$$t because EUR & GBP are M/T bulls.. I will share my bear$$$t with our friends here if & when their bias changes..
  • #867,369
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:12am Jan 2, 2014 9:12am
Quoting 4xmaker
{quote} I see risk off/on, as USD and JPY moving in tandem. CHF used to be the group as well until the EUR peg. Is that correct?
Thank you for your question. A brief explanation of what usually happens with Risk On or Risk Off. Any follow up questions will be appreciated.

At the moment the Dow is down as we all can see and Gold is up over $20.00 US.

Let us look at the US Bond Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. I get my information live by watching CNBC.

The Yield on the 10 Year Us Bonds is just a touch over 3.00 at the moment. That IS down from earlier this morning. Why ?

As traders sold off the Dow and by traders I mean those with larger amounts of money which I would start as say $100,000 US.

They sell the Dow and get CASH then they need to put their money somewhere so they buy in this example $100,000 US Bonds of the 2 Year duration and they then get a Yield of 3.00 % as long as they PARK it there.

So to understand you start at the beginning of the Cycle. When we have Risk On then the US Bonds usually sell off and money goes to more risky assets and currencies.

Gold is a Wild Card and a subject onto its own. Usually when the US Dollar Index is UP Gold goes down however that is a myth since Gold is not at the moment a free trading asset because of the shorting of the Comex (Paper Market) by the Powers that be. Gold is the Enemy of the Fiat System.

That will end during 2014 because of the New Gold exchange in Singapore.

Thanks for your question and feel free to ask for any other information you may need and of course we have others that post here that can also answer your questions.
  • #867,370
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:17am Jan 2, 2014 9:17am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} You, leo & some of our friends are getting too excited with this illiquid corrective drop.. the odds are still tilted for more EUR GBP bull$$$t before M/T bear$$$t.. cdndollar| Dec 16, 2013 {image} {quote} Thanks.. I call it bull$$$t because EUR & GBP are M/T bulls.. I will share my bear$$$t with our friends here if & when their bias changes..
agreed my friend that I got excited and the fall is not that big for today but I think this fall can extend in days to come. GBP's move has puzzled me for sure. 1.66 to 1.6407
  • #867,371
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:18am Jan 2, 2014 9:18am
Quoting BenjaminMan
{quote} They sell the Dow and get CASH then they need to put their money somewhere so they buy in this example $100,000 US Bonds of the 2 Year duration and they then get a Yield of 3.00 % as long as they PARK it there. S
But doesn't it put the bond buyer at risk of losing money on the face value of the bond if the yield spikes up? I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how the risk on/off is directly related to the yields than to the currency and the loop back to affecting the RISK off/on mentality.

Thanks for the detail post though.
  • #867,372
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:26am Jan 2, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Fx-gtg
Happy new year to all traders. Going to leave a long swissy .8837 open til next year and short g/j from current level 174.36
+200 pips g/j
+200 pips e/j
eur/jpy thread
Quoting Fx-gtg
sell sell on new monthly open. 123
Quoting Fx-gtg
great buy right now is usd/chf long term .8837. then look to sell chf/jpy atm 118.60
+220 pips chf/jpy
+173 pips swissy
  • #867,373
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:26am Jan 2, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You have serious issues man.
true.
  • #867,374
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:26am Jan 2, 2014 9:26am
EURUSD option trades > $140,000,000 from today.

ALL are bearish trades either selling calls or buying puts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #867,375
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:33am Jan 2, 2014 9:33am
I posted this chart this weekend

Just always ask yourself "where are we in relation to value"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post7182564
so where are we????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #867,376
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:35am Jan 2, 2014 9:35am
Is NY happy with its LL now ? Let's see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #867,377
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:36am Jan 2, 2014 9:36am
Quoting kuroro001
Is NY happy with its LL now ? Let's see
rat
  • #867,378
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:38am Jan 2, 2014 9:38am
Quoting BenjaminMan
{quote} Good Morning The correlation holds most of the time and here is why. When there is Risk Off as we have at the moment with the Dow down over 75 at the moment USD/JPY is still considered a safe place to keep money so as it is purchased then USD/JPY goes down towards 100.00 and usually this weakens EUR/JPY and that in turn weakens in most cases EUR/USD.
So when a pair is purchased its value decreases? Very interesting, that!!
  • #867,379
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:39am Jan 2, 2014 9:39am
Quoting 4xmaker
{quote} But doesn't it put the bond buyer at risk of losing money on the face value of the bond if the yield spikes up? I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how the risk on/off is directly related to the yields than to the currency and the loop back to affecting the RISK off/on mentality. Thanks for the detail post though.
I apologize to you for not being more clear. We start with the Dow going down as it is now and probably will continue to do as now it is down 98.30

Whomever is a big player, investor, speculator or gambler just sells. Then the question for them where do I leave my money in the meantime where there is NO CHANCE of LOSS ? When they buy $100,000 US of the 10 Year US Bonds they cannot or should not LOSE their capital and they then earn at the moment 3% if they hold the US Bonds for as long as they hold it. hey could PARK it into the 30 Year US Bonds or even the 2 Year US Bonds however their Capital is SAFE.

As the money or CASH flows around it affects ALL the Asset Classes which include Gold, All Currencies, All Commodities and All Equity Markets.
  • #867,380
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:45am Jan 2, 2014 9:45am
Think this will go down and break through the 1.36200 barrier? Seems to be struggling there today.
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