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  • #867,081
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:01pm Jan 1, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} What are you talking about? Dumb money takes the price to a certain level because they can when the participation is low. When the smart money starts piling in, the dumb volume pales in comparison. So how can they take the price in the original direction? That is also the reason why you would see price often wandering slowly into a level and then violently reacting at that level (because of increased participation from the smart money).
So, for the sake of argument : Assume what is called Dumb money is the one having the highest volume in comparison to smart money ? ... Where price will go ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,082
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:02pm Jan 1, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} So, for the sake of argument : Assume what is called Dumb money is the one having the highest volume in comparison to smart money ? ... Where price will go ?
That is like asking 'what would happen if the sun were to appear at night?'. Sorry, I have no reply to that.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #867,083
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:04pm Jan 1, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} That is like asking 'what would happen if the sun were to appear at night?'. Sorry, I have no reply to that.
sun appears at night. you are fast to come up with that. smart boy
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,084
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:05pm Jan 1, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes, please send me a pm at : [email]Iconstantlytryingtoshortthisthing@andIamlosingnotonlymypantsbutalsomymind.com.bias



Out of my sight Sam in his video is right by demanding to buy low and sell high and to not necessarily wait for some things to happen beforehand (be cause that would lead to a suboptimal entry price)

His method should work quite good on small TF. When I remember right, you made a statement a few days ago to the tune, that lower TF's are better predictable (for a short duration) than larger TF's with all their "black swan events" (so to say) which can develop over time. I completely agree.

Only have to look at my own account with the struggle I have with some positions which were thought to be long time, and the easiness I am able to scalp on lower TF.


It all depends on trading style and MM, right?

Since you email address ended with "bias": yes, bias is our biggest enemy, and hard to fight, especially when someone is stubborn
  • #867,085
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:07pm Jan 1, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting milam
{quote} good post, a good example that good traders do not trade the market but the people in it…it is all about the tug of war between the parts..
What is your assessment of this "tug of war"?

What are you looking at?
  • #867,086
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:07pm Jan 1, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} sun appears at night. you are fast to come up with that. smart boy
Precisely! When it does it is not night anymore. When dumb volume overtakes smart volume it is not dumb by definition so the premise changes. Not too fast, I think
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #867,087
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:09pm Jan 1, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Out of my sight Sam in his video is right by demanding to buy low and sell high and to not necessarily wait for some things to happen beforehand (be cause that would lead to a suboptimal entry price) His method should work quite good on small TF. When I remember right, you made a statement a few days ago to the tune, that lower TF's are better predictable (for a short duration) than larger TF's with all their "black swan events" (so to say) which can develop over time. I completely agree. Only have to look at my own account with...
every trade has a bias before entering the trade. A bet is based on bias.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,088
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:11pm Jan 1, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's debatable if you have a higher probability.It depends where you buy or sell.I do believe in exhaustion points.Buying Euro now is not high probability trade. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChQ0SUiPExI worth watching. I like Sam Seidon

It's all debatable. Otherwise we wouldn't be debating it right now.

And who doesn't believe in "exhaustion points"? Which is just a fancy way of saying that eventually, all trends come to an end. But why trade against the trend? I mean, are you 500 pips in the hole right now in GBP/USD because you've been trading with the trend or against the trend? The trend in GBP/USD has been clear for at least that long. Did you think 1.60 was an "exhaustion point"? 1.61? 1.62? 1.63? 1.64? 1.65?

Where is this point at in GBP/USD? If you know where this point is, then why the heck did you get in so far before this point? If you don't know where this point is, then why not trade the trend like the rest of us?
  • #867,089
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:11pm Jan 1, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} That is like asking 'what would happen if the sun were to appear at night?'. Sorry, I have no reply to that.
That's why it is hard my friend, to suck out all the bullshit all market participants are feeding ...

* You are assuming there is money knows where price should go ?
* Then, assumed price can actually go to the wrong places , only to fill someone's orders ,
* Then , assumed that volume has colors " Dumb, smart " while volume has only one thing : Big & small.
To conclude: Dumb money are the ones can't move prices but in thin session or environment , they can. While Smart money can and maintain moving prices in away dumb money can't !!!

Okay, lets say i will bite:

After Smart money is taking the price where it looks like its going ? what does dumb money do ?
If the answer is , they follow them ... then they are not that dumb after all!
But, if its a now ... then how can dumb money don't get a margin call or heavy- being in the wrong trades ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,090
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:18pm Jan 1, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Vachus
the magic line, candle formations or chart formations or trend lines - doesn't not work. Here is more interesting questions , you might try to answer it : The conventional wisdom is , buy or sell with a confirmation ... if all market...
  • #867,091
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:19pm Jan 1, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} That's why it is hard my friend, to suck out all the bullshit all market participants are feeding ... * You are assuming there is money knows where price should go ? * Then, assumed price can actually go to the wrong places , only to fill someone's orders , * Then , assumed that volume has colors " Dumb, smart " while volume has only one thing : Big & small. To conclude: Dumb money are the ones can't move prices but in thin session or environment , they can. While Smart money can and maintain moving prices in away dumb money can't !!! Okay,...
is it not like that all smart money act in synch. some push it up and some push it down. There is also fight among smart money too. It is also time dependent. Some smart money may run out of money at the moment, but will have large free money later on.
The same among dumb money.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,092
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:19pm Jan 1, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote}then how can dumb money don't get a margin call or heavy- being in the wrong trades ?
What do you mean? 90% of retail traders lose money. The figure is not accurate but it is widely acknowledged. Also, dumb and smart refers equally to the IQ and wallet in this case. So dumb volume can never exceed smart volume. If it did it would have been smart. If the sun were to appear at night it wouldn't be night after all.

EA: and what ffleo says above
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #867,093
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:21pm Jan 1, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} So, for the sake of argument : Assume what is called Dumb money is the one having the highest volume in comparison to smart money ? ... Where price will go ?

LOL

if the peasons managed to have more money than the big boys, I would say: PARTY and so the money goes to the bar
  • #867,094
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:23pm Jan 1, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} every trade has a bias before entering the trade. A bet is based on bias.

that is right

should have made distinction between short term bias and long term bias

long term bias is the problem
  • #867,095
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:25pm Jan 1, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote}
The question is , what is a confirmation ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #867,096
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:26pm Jan 1, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting mitrapips
{quote} What do you mean? 90% of retail traders lose money. The figure is not accurate but it is widely acknowledged. Also, dumb and smart refers equally to the IQ and wallet in this case. So dumb volume can never exceed smart volume. If it did it would have been smart. If the sun were to appear at night it wouldn't be night after all. EA: and what ffleo says above
95% retail lose. This is not because retail bet it wrong most of the time. it is because retails have shallow pocket but bet large, and get margin calls. retail have to take a loss at margins calls, and later on watch the market goes their way in regret.

So if you want retail not to lose, bet small, have enough margin to sustain some market movement going againt you.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #867,097
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:26pm Jan 1, 2014 2:26pm
Can someone tell me, how many hours before EURUSD starts trading again?
  • #867,098
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:27pm Jan 1, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Baggi
Can someone tell me, how many hours before EURUSD starts trading again?
when did it stop??? (hint : it didn't)
  • #867,099
  • Edited 2:38pm Jan 1, 2014 2:28pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Out of my sight Sam in his video is right by demanding to buy low and sell high and to not necessarily wait for some things to happen beforehand (be cause that would lead to a suboptimal entry price) His method should work quite good on small TF. When I remember right, you made a statement a few days ago to the tune, that lower TF's are better predictable (for a short duration) than larger TF's with all their "black swan events" (so to say) which can develop over time. I completely agree. Only have to look at my own account with...
Yes all depend on you own style and MM...

Yes, you are very stubborn…….(at obsessive compolsive levels ) and very tenacious, they could be very good attribute in life and especially in your particular hobby, but I doubt that they are very good at trading, (well tenacity is good when you are fighting to remaining in the arena), in trading I think you have to be able to change your mind quickly when nessessary , actually I thing to have not mind at all will be the ultimate goal and not only in trading…….. (I know this may sound not such a good idea for you, maybe you need to reread Siddhartha by your compatriot Herman Hess)

The need to be right >stubborn>bias>concept>limitation of view, all those tend not to place ourself in the position of perceiving the flow, which I think if the most important thing in trading…….Imagine how much more brighter your account would look if instead of shorting, you where focusing on longs…that is where the money went and the ability lay on the fact to be able to jump on it and get some money out….

Who cares being right, lets make money…..if you do not need it….lets give it to who needs it….

Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #867,100
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:29pm Jan 1, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} The question is , what is a confirmation ?



exactly

to trade a confirmation on one TF, is trading counterdtrend on a lower TF, isn't it?
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