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Promised EA system

  • #701
  • Dec 28, 2013 10:19am Dec 28, 2013 10:19am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} UPDATE ============== For those of us having tiny account balances, I would suggest that we keep our starting lot sizes at 0.01 PER $1000. That is to say: $250 - $1,000 = 0.01 $1000 - $2000 = 0.02 ad infinitum... IMHO this will FURTHER ensure we remain one step ahead of the market (if that is even at all possible). Regards, Ty
That is well said. We should trade for steadfast consistent return, not to seek overnight become rich. Overnight rich can be overnight broke as well. Also EU, GU, AU, UJ and NU should be our core pairs.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #702
  • Dec 28, 2013 10:23am Dec 28, 2013 10:23am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} A stoploss kinda beats the whole aim of martingaling and grid/hedge trading doesn't it?
My answer was more in general ... and about Anpar's DD general input.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #703
  • Dec 28, 2013 10:30am Dec 28, 2013 10:30am
Finally, and then I think I'd stop for a while and allow OTHERS bare their minds too...I feel that we should develop a culture here where we would ANALYZE the coming week's news events so as to decide our game plan - i.e. the news items to avoid or the times to pause the EAs etc...

For example:

Below is Monday's news calendar and I can clearly see a USD news item (Pending Homes Sales...)

Now those of you here with so much experience like xlitang, Anpar, FerruFx, etc...can say what your recommendations would be if trading live (to pause or not to pause and so on).

For example, IF we already had this culture going on, we would have known from Anpar NOT to trade on the last friday of the year!

IMHO this practice would not ONLY help us stay waaay ahead the market and help us navigate this wild jungle called forex, but will ALSO ensure that we have a more rich & robust thread.

Anyways, I'd like your input on that.

Regards,

Ty
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My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #704
  • Dec 28, 2013 10:33am Dec 28, 2013 10:33am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} My answer was more in general ... and about Anpar's DD general input.
Ok then - I stand corrected. Didn't connect that.

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #705
  • Dec 28, 2013 11:21am Dec 28, 2013 11:21am
Quoting xlitang
{quote} I applause for your brave. However if you need to constantly to bay-sit your EA it defeats the purpose of using EA and live with constantly with fear.
To be honest, I'm not sure what you mean by constantly babysitting? How is this different than "turning off / suspending" the EA before NFP or other major news event. Wouldn't you want to limit your risk based on past experience? EA's that do not employ hard stops or employ martingale/hedge functions need to be watched constantly, that's just basic Risk Management IMHO.

Anpar
  • #706
  • Dec 28, 2013 5:23pm Dec 28, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} DD is the choice of the trader. Use a SL in your trading and you won't have DD except the risk your trade is set for.
That is exactly right.

Quoting TyLamai
{quote} A stoploss kinda beats the whole aim of martingaling and grid/hedge trading doesn't it? IMHO it probably won't fit into the concept of this kind of trading system. This system is really for those who have the LIVER to risk their funds by trading without SLs & who have the discipline to trade by the rules. Using SLs is the IDEAL way to trade...but if that worked all the time, then we wouldn't all be here would we? We are seeking an "edge" against the "house" (i.e. the forex market) and to get this edge, we SHOULD be willing to risk those...
It can be proved statistically that using SL at a certain level not just takes a huge pressure off your shoulders but can be profitable as well: whilst the other accounts sit in massive drawdown passively and wait for reversal (which may or may not come), it -after a SL- starts to trade actively and generates profit up and down again.
That is my experience.
Another factor is that I work with decent size account (>$50k) I cannot afford an open trading system with unlimited risk. I understand that it is very unlikely but still unlimited.
Yes, I could work with $1000 account but the return on that would be much less than on the big account - even with using SL.

It's not an argument, it is an opinion. Every trader has to choose his/her risk tolerance and trade accordingly. Any drawdown, loss, or profit is his/her responsibility after all - not the EA's.
Peace.
Lead me, follow me or get out of my way!
  • #707
  • Dec 28, 2013 5:38pm Dec 28, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting TyLamai
I feel that we should develop a culture here where we would ANALYZE the coming week's news events so as to decide our game plan - i.e. the news items to avoid or the times to pause the EAs etc... For example: Below is Monday's news calendar and I can clearly see a USD news item (Pending Homes Sales...) Now those of you here with so much experience like xlitang, Anpar, FerruFx, etc...can say what your recommendations would be if trading live (to pause or not to pause and so on).
If you stop trading at - certain - news times, you should also avoid trading at the unexpected sudden moves. The problem is that you don't know when the "unexpected" will happen ... We see these more and more for apparently no reason.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #708
  • Dec 28, 2013 5:39pm Dec 28, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting Evil Jerrad
Every trader has to choose his/her risk tolerance and trade accordingly. Any drawdown, loss, or profit is his/her responsibility after all - not the EA's.
Can't agree more.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #709
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:10am Dec 29, 2013 3:10am
Evil Jerrad & FerruFx I hear y'all and I agree but we are still focused on the PROBLEMS which we all know about. Am really interested in the solutions...solutions...solutions.

Quote
The problem is that you don't know when the "unexpected" will happen ...

Yes, but this shouldn't stop us from doing that which we can to tip the scale MORE towards our side - do you get?

Quote
es, I could work with $1000 account but the return on that would be much less than on the big account - even with using SL

I agree but instead of focusing on that how about we run our fx accounts like a stock account where we focus more on increasing the portfolio size over time as against immediately reaping profits on a monthly basis?

For instance, a bank might offer you a savings interest rate of 6%-10% a year (example)...but IF you trade safely using this system, you might make that in a month. Done consistently you would gain MUCH MORE than the bank-offered 6%-10%.

What this entails is that you would need to NOT depend on the fx market for a livelihood but see it as a long term investment opportunity or something like that.

So anyways, solutions guys - not focusing on already known issues.

Just my 2 cents though!

Regards,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #710
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:19am Dec 29, 2013 3:19am
Quoting TyLamai
Evil Jerrad & FerruFx I hear y'all and I agree but we are still focused on the PROBLEMS which we all know about. Am really interested in the solutions...solutions...solutions. {quote} Yes, but this shouldn't stop us from doing that which we can to tip the scale MORE towards our side - do you get? {quote} I agree but instead of focusing on that how about we run our fx accounts like a stock account where we focus more on increasing the portfolio size over time as against immediately reaping profits on a monthly basis? For instance, a bank might offer...
NEVER consider your trading account like a bank saving account. Remember that your saving account is "safe" while you might lose your trading account tomorrow ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #711
  • Edited 6:13am Dec 29, 2013 4:17am | Edited 6:13am
I wrote my solutions to unexpected news triggered movements (please refer to post #683) : I have built in:

-spike protection
-high volatility protection
-increased spread protection

Those methods pretty much filter out unexpected rallies and stop the EA to place new trades (only on the currency pair/window it happened).

In the unfortunate case that unexpected volatility happens with 8 or 9 levels already loaded it would be too late: then comes the final protection: Stop Loss level set in dollar value that cuts the loss at a pre-determined level.
All of these protections work on each pair and on each window individually and separately.

I am not saying that it is THE SOLUTION. All I am saying is that it is my solution.
Lead me, follow me or get out of my way!
  • #712
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:23am Dec 29, 2013 8:23am
EA does have increased spread protection. How do you define increased spike ? Within one minute move 20 pips 30 pips or 40 pips? We can implement this feature and suspend EA for two hours. Also i will write a separate EA to close all trades if DD greater than x% of balance of your choice.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #713
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:04am Dec 29, 2013 9:04am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} NEVER consider your trading account like a bank saving account. Remember that your saving account is "safe" while you might lose your trading account tomorrow ...
Again problems are easy to spot.

Am happy you placed the "safe" in quotes bcos as you well know nothing is safe.

Now...what is your solution?

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #714
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:11am Dec 29, 2013 9:11am
Quoting Evil Jerrad
I wrote my solutions to unexpected news triggered movements (please refer to post #683) : I have built in: -spike protection -high volatility protection -increased spread protection Those methods pretty much filter out unexpected rallies and stop the EA to place new trades (only on the currency pair/window it happened). In the unfortunate case that unexpected volatility happens with 8 or 9 levels already loaded it would be too late: then comes the final protection: Stop Loss level set in dollar value that cuts the loss at a pre-determined level....
Great, but these solutions are incorporated into your own personal EA...which makes it restrictive except if you are willing to share like xlitang...?
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #715
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:07pm Dec 29, 2013 3:07pm
The markets open in approximately 54mins...

Gentlemen are we ready?

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #716
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:51pm Dec 29, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting Evil Jerrad
I wrote my solutions to unexpected news triggered movements (please refer to post #683) : I have built in: -spike protection -high volatility protection -increased spread protection Those methods pretty much filter out unexpected rallies and stop the EA to place new trades (only on the currency pair/window it happened). In the unfortunate case that unexpected volatility happens with 8 or 9 levels already loaded it would be too late: then comes the final protection: Stop Loss level set in dollar value that cuts the loss at a pre-determined level....
Next version of the EA will have built in :

-spike protection
-high volatility protection
-increased spread protection

In short if above three condition exist, EA will will shutdown and no more trade will be taken. It will prevent huge loss like last Friday.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #717
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:56pm Dec 29, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting xlitang
{quote} Next version of the EA will have built in : -spike protection -high volatility protection -increased spread protection In short if above three condition exist, EA will will shutdown and no more trade will be taken. It will prevent huge loss like last Friday.
That RIGHT THERE is what I mean by a SOLUTION!

Thank you xlitang as usual. Keep up the great work.

Regards,

Ty

NB: Please check your mail?
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #718
  • Dec 29, 2013 5:23pm Dec 29, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} That RIGHT THERE is what I mean by a SOLUTION! Thank you xlitang as usual. Keep up the great work. Regards, Ty NB: Please check your mail?
It looks like TyLamai cannot see what I am writing; more than likely I use invisible ink.
Lead me, follow me or get out of my way!
  • #719
  • Dec 29, 2013 5:36pm Dec 29, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting Evil Jerrad
{quote} It looks like TyLamai cannot see what I am writing; more than likely I use invisible ink.
Oh well, anyways it doesn't matter any longer I guess. We have a potential solution. No stress.

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #720
  • Edited 5:54pm Dec 29, 2013 5:40pm | Edited 5:54pm
Gentlemen, as my final words, let me share some facts with you:

If you are trading with open martingale system of any kind, in the unfortunate case when the unexpected surge comes with 8 or 9 levels already loaded you expose your whole account to unlimited risk.

After the 14th level you have a minimum 7.79 Lot going against you. It means you feed ~$780 negative gain at every 10 pips. In case of 150 pips rally from there you are sitting in around $13,300 loss, say half of your account. In case it happens on multiple pairs due to strong correlation MARGIN CALL IS GUARANTEED within 120 pips. (3 pairs ~ 80 pips). Its not an assumption, IT IS A MATHEMATICAL FACT.

Could it happen? If you have a look at the daily charts you will certainly see that every year you can find 2 or 3 times 400+ pips daily candles with no announced news on that particular day. That means margin call. It is not an assumption, IT IS A STATISTICAL FACT.

ALL open martingale systems lose the whole account twice a year, statistically. In practice -due to multiple pairs- more frequently. All open martingale systems work like a time bomb. Fact.

Google the results of similar systems, even from xlitang, his earlier systems; none of them survived a year. There is a reason, don't be blind to ignore the facts.
We already saw a $75k live account blown; I am curious how many more we need to see before you get the point. Some people just cannot learn from others' mistakes they need to hurt themselves first.

Anyway, just my 2 cents, have fun guys, and happy new year to all.
Lead me, follow me or get out of my way!
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