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  • #866,321
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:12pm Dec 27, 2013 1:12pm
That is a huge pin bar. Massive sell off from the highs.. makes it seem like the MM's are trying to stop out all the shorts.
  • #866,322
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:14pm Dec 27, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} A case could be made for a Cable above 1.75 ... so, if someone will be buying targeting these levels in the next 6 months or so , i wouldn't call him a total manic! Its one of these moments when you really wonder " can it happen? " But not the EURUSD - its practically range bounded .

I am just thinking in terms of probabilities. 175 or 1.60 ? I'll take 1.60 based on fundamentals and also fact BOE already concern about high Sterling.They want it lower to be competitive same for Euro.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #866,323
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting ffleo
anyone want to long euro now? it just got below 3760, and will hit 3750 soon
so far this year 40% acc up for going against the euro,
if i had been an euro bull i think id would be like 400% up like some of you hahah

can i be an euro bull too?
  • #866,324
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} A case could be made for a Cable above 1.75 ... so, if someone will be buying targeting these levels in the next 6 months or so , i wouldn't call him a total manic! Its one of these moments when you really wonder " can it happen? " But not the EURUSD - its practically range bounded .
Too early to say for sure, but I can't help but wonder if we're going to be ranging between the high and 1.31778 for a good portion of the year.. possible triangle forming. We'll see.

edit: changed 1.33 to 1.31778
  • #866,325
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm Dec 27, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} A case could be made for a Cable above 1.75 ... so, if someone will be buying targeting these levels in the next 6 months or so , i wouldn't call him a total manic! Its one of these moments when you really wonder " can it happen? " But not the EURUSD - its practically range bounded .
1.75? not likely in many years. cable took the opportunity of the 2008 financial crisis to drop below 1.71. You think the BOE will allow it to go above 1.71 and looking at 2.0 above?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,326
  • Edited 1:36pm Dec 27, 2013 1:18pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} pls gimme a hint, cant stop trading counter trend, it has worked for me well but is very painful sometimes as sl get hit often, i think is more profitable to follow trend than counter act in overbought, oversold zones. really have to work in this, will have to start thinking there is not high or very low price.
does not matter how many times you get stopped out, at the end of a period it is important that you make money, a good counter trader has be quick with is feet….his risk are tiny, when he gets it right, his RR are huge, many time the will be stooped out with losses or BE…..it is all part of the business
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #866,327
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:18pm Dec 27, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I am just thinking in terms of probabilities. 175 or 1.60 ? I'll take 1.60 based on fundamentals and also fact BOE already concern about high Sterling.They want it lower to be competitive same for Euro. Regards
I really don't trade this pair, but 1.60 seems doable .. the monthly looks like ranging for the last 4 years !

Quoting DasPips
{quote} Too early to say for sure, but I can't help but wonder if we're going to be ranging between the high and 1.33 for a good portion of the year.. possible triangle forming. We'll see.
I'm netural on the pair, i'm not trading it at all ... just something i have noticed!

Quoting ffleo
{quote} 1.75? not likely in many years. cable took the opportunity of the 2008 financial crisis to drop below 1.71. You think the BOE will allow it to go above 1.71 and looking at 2.0 above?
Well, there is these little things about the need for a Safe heaven asset class, a currency with low inflation and less violate exchange rate, an improving economy ... these little things could form a sentiment and get activated by a momentum and Boom a speculation Fever! I'm not buying, won't recommend buying and totally netural on the pair! But, i won't take Carney's word on this one.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #866,328
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:20pm Dec 27, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting attila
I posted a link earlier to reuters talking abut this being an ecb move...
I highly doubt it was an ECB move - much of the commentary articles are gossip on reuters. If it was really about shoring up the euros in the bank, I am sure that EURUSD wouldn't have retraced so quickly. I'm inclined to think that a group of dealers got together and jobbed the market on a low liquidity day with a co-ordinated move.
  • #866,329
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:20pm Dec 27, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting Ck87
That is a huge pin bar. Massive sell off from the highs.. makes it seem like the MM's are trying to stop out all the shorts.
they have got you for sure LOL
rat
  • #866,330
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:22pm Dec 27, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} this is cheap. You will look down here next year and think should have brought that. that dow wont take long to get to 18k at this rate.
you really think spx can cross the 2000 mark without a a decent correction?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,331
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:23pm Dec 27, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} they have got you for sure LOL
I wasn't short, looked like it was going higher to me. Should have went long but I'm a rat
  • #866,332
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:23pm Dec 27, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you really think spx can cross the 2000 mark without a a decent correction?

S&P is going way way higher. Even if a decent correction comes it's best to just wait for it and then buy. Trend is way too strong.

Can definitely go to 2000 without going back down to 1750
  • #866,333
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:25pm Dec 27, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} so far this year 40% acc up for going against the euro, if i had been an euro bull i think id would be like 400% up like some of you hahah can i be an euro bull too?
if you can survive counter-trend trading, what do you worry about any more?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,334
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:31pm Dec 27, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you really think spx can cross the 2000 mark without a a decent correction?
Well, lets rephrase the question: What happened the last time S&P broke a Virgin triple digit round number? ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #866,335
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} S&P is going way way higher. Even if a decent correction comes it's best to just wait for it and then buy. Trend is way too strong. Can definitely go to 2000 without going back down to 1750
it surely can hit 2000. but after that no correction?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #866,336
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote}will have to start thinking there is not high or very low price.
this is the first step.. when the price is moving, it's easy.. problem is when it gets into consolidations trying to figure out if it'll continue or go the other way.. at this point you need to pay attention to what the price does BEFORE the b/o.. does it consolidate again before the b/o (that's a sign for the sincere following b/o), does it come in with ta HL (for upwards b/o)? does it go fast into the level (this one will be rejected)? Then you have to figure out what it does after the b/o.. does it come back INTO consolidation? not good.. does it bounce off it's edge? good.. how's the volume.. low volume after the b/o is good, high volume at the b//o level is good, high volume after the b/o with the price not advancing and even going back into the consolidation? nicht gut... is the trend before the consolidation up? chances are the b/o will be up as well..
  • #866,337
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm Dec 27, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I wasn't short, looked like it was going higher to me. Should have went long but I'm a rat
yes, it is a pin bar, but not at the extreme, on daily and weekly still she made an HL and and HH, the monthly is stronger.

A reaction like that was expected, 3860 hit the top of the cup including the handle (a bull trend line on weekly), if she breaks that trend line and stay above for a bit, she can travel another 1000 pips.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #866,338
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:33pm Dec 27, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I wasn't short, looked like it was going higher to me. Should have went long but I'm a rat
Did you hold E/CAD short from 1.540?
  • #866,339
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:34pm Dec 27, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} it surely can hit 2000. but after that no correction?

Corrections have to come and will definitely come sooner or later. I'm sure some point in 2014 S&P will come down 10% or more from highs. But it will most likely be a great opportunity to buy.

The biggest mistake I've made as a trader and continue to make is going against the trend. It's pointless. If you do it you should take your profits quick and only be scalping, but even then it's usually not worth it with risk/reward.


It's really hard to lose money when you stick with the trend
  • #866,340
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:34pm Dec 27, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Well, lets rephrase the question: What happened the last time S&P broke a Virgin triple digit round number? ...
what happened when it first hit 1500? what happened second time it hit just a little over 1500?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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