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Sonic R. System

  • #63,561
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:17pm Dec 26, 2013 9:17pm
Abit late to long.. early to short??

Sonic
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  • #63,562
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:39pm Dec 26, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Abit late to long.. early to short?? Sonic {image}
Look at the JPN225 D1 and the GJ D1."NO BEARISH"
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  • #63,563
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:53pm Dec 26, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Abit late to long.. early to short?? Sonic {image}

If you don't mind me asking, may I know what is yr trade plan here, sonicdeejay? Would you be scouting in this situation? Or would you prefer to wait for the classic entry?

I would assume you will have a very small risk to scout, and when the classic entry present itself, u will put in yr normal lot
  • #63,564
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:53pm Dec 26, 2013 9:53pm
USD/CHF

The MMs do a pretty bad job hiding their motive
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #63,565
  • Dec 26, 2013 10:23pm Dec 26, 2013 10:23pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
USD/CHF The MMs do a pretty bad job hiding their motive {image}
May I know what is the MM motive here? Is MM taking profit, or building short position? Can figure this out, as the dip to the lowest price today, did not hit below any round/half/quarter number. And most of the recent high volume on M1 are lower low. Yet, I can't digest what this mean.

My 2 cents thought is that usd was weak, causing the same effect on most pairs that involve usd (look at eurusd, almost the same effect)
  • #63,566
  • Dec 26, 2013 10:25pm Dec 26, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Avenger999
{quote} May I know what is the MM motive here? Is MM taking profit, or building short position? Can figure this out, as the dip to the lowest price today, did not hit below any round/half/quarter number. And most of the recent high volume on M1 are lower low. Yet, I can't digest what this mean. My 2 cents thought is that usd was weak, causing the same effect on most pairs that involve usd (look at eurusd, almost the same effect)


Two things can be happening here.

1. MM's building longs.
2. MM's SL hunting and/or tricking investors to enter short.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #63,567
  • Edited 11:15pm Dec 26, 2013 10:40pm | Edited 11:15pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} Two things can be happening here. 1. MM's building longs. 2. MM's SL hunting and/or tricking investors to enter short.
Though I suspect your analysis is valid, how do we tell the difference between instances where MM's are building positions and where MM's are initiating their runs for profit? Because though it seems likely that when prices are being driven low with extreme volume this is simply a way for them to acquire longs at better prices thus making them bulls and vice versa, I still always find myself looking left of the charts trying to figure out if what I am seeing could be MM's taking profits from a previous phase or not.
Regards

Edit: It's because of this I see that instead of building longs, I see they have been building shorts:
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Your opinions on this?
  • #63,568
  • Edited 11:16pm Dec 26, 2013 10:55pm | Edited 11:16pm
As I see it
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Some confirmation or advice would be nice..
  • #63,569
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:43am Dec 27, 2013 12:43am
Quoting mukeshk
tah, After some unpleasant posts i can say i have hit on the right note and i am enjoying the reading. I will be awake most of the night today to read and reread the posts. Thanks a lot for your guidance. Regards, Mukesh.

Seasons greetings to everyone, my first post in the forum here.


I've been studying and applying the Sonic R system for 1 month now. From what I've gathered. The beauty of this system is its discretionary nature, not every Sonic R trader will be doing the same set of trades. Some trader seems to focus more on Scouts and some purely classic. The common timeframes seems to be M15 and H1, some uses larger TF to add context (like Sunbrella), and some scalps with M1 and M5 entries. I've seen success in diversifying my currency portfolio through trading on different timeframes (my ECN allows long/short orders on same currency pair) and acting accordingly.


I really would like to take this time to thank the traders now for posting live trades as they are a reference for me to look at my own charts and try to understand why the trade was taken (or not). Hopefully, in time, I will be more active in posting my own trades as well, and contributing back to the community.


To mukeshk,


The below post by Sunbrella was quite enlightening to me, after understanding PVSRA and its strengths, i believe its weaknesses should be known as well.


Happy Trading.

Quoting Sunbrella
{quote} SaiLyfee, though my post is a partial answer to your questions, still needs to be posted as a reply. Hopefully will help for newcomers. PVSRA weaknesses - Lack of context The way PVSRA used here for so called "position building" has serious weaknesses. The most important one is the lack of mastering the art of reading the market context first. And one shortcoming of this weakness is poor trade timing. Current PVSRA application examples seen here are like simply pulling the trigger and getting into the trade being blindfolded. Shooting just...
  • #63,570
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:25am Dec 27, 2013 2:25am
Quoting nephilus
{quote} Seasons greetings to everyone, my first post in the forum here. I've been studying and applying the Sonic R system for 1 month now. From what I've gathered. The beauty of this system is its discretionary nature, not every Sonic R trader will be doing the same set of trades. Some trader seems to focus more on Scouts and some purely classic. The common timeframes seems to be M15 and H1, some uses larger TF to add context (like Sunbrella), and some scalps with M1 and M5 entries. I've seen success in diversifying my currency portfolio through...
Seasons greetings! I have to agree with you its definitely interesting to see the variety of ways Sonic R is used, I myself am new to trading price action after going through that oh so pointless 'indicator phase'. I've been going over the strategy and applying it in demo's for a month now also I realise I still have so much to learn and am yet to have formulated a step by step process of identifying all of the trades I take that works for me but it is all a sure part of learning and earning. Nice to have you here buddy and look forward to seeing you here more often, happy trading
  • #63,571
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:01am Dec 27, 2013 3:01am
USD/CHF

This is what I see.

LL and LH formation ? We'll see soon.
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #63,572
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:15am Dec 27, 2013 3:15am
4 hrs later..
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote}It's because of this I see that instead of building longs, I see they have been building shorts
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Looks like this could still go further possibly as part of the pump & dump. Who knows for sure but time will tell I guess, for now I'm just watching on the sidelines of my demo account

Quoting SaiLyfee
As I see it {image} Some confirmation or advice would be nice..
Looks like time has been the confirmation here. MM's really going to work on collecting those profits it seems..pump & dump reaching its end..
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  • #63,573
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:29am Dec 27, 2013 3:29am
USDCHF: Too many interpretations of the same event
Newbie trader
  • #63,574
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:39am Dec 27, 2013 3:39am
Quoting fex
USDCHF: Too many interpretations of the same event
what do you mean? explain?
Take what the market gives you.
  • #63,575
  • Dec 27, 2013 7:56am Dec 27, 2013 7:56am
Quoting sonicdeejay
GBP/JPY Week 52 Analysis Weekly Candle : Bullish Engulfing Bias : Short (Mild) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7eVjWtjOQY Note: I explained why I am still Short (Mild) even though we had a Bullish weekly bar. We are also in holiday week.. So. pls take that into account... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUQsqBqxoR4 Happy Holiday... Sonic

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I am dead wrong.. this week..

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Sonic
  • #63,576
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:05am Dec 27, 2013 8:05am
My Gold..


Inserted Video


Sonic
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  • #63,577
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:07am Dec 27, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} what do you mean? explain?
I mean:

Or something is wrong or there is market for all . It isn't bear AND bull market at same time.
Newbie trader
  • #63,578
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:43am Dec 27, 2013 8:43am
EU Comment

My understanding (from some post by worldfreedom, I think) is that the market makers have full authority and discretion to move price up to 200 pips in a single day, for no reason whatsoever. The only reason they need is that they want to do it for their own profits. So......

Today looks like that is what the market makers did. They ran the price up on this Friday, with only a two piddling trading days left in the year, because they wanted to. Why would they want to? Simply because they are accumulating short orders for what is to come.

You can see how the volume, even at the highs, is not that great, indicating that the market makers, not the big players, were the predominate traders on this move. such highs that were attained might be re-attained in January, before the real pushes down begin. We cannot know that, but now that these highs are "on the books" you can bet some banks are going to place more sell orders up there. If they are tempting enough, then the market makers might do this again, to fill those orders,.....maybe not quite so high though, to leave room for more profit for the MMs.
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  • #63,579
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:51am Dec 27, 2013 8:51am
Market Comment

Typical Market Maker's strategy over year end holidays is to range price for days, sucking in whatever traders they can. At some point they put on a whip to stop out the right side traders and to trigger in remaining pending orders of wrong side traders, thus getting in a single climatic move the liquidity to accumulate more of whichever side orders is the right side for what is to come early the new year.

Today is such a day, and clearly demonstrates on some pairs how aggressive the climatic move to create liquidity by the MMs can be,.....all the more impressive since this is a Friday and the only two days left to trade this year (next Monday and Tuesday) are likely to be "non-events".
  • #63,580
  • Edited 9:31am Dec 27, 2013 9:07am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting fex
{quote} I mean: Or something is wrong or there is market for all . It isn't bear AND bull market at same time.
fex,

By "It isn't bear AND bull market at same time..." you refer to the fact that for every "buy" there must be a "sell", which is true. That does not mean the market is both bullish and bearish at the same time because when we speak of bulls or bears, we are referring to MMs that are and will be driving price. We are not referring to those uniformed and mistaken traders that are taking the wrong side of transactions.

Can we know which are the right and wrong side of transactions? Not nearly so well as the MMs can!

Take UChf for an example. Look at H4. The market makers have been ranging this below the 0.9000 level most of December, after the 250+ bear swing down to that level. Around the middle of December the MMs suddenly hiked the price to give this a bullish tone (which indeed it is) to convince folks that the subsequent ranging is their chance to enter long with good support for their long trades. Then what happens? Today the MMs wacked the price to stop out longs (and maybe also to trigger in wrong side shorts). All this being done for one purpose only,....so the market makers can accumulate more long orders.

You see, the market makers know how price is most likely to start moving next year, partly because they will be the ones to do the moving. But, for them to get long they need sellers to get short, .......or they need to get others to go long first and then stop them out!

Which is typical MM strategy for year end holiday trading.

However, the MMs can do this any trading day they wish to. Therefore, maybe a good question we, as traders, should ask ourselves when planning on entering into a trade is this. "If the MMs whisk the price 200 pips against me, will I still believe the trade is a good one?" It is a good question to answer before trading, because if the MMs do it, and for the reason discussed, it only proves the trade is a good one, but you will be in it longer, maybe a lot longer.
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