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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,781
  • Dec 26, 2013 5:05pm Dec 26, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting card
{quote} Ouch. Should have gotten out with the small profit I had. I don't like to hold positions at the end of the year. I hope I can get out before the 31st.
Out with a loss. I'm going to stay away from trading till the end of next week. See you all in 2014!
  • #40,782
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:22pm Dec 26, 2013 6:22pm
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  • #40,783
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:35pm Dec 26, 2013 6:35pm
gonnna look to enter more longs for quick pips at next hour
  • #40,784
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:47pm Dec 26, 2013 6:47pm
for the record, USDJPY traded at 105
Attached Image
  • #40,785
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:51pm Dec 26, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting JeremyWS
for the record, USDJPY traded at 105 {image}
well well well that's an information I was about to search for , the question is are we gonna break that barrier ..

edit : 150.50 is a nice level
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #40,786
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:53pm Dec 26, 2013 6:53pm
I wonder how high this pair will go in 2014
  • #40,787
  • Dec 26, 2013 7:00pm Dec 26, 2013 7:00pm
SL hunted at 105. :3 I will retrace later. :3
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  • #40,788
  • Dec 26, 2013 7:07pm Dec 26, 2013 7:07pm
The fact the Nikkei has been selling off since the opening, yet the Yen has been weakening to print 105 with an immediate back-off should be taken as a cautionary tale.

The FX futures actually didn’t hit the equivalent of 105 until about 20-30 minutes after ECN spot. Once it happened in the futures the market both (spot and futures) backed off quickly from anything > 105.

Some important “Abenomics” data coming up in less than 30 minutes – 10:30AM JST which may reinforce the move down (in both equity and FX) or help it make a clean break above.
  • #40,789
  • Dec 26, 2013 10:16pm Dec 26, 2013 10:16pm
Hello Everyone!
Just want to share this trade setup I did prior to the holidays which got filled this morning.
USDJPY Sell zone.jpg

(Unfortunately this trade setup was not in my blog of analysis and trade recommendations as I was too excited for the holidays and didn't end up writing it)

This trade is a counter trend trade with no replacements in my study. So therefore was using fib extention forecast to pin point possible retracements

  1. This level is a 161.8 fib ext
  2. weekly resistance pivot level,
  3. Physiological level

With three points - some sort of retracements is highly likely.

Currently took partial profits (majority of my trade out at 15pips) and will look for lower and b.e stops

Thanks

htsang / forex_Trader168 (Check out my profile!)

I provide free daily analysis on four pairs and daily trade recommendation trades.

Cheers!

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Only the strong survives!
  • #40,790
  • Dec 27, 2013 10:32am Dec 27, 2013 10:32am
H&S on m1? Or continuance of upward trend? I'm of the latter opinion. For the short term anyway
  • #40,791
  • Dec 27, 2013 10:44am Dec 27, 2013 10:44am
Hit TP 105. Placed a small short for quick pips before a good night rest.
Never let success get to your head because the market will punish you
  • #40,792
  • Dec 27, 2013 11:58am Dec 27, 2013 11:58am
Failing to crack 105 on closing will lead to 103.50 again be4 breaking 106++
  • #40,793
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:03pm Dec 27, 2013 12:03pm
4hr close >105. Looks really good for bulls right now. Not expecting a weekly close under 105 at this point.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,794
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:16pm Dec 27, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting zusch
4hr close >105. Looks really good for bulls right now. Not expecting a weekly close under 105 at this point.
yes its difficult for bears, but either Euro or Yen is trapping on long side.
  • #40,795
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:32pm Dec 27, 2013 12:32pm
But with gap , new high creates doubt over sustainability. It should fill the gap
  • #40,796
  • Dec 29, 2013 11:06am Dec 29, 2013 11:06am
fundamentally, there is no case for a reversal in this pair. The BOJ looks to expand their monetary easing while the Fed has already made moves to pullback their QE program. The data has shown that Abenomics has shown progress in fighting japanese deflation so there will be more pressure to keep the easy money going if not adding more to it.

The 109-110 level is the next target. Any pullbacks will be a gift really.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #40,797
  • Dec 29, 2013 5:52pm Dec 29, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting OMGtrader
fundamentally, there is no case for a reversal in this pair. The BOJ looks to expand their monetary easing while the Fed has already made moves to pullback their QE program. The data has shown that Abenomics has shown progress in fighting japanese deflation so there will be more pressure to keep the easy money going if not adding more to it. The 109-110 level is the next target. Any pullbacks will be a gift really.

Couldn't agree more... I also pointed out previously that the last USD/JPY rally spun about 8 month straight in such an uniform fashion.. seems almost mechanical.

Certain pairs, you can get away with being cute in a counter trend trade here and there, while other ones... it's rather foolish and you will be crushed. USD/JPY seems to be that way until proven guilty only technically speaking here....now you add real fundamentals... it's like pouring gasoline on fire.

I would be very cautious going short something that has this type of pattern and momentum.

In my personal experiences so far... it would take some serious fundamental shift and/or ironclad technical barrier to bring a stop in this current movement.

  • #40,798
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:42pm Dec 29, 2013 7:42pm
Very bullish dollar and weak YEN this morning.
  • #40,799
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:47pm Dec 29, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting Orientxpress
{quote} Couldn't agree more... I also pointed out previously that the last USD/JPY rally spun about 8 month straight in such an uniform fashion.. seems almost mechanical. Certain pairs, you can get away with being cute in a counter trend trade here and there, while other ones... it's rather foolish and you will be crushed. USD/JPY seems to be that way until proven guilty only technically speaking here....now you add real fundamentals... it's like pouring gasoline on fire. I would be very cautious going short something that has this type of pattern...
US has too much of cheap money floating around and the interest rates are all time low as well. The QE taper proposed is almost nothing and FED already has indicated that there won't be any further taper until June 2014.. So, I don't think UJ will go pass 106. It is true that Abenomics is working but what you also need to see is that japanese stocks are in a overbought territory and sales tax hikes are looming.. So, people will start taking profit soon.. so my analysis says UJ will hit 100 in coming months,.
  • #40,800
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:53pm Dec 29, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting veer2010
{quote} US has too much of cheap money floating around and the interest rates are all time low as well. The QE taper proposed is almost nothing and FED already has indicated that there won't be any further taper until June 2014.. So, I don't think UJ will go pass 106. It is true that Abenomics is working but what you also need to see is that japanese stocks are in a overbought territory and sales tax hikes are looming.. So, people will start taking profit soon.. so my analysis says UJ will hit 100 in coming months,.

Seems though that the US is ok with the YEN weakening. Seems to weaken in Asia when Japan's market opens up, then in Europe when Europe opens up and last in the US when US markets open up. Looks like everyone out there see a weaker YEN and stronger dollar.
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