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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,741
  • Dec 24, 2013 11:41am Dec 24, 2013 11:41am
was trading at $88.53. FXA was trading -4.98 percent below its fifty-day moving average and down 6.73 percent below its 200-day moving average.
  • #40,742
  • Dec 24, 2013 12:15pm Dec 24, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} That's why these pull backs must occur. Only the patient high probability trend traders will get the best entry + reentries


Agreed, pull backs must occur otherwise it overheats and excessive downside moves occur, sometimes commonly referred to as a crash (at least for those on the wrong side of the market – most of you would be). This was partly the reason we had the excessive downside move in late May and early June.



Quoting Ck87
{quote}But not everyone is bullish, it's about 50-50. Still plenty of room to go higher long term. In the immediate term tho.... look out below imo


Don’t agree, and would recommend you fact check (and please don’t quote me retail brokerage garbage – most of those orders don’t even hit real markets). The market (specs and funds) are -130,000 6J contracts short in the futures market. Traders looking to profit from a weakening Yen are very short, it’s hard to determine an actual percentage ratio, but it’s certainly not 50-50.
  • #40,743
  • Dec 24, 2013 3:46pm Dec 24, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} Agreed, pull backs must occur otherwise it overheats and excessive downside moves occur, sometimes commonly referred to as a crash (at least for those on the wrong side of the market – most of you would be). This was partly the reason we had the excessive downside move in late May and early June. {quote} Don’t agree, and would recommend you fact check (and please don’t quote me retail brokerage garbage – most of those orders don’t even hit real markets). The market (specs and funds) are -130,000 6J contracts short in the futures market....
BOJ could always step in at any time to move their currency in either direction at any time so regardless of what the exact numbers are I would not focus too much on them.

export numbers are bad so I see many currencies depreciating further though. They may strengthen it first to get rid of bulls in the short term or milk it up further to get rid of shorts.
  • #40,744
  • Dec 24, 2013 4:02pm Dec 24, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting reggiecjh
{quote} Both fundamentally and technically unanimous. It's unavoidable. Merry Christmas!
good. I'll hold on to my shorts then.
  • #40,745
  • Dec 24, 2013 4:24pm Dec 24, 2013 4:24pm
if spider really correlates with USD. it will go higher up to 108.00. for now, I shorted it. 10 pips down. >.<
  • #40,746
  • Dec 24, 2013 4:42pm Dec 24, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} BOJ could always step in at any time to move their currency in either direction at any time so regardless of what the exact numbers are I would not focus too much on them. export numbers are bad so I see many currencies depreciating further though. They may strengthen it first to get rid of bulls in the short term or milk it up further to get rid of shorts.


It’s not that easy.

If the BOJ “directly” intervenes to weaken there currency they will raise alarms in Asia and with other organizations, such as the G-6 and G-20 where they have promised to not do so. Specifically Korea and a number of other countries and corporations have already brought this up.

You need to understand the bigger picture. The BOJ has a mandate to intervene in the JGB market, not the FX market.

Stimulus is an indirect tool to weaken currency, generally allowed since the US has been doing it for years now. If no new stimulus is released or planned (and most economists expect more planned post-sales tax hike) you can expect JPY weakness to stabilize or even retract, to a point.
  • #40,747
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:19pm Dec 24, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting card
{quote} good. I'll hold on to my shorts then.
  • #40,748
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:28pm Dec 24, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} It’s not that easy. If the BOJ “directly” intervenes to weaken there currency they will raise alarms in Asia and with other organizations, such as the G-6 and G-20 where they have promised to not do so. Specifically Korea and a number of other countries and corporations have already brought this up. You need to understand the bigger picture. The BOJ has a mandate to intervene in the JGB market, not the FX market. Stimulus is an indirect tool to weaken currency, generally allowed since the US has been doing it for years now. If no new stimulus...
well stated Sean this move up for the USD/JPY has been due to USD strength mostly with some JPY weakness. Also the GBP and EUR have strengthened so those crosses moves have been massive. JPY has been jawboning about possibly increasing stimulus further but at this point the chances are slim to none. This move up has been heavily waited on the anticipation of the taper. I think the taper hurt USD/JPY chances of going higher actually because now good news dosen't signal the anticipation of the taper ne more it is just in itself good news nothing more substansive from a policy standpoint I see bearish cues when looking technically also I think looking for shorts is very reasonable and I think ppl who have thought this will be a one way street to 110 may be in for a rude awakening especially now that the crosses look like they may be fizziling out also
  • #40,749
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:30pm Dec 24, 2013 5:30pm
Longer term chances look good for a significantly higher USD/JPY
  • #40,750
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:32pm Dec 25, 2013 4:32pm
Tmr's initial claims will push the move faster...
use leverage with caution...
  • #40,751
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:41pm Dec 25, 2013 4:41pm
Huge gap up in Asian opening....104.4 will be key to higher up if breached.

2014 will probably see 105-108.
  • #40,752
  • Dec 25, 2013 5:42pm Dec 25, 2013 5:42pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,753
  • Dec 25, 2013 5:44pm Dec 25, 2013 5:44pm
Out at 104.55... Wonderful year end.

merry Christmas everyone.
use leverage with caution...
  • #40,754
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:09pm Dec 25, 2013 6:09pm
guys why is TOS and fxpro not showing any movement on this chart?
  • #40,755
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:11pm Dec 25, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting forex_fairy
guys why is TOS and fxpro not showing any movement on this chart?


Are you looking at the 6J future? If so, GLOBEX is closed until 6AM EST tomorrow morning – special opening time.
  • #40,756
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:17pm Dec 25, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} Are you looking at the 6J future? If so, GLOBEX is closed until 6AM EST tomorrow morning – special opening time.

No you don't get what i mean. I have 3 brokers. Oanda, fxpro and TOS and both TOS and fxpro are not moving at all. The price isn't moving on uusdjpy on both these 2. It's moving on oanda. I cannot close or open trades on fxpro. It's so weird.
  • #40,757
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:22pm Dec 25, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} No you don't get what i mean. I have 3 brokers. Oanda, fxpro and TOS and both TOS and fxpro are not moving at all. The price isn't moving on uusdjpy on both these 2. It's moving on oanda. I cannot close or open trades on fxpro. It's so weird.
They are probably closed until London Opening as many brokers are.

Merry Christmas to one and all.
  • #40,758
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:24pm Dec 25, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting SmoothTrader
{quote} They are probably closed until London Opening as many brokers are. Merry Christmas to one and all.


Oh i see but why is oanada moving? Also if they are closed who the hell is trading?

It doesn't make sense if some brokers are open and some are closed this means it's still trading so those on fxpro for example are screwed right now they cannot open or close.
  • #40,759
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:33pm Dec 25, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} Oh i see but why is oanada moving? Also if they are closed who the hell is trading? It doesn't make sense if some brokers are open and some are closed this means it's still trading so those on fxpro for example are screwed right now they cannot open or close.

Oanada is open. The others are closed. Which means their clients can not open nor close their trades.
  • #40,760
  • Dec 25, 2013 6:40pm Dec 25, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} Oh i see but why is oanada moving? Also if they are closed who the hell is trading? It doesn't make sense if some brokers are open and some are closed this means it's still trading so those on fxpro for example are screwed right now they cannot open or close.


I would assume that FXPro and TOS are both ECN brokers? The liquidity on the ECNs right now is light, very light but trading. They have probably made the business decision to just close and not offer service until some specified time over the holidays.

Oanda orders don’t go anywhere, but to Oanda. They are just quoting you those low-liquidity numbers from the ECNs. They (might) figure this low liquidity environment is perfect for more client loses, which means gains to them – they are probably right.

The CME FX futures market is closed outright until early tomorrow morning; this is all scheduled and clearly notified to traders.

This should ring a bell in your head – be very careful trading right now, the (vast majority) of professionals are not.
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