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  • #865,521
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:49am Dec 23, 2013 11:49am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} If euro cannot convincingly get and stay above 3715, it is down.
It cannot sustain by direct spike above 3720 but it may try to find a way like 34xx-35xx area to overcome.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #865,522
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:53am Dec 23, 2013 11:53am
Small TF? Big TF?
Wish you all a Happy holidays in FF
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #865,523
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:56am Dec 23, 2013 11:56am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} Secret underground network of financial Darth Vaders merry Xmas Infinitus {image}



Merry Christmas to you as well, Chazzle
  • #865,524
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:06pm Dec 23, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting htsang
{quote} meaning myself sorry. I write my own analysis on my own blog daily tracking four pairs. Feel free to have a look Cheers


Hi Htsang,


thanks a lot for the link you sent me. Very nice work :-)

Keep up the good work
  • #865,525
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:13pm Dec 23, 2013 12:13pm
No matter what advises others have,you have to have your opinion,your plan.your time frame,your reasons,and your risk.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #865,526
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:18pm Dec 23, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Did you bail? Now you see the powar of YULOL

No, I'm still short EURO across the board, still looks really weak to me although it does look like it can go a bit higher the next day or two.. still seems to be more likely it will be goin down for the next few 100 pips.
  • #865,527
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:19pm Dec 23, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} No, I'm still short EURO across the board, still looks really weak to me although it does look like it can go a bit higher the next day or two.. still seems to be more likely it will be goin down for the next few 100 pips.

Agree, give it 1.36!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #865,528
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:22pm Dec 23, 2013 12:22pm
Anyone can release the handbrake on EUR/USD for the downtrend..price still trying to move south ..
The difference between gambling and speculating is risk management
  • #865,529
  • Edited 12:50pm Dec 23, 2013 12:31pm | Edited 12:50pm
In the next 24 hours I expect to get a very high % sell set up on EU. Gotta be patient though.

Should be higher % to sell AU though, because that is a confirmed downtrend, EU is still in the air. It looks like the start of downtrend but it's still anyone's game really.
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  • #865,530
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:39pm Dec 23, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting attila
stop in place. nap time. think day's over. if it's not, then I'll look under the Christmas tree.
yeahh...
  • #865,531
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:50pm Dec 23, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} If euro cannot convincingly get and stay above 3715, it is down.

Yeah brothers,that is the number:1.37100...and you can see the sharp rejection that forced the bulls back down
  • #865,532
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:51pm Dec 23, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting Ck87
In the next 24 hours I expect to get a very high % sell set up on EU. Gotta be patient though. {image}
I'm totally confused... Which one are you playing? The green channel, the red TL, the pivots, the stochastic (this one is really useless) or the MA cross? Or maybe it's the blue rectangles that I completely have no clue what they mean.. Because they all tell different stories... Or maybe you make up your mind and then you pick the ones that support your point... Either way I admire your conviction..

Edit: oh, I see.. you've got yourself confused as well.. now you say it'll drop, now you say it's up in the air.. thanks.
  • #865,533
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:52pm Dec 23, 2013 12:52pm
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  • #865,534
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:56pm Dec 23, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I'm totally confused... Which one are you playing? The green channel, the red TL, the pivots, the stochastic (this one is really useless) or the MA cross? Or maybe it's the blue rectangles that I completely have no clue what they mean.. Because they all tell different stories... Or maybe you make up your mind and then you pick the ones that support your point... Either way I admire your conviction..

Green channel is an indicator that is automatically drawn. Would expect EU to top at the top of it if it continues higher toward around 1.375.

Red TL is drawn from the lows at 1.33 and has been broken.

I do use pivots and stochastics and would definitely argue that stochastic is not worthless when used in direction of trend.

Blue rectangles highlight two h4 pin bars when price has attempted to go back above red TL.

Seems complicated I guess, simple really

As far as the trend goes, it's still up in the air. My own bias is to the downside, which is of course dangerous in this business.
  • #865,535
  • Dec 23, 2013 12:58pm Dec 23, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Green channel is an indicator that is automatically drawn. Would expect EU to top at the top of it if it continues higher toward around 1.375. Red TL is drawn from the lows at 1.33 and has been broken. I do use pivots and stochastics and would definitely argue that stochastic is not worthless when used in direction of trend. Blue rectangles highlight two h4 pin bars when price has attempted to go back above red TL. Seems complicated I guess, simple really As far as the trend goes, it's still up in the air. My own bias is to the downside,...
So they all point either up or down.. which one is it?

Nevermind. It doesn't matter..
  • #865,536
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:00pm Dec 23, 2013 1:00pm
Quoting attila
{quote} So they all point either up or down.. which one is it? Nevermind. It doesn't matter..

Well this is H4 chart, I also look at D1 and W1 and Monthly charts, and what I see there is massively overbought momentum. Double top 1.38, Stopped at weekly TL drawn from highs.

It doesn't look good.

The only thing that concerns me is that the sentiment is pretty bearish and I don't like it when there's a lot of bears, which seems to be the case right now. That is literally the only thing that worries me.

If I was a smarter trader I'd be on the sidelines and wait for price to show more confirmation, and then wait for a retrace to sell. But I'm not that smart
  • #865,537
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:11pm Dec 23, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I'm totally confused... Which one are you playing? The green channel, the red TL, the pivots, the stochastic (this one is really useless) or the MA cross? Or maybe it's the blue rectangles that I completely have no clue what they mean.. Because they all tell different stories... Or maybe you make up your mind and then you pick the ones that support your point... Either way I admire your conviction.. Edit: oh, I see.. you've got yourself confused as well.. now you say it'll drop, now you say it's up in the air.. thanks.
Please permit me to intrude: starting from price action itself, i think by the blue rectangles he`s drawing our attention to the rejection on Friday and the one of today,and the red TL is showing a supply trend-line break that got retested and of course rejected twice,and the MAs are climbing up from underneath where they acted as support to above where they are to become resistance(like we see in 1.38 top area)MAs are lagging indicators,they trail price slowly,remember,the pivot seemed to play resistance and the stochastic is slowly approaching the overbought region.As for the green channel,whether we will break it upward or downward depends on if we break and stay above 1.37100(for the upward) or we break and stay below 1.36100(for the downward)the later seems more in play that the former...i`m a little biased,bearish,i mean.
  • #865,538
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:12pm Dec 23, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting chazzle
{quote} GU M5 took the same - that's it now , time to get my Xmas hat on {image}
Merry Christmas my Friend to you and your family..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #865,539
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:13pm Dec 23, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} Please permit me to intrude: starting from price action itself, i think by the blue rectangles he`s drawing our attention to the rejection on Friday and the one of today,and the red TL is showing a supply trend-line break that got retested and of course rejected twice,and the MAs are climbing up from underneath where they acted as support to above where they are to become resistance(like we see in 1.38 top area)MAs are lagging indicators,they trail price slowly,remember,the pivot seemed to play resistance and the stochastic is slowly approaching...
rite. but my question was how do you play all those conflicting things? add multiple time frames and now you're really screwed.. I'm not making anything out of this, just wondering how is it possible to trade this way..
  • #865,540
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:17pm Dec 23, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Well this is H4 chart, I also look at D1 and W1 and Monthly charts, and what I see there is massively overbought momentum. Double top 1.38, Stopped at weekly TL drawn from highs. It doesn't look good. The only thing that concerns me is that the sentiment is pretty bearish and I don't like it when there's a lot of bears, which seems to be the case right now. That is literally the only thing that worries me. If I was a smarter trader I'd be on the sidelines and wait for price to show more confirmation, and then wait for a retrace to sell....

Very good post here, you have everything in favour for EU bear. So you play the higher probability move. Its not about how smart you are but more so intuition. There are a lot of smart people out there that might make a quick dime but cant keep a nickel over time.
All posts are my personal opinion
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