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  • #71,681
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:39am Dec 20, 2013 7:39am
Quoting bikov
{quote} Merry Christmas to all and happy holidays ! I'm celebrating on January 7 (orthodox christian) but that's not a problem to wish to everyone love & happiness right now. I know,we are always late (our New Year on January 13th), but what can you do .
Ahh it's all the same. Just a slight synchronization failure in the calendar
Enjoy mate
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,682
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:44am Dec 20, 2013 7:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I know about 10 people who do not believe in anything but themselves and their friends/family. To me they are still people and deserve all the same respect as everyone else... including me. Anyway, yes I am now on holidays until the new year. Trading will be very thin next week and I think that today we will get consolidation to where price wants to enter the new year. I think 2014 will be very bullish for risk assets. With today's blowout US Q3 GDP revision to 4.1% coupled with low market volume, the US Dollar should take a bit of a beating...

oh. yea. i remember that day around 1.30-1.32 last year..

Merry Christmas to all and happy holidays !
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,683
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:51am Dec 20, 2013 7:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ahh it's all the same. Just a slight synchronization failure in the calendar Enjoy mate

forgot to ask, can an expanding triangle become corrective wave in impulsive move (w2 or w4)?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,684
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:19am Dec 20, 2013 8:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I know about 10 people who do not believe in anything but themselves and their friends/family. To me they are still people and deserve all the same respect as everyone else... including me. Anyway, yes I am now on holidays until the new year. Trading will be very thin next week and I think that today we will get consolidation to where price wants to enter the new year. [b]I think 2014 will be very bullish for risk assets. With today's blowout US Q3 GDP revision to 4.1% coupled with low market volume, the US Dollar should take a bit of a...


Hasnt this story already been the theme of 2013? Only the driver has been central bank easing and not necessarily a strong US economy. I would argue that 2013's reflation trade was based on QE from the Fed and BOJ. Now that QE is going to be removed next year I think it should bode well for the dollar, and bearish to neutral for stocks. Now that the FOMC has stated they will take "measure steps" to reduce QE, perceived as 10bn in reductions at each meeting.... I dont want to imagine what would happen to stocks if payroll gains slip for a few months but the FOMC continues to taper.
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  • #71,685
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:23am Dec 20, 2013 8:23am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} forgot to ask, can an expanding triangle become corrective wave in impulsive move (w2 or w4)?
A triangle is always a corrective formation. The only question is whether it is bullish or bearish. It doesn't matter if it is a contracting or expanding triangle, the rule is the same, and that is if the triangle is correcting a bullish trend, then it will continue bullish when it exists the triangle. The only exception is in extreme circumstances where the underlying macro conditions experience an unexpected shock and the triangle fails.

Also you must be careful not to confuse a triangle with a wedge because a triangle is a continuation pattern whereas a wedge is a reversal pattern. Nonetheless, they both can fail, but a wedge fails more often than a triangle.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,686
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:31am Dec 20, 2013 8:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} A triangle is always a corrective formation. The only question is whether it is bullish or bearish. It doesn't matter if it is a contracting or expanding triangle, the rule is the same, and that is if the triangle is correcting a bullish trend, then it will continue bullish when it exists the triangle. The only exception is in extreme circumstances where the underlying macro conditions experience an unexpected shock and the triangle fails. Also you must be careful not to confuse a triangle with a wedge because a triangle is a continuation...

thanks.
this am talking about is on the 1 m chart.
neely said its possible in b wave and rarely in 4th wave
neely said its should result c wave failure, but currently the c wave is near 200 extension of the a wave.
maybe im wrong spotting this pattern on 1 m
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,687
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:45am Dec 20, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Hasnt this story already been the theme of 2013? Only the driver has been central bank easing and not necessarily a strong US economy. I would argue that 2013's reflation trade was based on QE from the Fed and BOJ. Now that QE is going to be removed next year I think it should bode well for the dollar, and bearish to neutral for stocks. Now that the FOMC has stated they will take "measure steps" to reduce QE, perceived as 10bn in reductions at each meeting.... I dont want to imagine what would happen to stocks if payroll gains slip for a...
No doubt the equity markets are long overdue a correction and we will probably see it in January, but then as long as the US economy still looks good, equities will continue upwards. I expect to see at least a 10% correction, but most time my expectations are proven wrong, so we shall just have to wait and see.

As for the Euro and Cable, in a risk-on environment they will (or should) outperform the USD until the ECB and the BOE do something about it... and my feeling is that they will be left with no choice but to intervene. More so the ECB than the BOE though.

The commodity and EM currencies are the ones that should be receiving a jolly good beating in 2014 vs the USD as I am sure that as long as the US job numbers continue to shine, the USD should experience a very hefty rally.

Regarding taper, I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that the main determining factor that Yellen will use in measuring when and how much to taper will be more tied to the short end of the yield curve than anything else.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,688
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:49am Dec 20, 2013 8:49am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} thanks. this am talking about is on the 1 m chart. neely said its possible in b wave and rarely in 4th wave neely said its should result c wave failure, but currently the c wave is near 200 extension of the a wave. maybe im wrong spotting this pattern on 1 m
Do you mean 1 minute or 1 month?
If you mean 1 minute, forget it.

By the way, I have personally never see an expanding triangle on wave 2 or 4. It is more of a B wave pattern.
In very rare cases, a leading diagonal can be mistaken as an expanding triangle.

ADD: This page might help >>> http://www.elliottwave.net/education...ts/basics3.htm
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,689
  • Dec 20, 2013 6:02pm Dec 20, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Do you mean 1 minute or 1 month? If you mean 1 minute, forget it. By the way, I have personally never see an expanding triangle on wave 2 or 4. It is more of a B wave pattern. In very rare cases, a leading diagonal can be mistaken as an expanding triangle. ADD: This page might help >>> http://www.elliottwave.net/education...ts/basics3.htm
1 minute
thx for the link
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #71,690
  • Dec 22, 2013 3:58pm Dec 22, 2013 3:58pm
Dollar index continues to hold above 80.5 looks mighty bullish for the dollar. 82 looks like next leg extension.

The consolidation phase from Nov to early Dec may finally break to the upside.

From the looks of it... Euro still has a lower target of 1.355. U/J well... not much till 108.5.

Simple technical look for me in the coming days until facts change.

Happy Holidays
  • #71,691
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:21pm Dec 22, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Orientxpress
Dollar index continues to hold above 80.5 looks mighty bullish for the dollar. 82 looks like next leg extension. The consolidation phase from Nov to early Dec may finally break to the upside. From the looks of it... Euro still has a lower target of 1.355. U/J well... not much till 108.5. Simple technical look for me in the coming days until facts change. Happy Holidays
Agreed. I'm actually already looking forward to loading up on Euros at 1.3500/50 area. Patience patience.
I think we may see 1.3720/40 first though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,692
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:24pm Dec 22, 2013 4:24pm
Do you all think I am nuts if I say that I can see how there is a significant potential for the Euro to break above the 2008 highs by late 2014 / early 2015?

It's okay if you do. Everyone thought I was nuts when I was calling for 1.16 by late 2010 when the Euro was trading around 1.51 in late 2009. Yes I was wrong about it. It only made it to 1.1875 and it came 5 months earlier than I had anticipated, but hey I never claimed to be psychic.

Besides, not so long ago (about 2 weeks I think), I was calling for a rally to 1.4x followed by a drop to 1.14. Now I've changed my mind and I am more leaning towards 1.4x, followed by 1.32 before launching on a nice long rally to test the all time highs. Don't trade on that though... I might change my mind again tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,693
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:27pm Dec 22, 2013 4:27pm
The Top Ten Skills of Profitable Traders

  1. They Develop robust systems using principles and patterns that work and are based on historical back testing.
  2. They Write a trading plan that fits their personality and results in profitability.
  3. They have the discipline and self control to follow their trading plan.
  4. They are always trading a position size that limits their losses to a manageable level and eliminates the risk of their ruin.
  5. They are also trading a position size that lowers their emotions to a level where they can manage them.
  6. The best traders are reactors to price action in the present moment not predictors of the future.
  7. Profitable traders have faith in themselves and believe that they really are great traders.
  8. Many profitable traders have an almost religious zeal for their particular methodology and they know that it works.
  9. Almost all profitable traders have learned valuable lessons on what works and what does not through the experience of trading and losing real money.
  10. All profitable traders posses the perseverance.
  11. All profitable traders are simply new traders that never gave up until they figured it out.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,694
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:47pm Dec 22, 2013 4:47pm
It's always cruel to predict something far in the future, despite technical / fundamental certainties... but simply CANNOT trade ergo make money off of the trading thesis... due to insufficient capital, risk parameter, etc...

I think we do this out of context away from our trading perspective...by doing this, we loosen our stress due to the uncertainties from day to day operations. * the need to be right, to be heard? *

We are essentially short term traders for the most part... holding time generally from minutes to days... unlikely weeks...

I can't speak for everyone, but I never learned enough fundamental approach to form it into a trading thesis... it's hard to quantify risk. If any traders here can provide some ground work for something like a top down approach with risk parameters, etc... then perhaps we make it into a trading thesis, otherwise... it's pure illusion.

Before I head out of office today, here's a prediction of mine in regards to the EURO... Either touches 1.3 or 1.4, now roll the dice!

​
  • #71,695
  • Dec 23, 2013 6:41am Dec 23, 2013 6:41am
Quoting Orientxpress
It's always cruel to predict something far in the future, despite technical / fundamental certainties... but simply CANNOT trade ergo make money off of the trading thesis... due to insufficient capital, risk parameter, etc... I think we do this out of context away from our trading perspective...by doing this, we loosen our stress due to the uncertainties from day to day operations. * the need to be right, to be heard? * We are essentially short term traders for the most part... holding time generally from minutes to days... unlikely weeks... I can't...
With today's action, I proclaim one more nail in the USD's coffin.
It's risk-on folks. No matter how much positive US data comes out, the Euro keeps on truckin'.
The advice best dispensed here is simple... "Follow price action and trade contrary to retail crowd sentiment".

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,696
  • Dec 23, 2013 6:49am Dec 23, 2013 6:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} With today's action, I proclaim one more nail in the USD's coffin. It's risk-on folks. No matter how much positive US data comes out, the Euro keeps on truckin'. The advice best dispensed here is simple... "Follow price action and trade contrary to retail crowd sentiment". {image} {image}
so you are saying to long the euro here and that basically retail are always wrong and money is always made by paying opposite to what retail does? I would like to see your trades before giving advice like this
  • #71,697
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:02am Dec 23, 2013 7:02am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so you are saying to long the euro here and that basically retail are always wrong and money is always made by paying opposite to what retail does? I would like to see your trades before giving advice like this
The answer to your first question is a resounding "NO". Did I say buy now? No I didn't.
If you scroll back a few pages, you will find my analysis, but to make it easier for you, I'll lay it out here again...

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} No doubt the equity markets are long overdue a correction and we will probably see it in January, but then as long as the US economy still looks good, equities will continue upwards. I expect to see at least a 10% correction, but most time my expectations are proven wrong, so we shall just have to wait and see. As for the Euro and Cable, in a risk-on environment they will (or should) outperform the USD until the ECB and the BOE do something about it... and my feeling is that they will be left with no choice but to intervene. More so the ECB than the BOE though. The commodity and EM currencies are the ones that should be receiving a jolly good beating in 2014 vs the USD as I am sure that as long as the US job numbers continue to shine, the USD should experience a very hefty rally. Regarding taper, I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that the main determining factor that Yellen will use in measuring when and how much to taper will be more tied to the short end of the yield curve than anything else.
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That all depends what drug they bring to the party. If they bring LTRO or FLS, that would be Euro bullish. If they bring negative deposit rates, that would be Euro bearish. So, be careful how you position yourself on any news that the ECB is going to "act".

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Agreed. I'm actually already looking forward to loading up on Euros at 1.3500/50 area. Patience patience. I think we may see 1.3720/40 first though.

and there is more before that, but you'll have to go and look for it yourself.

ADD: By the way, Merry Christmas.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,698
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:09am Dec 23, 2013 7:09am
yes Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May this new year bring loads of profit to you
  • #71,699
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:10am Dec 23, 2013 7:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The answer to your first question is a resounding "NO". Did I say buy now? No I didn't. If you scroll back a few pages, you will find my analysis, but to make it easier for you, I'll lay it out here again... {quote} {quote} {quote} and there is more before that, but you'll have to go and look for it yourself. ADD: By the way, Merry Christmas.
yes Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May this new year bring loads of profit to you
  • #71,700
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:14am Dec 23, 2013 7:14am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} yes Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May this new year bring loads of profit to you
You might be interested in what I posted in the news section. It is more based on investor sentiment than on trader sentiment.

  1. Okay guys... Look at it this way.
    Does anyone here think that the world is going to invest in USA industries more than in half beaten economies with huge potential? I submit to you that if you do believe that, then I think you may be lacking some understanding of global macroeconomics... or perhaps you're a bit biased.

    Gain / yield / profit is what the market wants and they want as much as they can get. Therefore, they will look for beaten down investments. So where are they going to find such beasts? The US? No effin way. Corporate and Industrial America are on solid footing and whilst their potential for further growth is quite significant, it fails in comparison to other established economies. The beaten down investments are in those nations that have suffered the most yet are supported by solid old money. So where do we find these? Simple answer is the European Union. Most attractive will be the PIIGS (or to be politically correct, GIIPS) nations of the Eurozone where a wise stock picker will easily double his money in a short period of time. Therefore, as long as the ECB does not introduce negative deposit rates and instead provides more LTRO money or implements a FLS (Funding for Lending Scheme), I expect to see the EuroStoxx 600 outperform the SP500 and DJIA combined... and that will drive capital of the greedy from both US equities and US bonds into the European equity markets thereby propping up European currencies... and I don't mean only the Euro.

    Also, you cannot exclude emerging markets and the commodity block once economic activity picks up again in Europe. Europe is a huge consumer of natural resources (Commodity block) and outsourced services (India) and imported cheap goods (China). Of course this will not really take off, until Europeans start spending and growing again. It may take some years, but in the meantime, investment money will flow in to Europe from lower yielding (sometimes called "safe haven") currencies such as the USD, the CHF and the JPY.

    Don't ask me when all this will happen. I suck at timing, but I can assure you that this will be the next major macro move as long as the shit doesn't hit the fan before then. Shit hitting fan = the world goes to hell in a hand basket, in which case buy loads and loads of physical gold, a few animals, lots of vegetable seeds, fruit trees, water and fuel reserves and build yourself an impenetrable fortress. Not that any of the above will guarantee your survival, but it'll give you an upper hand.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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