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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,701
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:42pm Dec 20, 2013 10:42pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7169779

UJ H4 103.25 area ..........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #40,702
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:49am Dec 21, 2013 8:49am
Quoting forexalien
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post7169779 UJ H4 103.25 area ..........
agree, maybe with a gap down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd4h.PNG Size: 65 KB
just do it
  • #40,703
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:37am Dec 21, 2013 9:37am
Quoting thodie
{quote} agree, maybe with a gap down {image}
I like the use of the black stochastic you have. if it stays high like that , every time the green stochastic goes down to the bottom , for sure it will rise back up to the black stochastic again...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #40,704
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:53am Dec 21, 2013 9:53am
Thodie,

Could you post your stochastic stack indicator?
Thanks
  • #40,705
  • Dec 21, 2013 11:19am Dec 21, 2013 11:19am
Quoting zusch
{quote} Friday can be a good trading day b/c its the close of weekly candles like Nov 22 this year was a great buy at 101 on the dip. I'm not really sure if this is a strong trend. As a stock trader as well, I've got to say that this had been very crappy momentum up & was expecting to be where we are now 3 weeks ago. We've now gone up 8 weeks in a row so may be a bit of a coincidence if we fall next week... because the run up from <80 was 8 consecutive green months. Charts are still saying buy, but I'm being cautious. Should next week sell off,...
You're not sure if this is a strong trend? Hahaha. That's a good one. As far as I can tell this is the absolute strongest trend of all right now. Maybe with exception of global stock markets, especially the US.
  • #40,706
  • Dec 21, 2013 5:40pm Dec 21, 2013 5:40pm
I think I found your Stoc stack indicator, but using the ma that you show, mine does not look the same. What are your settings?
  • #40,707
  • Dec 22, 2013 9:04am Dec 22, 2013 9:04am
Last weeks close above the previous May high suggests to me that it will test 105.00 before a significant pullback. Let's see what happens when/if it tests that previous resistance at 103.73.
  • #40,708
  • Dec 22, 2013 9:11am Dec 22, 2013 9:11am
Quoting rcbarlow
Thodie, Could you post your stochastic stack indicator? Thanks
sure, have fun
slowest - fastest and a mid level is drawed in double line size.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 StochasticStack.ex4   7 KB | 333 downloads
File Type: mq4 StochasticStack.mq4   6 KB | 377 downloads
just do it
  • #40,709
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:37pm Dec 22, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You're not sure if this is a strong trend? Hahaha. That's a good one. As far as I can tell this is the absolute strongest trend of all right now. Maybe with exception of global stock markets, especially the US.
Yeah that is what I'm saying. While I have managed to be long for a good chunk of this U/J move, it has been very hard to add in aggressively. So far this month, U/J has only gone up 150 pips after a great November that seemed to be the breakout.

Gap down to 104 tonight. This to me in a warning sign b/c I'd prefer a open at 104.15, so that a move down to 104 could mean just a daily wick off the round number. Watch 104.25 (the 50% Fib of Friday) for sellers.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,710
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:48pm Dec 22, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Yeah that is what I'm saying. While I have managed to be long for a good chunk of this U/J move, it has been very hard to add in aggressively. So far this month, U/J has only gone up 150 pips after a great November that seemed to be the breakout. Gap down to 104 tonight. This to me in a warning sign b/c I'd prefer a open at 104.15, so that a move down to 104 could mean just a daily wick off the round number. Watch 104.25 (the 50% Fib of Friday) for sellers.
Japan bank holiday not expecting much movement.
  • #40,711
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:04pm Dec 22, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Japan bank holiday not expecting much movement.
Maybe there won't be...but I've never really bought into the idea that markets shouldn't be traded around holidays b/c of light volume. Last year around this time was the start of major trends in /ES and U/J.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,712
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:29pm Dec 22, 2013 5:29pm
Hello US/JPY

Have quiet a few trades in longs,

Got bigger ones to come out 105

An a stack off small ones opened up to 108

The YEN will drop a turd on the peasants

it always happens.

CNBC money channel saying 110 next year.

Lets see what happens today:nerd:
  • #40,713
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:48pm Dec 22, 2013 5:48pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Maybe there won't be...but I've never really bought into the idea that markets shouldn't be traded around holidays b/c of light volume. Last year around this time was the start of major trends in /ES and U/J.
Agreed. You just have to look at the charts to see some pretty big moves this time of year.
  • #40,714
  • Dec 22, 2013 7:44pm Dec 22, 2013 7:44pm
Good morning! I don't know about you guys but imho the fact that it opened and closed above 104 over the weekends shows its not ready to move below 104 as yet until it hits higher resistance. What are your thoughts?
Never let success get to your head because the market will punish you
  • #40,715
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:24pm Dec 22, 2013 8:24pm
Hello US/JPY

I have to cut up an concrete drive way today,an remove the concrete.
Its one off those jobs that you really have to do your self
as the right gear has to be hired as costs quiet a bit.

My sons have done a runner an

Gone to the beach,smart move

Got a pending long 103.5 to 105 etc also 103 to 105

Hope we get some spikes,I need a few to clear the charts out.
  • #40,716
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:46pm Dec 22, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Yeah that is what I'm saying. While I have managed to be long for a good chunk of this U/J move, it has been very hard to add in aggressively. So far this month, U/J has only gone up 150 pips after a great November that seemed to be the breakout. Gap down to 104 tonight. This to me in a warning sign b/c I'd prefer a open at 104.15, so that a move down to 104 could mean just a daily wick off the round number. Watch 104.25 (the 50% Fib of Friday) for sellers.

I had some great high probability set ups to add longs at 102.50 and 102.90. But I see what you're saying and i would warmly welcome any UJ sell offs for more areas to take intraday long set ups.
  • #40,717
  • Dec 22, 2013 11:19pm Dec 22, 2013 11:19pm
USDJPY Daily Outlook for 23rd December 2013 (Monday)
**this is my personal favorite setup for the week**
Daily Chart
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ek7Zp4TBK9...2-23_00-09.jpg


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DGD2FQGs56...2-23_00-09.jpg





  1. We are trading within the 104's area which is not a strong support
  2. We expect the market to test the resistance in the near term.








Hourly Chart
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SGwCNxssf-...2-23_00-09.jpg





  1. Fell of a rising wedge and was according to my analysis last Friday
  2. I hope for market to go down to the blue area which is my demand level (50% fib retrace)which looks attractive as we haven't retested this area as an support after breakout to the 104's






Outlook Trade opportunity
Two trading opportunity here, my forecast is for price to go down to test the 50% retrace at 103.550 near term. So i will have a buy limit at that area.
If market retraces back up to around 104.32 before hitting my forecast area, i will be shorting from there down to potentially my target area and taking partial profits on the way
#1 - Short at 104.32 (only if prices have not reached my forecast of 103.550) - Target to 103.550 while taking partial profits on the way and Break even for a risk free trade)
#2 - Long at 103.550 for initial 20pips profit take majority of position off, and leave small portion for bigger trend continuation to the upside.


Risk Level Low

Only the strong survives!
  • #40,718
  • Dec 23, 2013 3:16am Dec 23, 2013 3:16am
"The best is yet to come" by Peter Brandt : http://stks.co/b01LU
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,719
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:02am Dec 23, 2013 7:02am
Looks like a nice bounce here off 38.2% (103.82) weekly Fib. This needs to hold in NY session.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,720
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:35am Dec 23, 2013 7:35am
Quoting zusch
Looks like a nice bounce here off 38.2% (103.82) weekly Fib. This needs to hold in NY session.
i have a sell signal both 1h and 4h TF - looks more like a retrace and further down.

disclaimer: i´m short like posted on friday
just do it
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