USD/JPY Discussion | Page 2035 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,681
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:48am Dec 20, 2013 12:48am
Quoting Citiboy
love it when U/J trends... but man...it almost never gives a stable pull back. Whats up with that? its like the Japanese use different algos or something, most other pairs do not trade this way.
Japanese long distance players like to sit on their positions once the M/T bias is clear & gun for several hundred pips at one go.. those Samurai candlestick warriors as a group never sell anything above rising 21 day MA & always buy retraces infront of the rising MA after price print a new high..
  • #40,682
  • Dec 20, 2013 2:15am Dec 20, 2013 2:15am
Nothing's gonna make UJ stop rising higher and higher ?
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
  • #40,683
  • Dec 20, 2013 2:46am Dec 20, 2013 2:46am
Quoting JasmineQu
Nothing's gonna make UJ stop rising higher and higher ?

Hope not
  • #40,684
  • Dec 20, 2013 3:46am Dec 20, 2013 3:46am
I wouldn't be surprised if UJ reach to 105 today. Got some longs at 104.03/08 with TP just under 105 after which I'm expecting some pullback to...don't know, we'll see. If there isn't any strong rejection and pullback, I wouldn't complain.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,685
  • Edited 7:38am Dec 20, 2013 7:26am | Edited 7:38am
THODIE IGNORED ME??!!! Everything I have stated has been accurate and has occurred. Oh well probably one who shorted and there was no true signal lmfao.
  • #40,686
  • Edited 8:08am Dec 20, 2013 7:27am | Edited 8:08am
Or maybe hes annoyed bc I have been posting alot trying to get people more active in this forum.
  • #40,687
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:28am Dec 20, 2013 7:28am
GBP should fall off the face of the planet to be honest. We shall see.
  • #40,688
  • Dec 20, 2013 8:18am Dec 20, 2013 8:18am
H4 UJ looks like it is shaping up for a 100 pip drop retrace again................

Grab the high again before doing so................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #40,689
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:15am Dec 20, 2013 9:15am
Quoting bikov
I wouldn't be surprised if UJ reach to 105 today. Got some longs at 104.03/08 with TP just under 105 after which I'm expecting some pullback to...don't know, we'll see. If there isn't any strong rejection and pullback, I wouldn't complain.

Out. Well, more luck next week/year. The other longs are staying in. Now the moves are generally random so no logic here. It's Friday and the end of the year..couldn't ask for more.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,690
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:56am Dec 20, 2013 9:56am
So back at 104 and we are bouncing a bit on 5min chart, but what is happening now was my fear as a bull last night. We made the new high daily high towards 105...(didn't get there). Then the bull trap is sprung and we fall back below yesterday and Wednesday's high. Now don't go selling your longs, but as a bull I want to see a weekly close above 104 and not below 103.93 which is last week's high.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,691
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:00am Dec 20, 2013 10:00am
We are fine...
  • #40,692
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:02am Dec 20, 2013 10:02am
Hm, is that a bear trap for USD bears that I'm seeing? Let's see, it's not over.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,693
  • Dec 20, 2013 10:28am Dec 20, 2013 10:28am
Sold a bit ago near top, bought in again at 103.9 but small because weekends make me nervous.

  • #40,694
  • Edited 12:21pm Dec 20, 2013 12:03pm | Edited 12:21pm
Pretty boring day... Dollar was a little weak and its Friday so people are taking profit and closing out their positions.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,695
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:48pm Dec 20, 2013 12:48pm
New Positions:

SLD 2 FEB07 0.0092 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000190
SLD 2 FEB07 0.0101 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200

Existing Positions:

SLD 1 JPY MAR14 Futures 0.009660
SLD 2 JAN03 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200
SLD 2 JAN03 0.0106 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000170

Position Summary:

My existing position stands the same as it did before, however the 2 PUT options are now ITM with the sold future offsetting (hedging) against one of them.

My new position is my regularly scheduled short straddle trade for the FEB07 series, looking to keep within a range of approximately (in spot terms) 108 on the top-side and 99 on the bottom between now and expiry.

The options are both pricing in an approximately 10% chance of expiring ITM.
  • #40,696
  • Dec 20, 2013 1:07pm Dec 20, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting zusch
So back at 104 and we are bouncing a bit on 5min chart, but what is happening now was my fear as a bull last night. We made the new high daily high towards 105...(didn't get there). Then the bull trap is sprung and we fall back below yesterday and Wednesday's high. Now don't go selling your longs, but as a bull I want to see a weekly close above 104 and not below 103.93 which is last week's high.

All irrelevant. It's a super strong trend. My strategy is very simple, wait for the pull backs to occur, wait for strong momentum to start up again and go long over and over.

We will go past 105, we will go to 110, we will pass there too - probably next year. Going to have tons of opportunities to load up on longs. I'm hoping to see 103.30 or so again before another long.
  • #40,697
  • Dec 20, 2013 1:24pm Dec 20, 2013 1:24pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} All irrelevant. It's a super strong trend. My strategy is very simple, wait for the pull backs to occur, wait for strong momentum to start up again and go long over and over. We will go past 105, we will go to 110, we will pass there too - probably next year. Going to have tons of opportunities to load up on longs. I'm hoping to see 103.30 or so again before another long.
No price action is irrelevant, as each timeframe tells a slightly different story. There is some price action that is more relevant than others, for example closing price action of a candle is very important b/c it is basically some people frontrunning and making their bets for the next candle.

That is why I need to see a close above last week's high. Last week price couldn't close above previous weeks high so we had a deep (past weekly 61.8% Fib) retrace this week. Maybe the reason for that was b/c Fed was speaking so traders wanted better prices, maybe it was b/c it couldn't close above previous week's highs, no one knows for sure.

As for 130.30, I like that price a lot b/c it is the 61.8% weekly Fib of this week's price range. But honestly...whenever something retraces 61.8% of the previous candle, that is pretty slow momentum to me.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,698
  • Dec 20, 2013 1:38pm Dec 20, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} No price action is irrelevant, as each timeframe tells a slightly different story. There is some price action that is more relevant than others, for example closing price action of a candle is very important b/c it is basically some people frontrunning and making their bets for the next candle. That is why I need to see a close above last week's high. Last week price couldn't close above previous weeks high so we had a deep (past weekly 61.8% Fib) retrace this week. Maybe the reason for that was b/c Fed was speaking so traders wanted better...
Idk...Honestly if we continue getting higher highs and higher lows and the previous high acts as support I don't usually get to concerned if it closes in that range. I also look at timing and Friday in general is pretty crappy for trading.

All the recent economic data that's came out recently has been in line or better than what was forcasted. Small pullbacks of 55 - 100 pips usually don't concern me when there's a strong trend. I generally look to buy those types of pullbacks.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,699
  • Dec 20, 2013 4:31pm Dec 20, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Idk...Honestly if we continue getting higher highs and higher lows and the previous high acts as support I don't usually get to concerned if it closes in that range. I also look at timing and Friday in general is pretty crappy for trading. All the recent economic data that's came out recently has been in line or better than what was forcasted. Small pullbacks of 55 - 100 pips usually don't concern me when there's a strong trend. I generally look to buy those types of pullbacks.
Friday can be a good trading day b/c its the close of weekly candles like Nov 22 this year was a great buy at 101 on the dip.

I'm not really sure if this is a strong trend. As a stock trader as well, I've got to say that this had been very crappy momentum up & was expecting to be where we are now 3 weeks ago. We've now gone up 8 weeks in a row so may be a bit of a coincidence if we fall next week... because the run up from <80 was 8 consecutive green months.

Charts are still saying buy, but I'm being cautious. Should next week sell off, the possibility of a closing the month <102 & red comes into play.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,700
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:33pm Dec 20, 2013 7:33pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} .... Should next week sell off, the possibility of a closing the month <102 & red comes into play.
great post and advise! now that most of traders here throw in numers like 108 110...
letīs take out the 105 first
just do it
31 traders viewing now