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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,661
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:40am Dec 19, 2013 11:40am
Moreso on the cusp of being oversold.
  • #40,662
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:44am Dec 19, 2013 11:44am
I honestly feel your short is premature as we are in a consolidated state currently and all charts show uptrend still. Could just be building up steam for the next movement up. (Wait for the reversal signal before shorting) Yet to be one. Id prob load some more longs.
  • #40,663
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:47am Dec 19, 2013 11:47am
btw this is nothing more than mere opinion based off what I see with my two eyes.
  • #40,664
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:35pm Dec 19, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Please keep this in mind and look at previous price action.
oh yeah. you got that right. made that painful experience before.
  • #40,665
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:56pm Dec 19, 2013 3:56pm
nice bull flag we got here
  • #40,666
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:59pm Dec 19, 2013 3:59pm
This may come as a bold statement, but to short U/J outright at this moment is insane trading. If I did this a year ago, my mentor would take me to his office, yell at me, and put me on demo rest of month till i get my head right.

However, if it fits as a hedge as a model in your overall portfolio then so be it, but price action, pattern, nothing supports any argument to short atm.

Intraday 104.1 is clearly holding bid... and this is classic bull flag awaiting next leg up.

I don't look at any technical studies neither... only levels and price action. The notion of overbought imo can be smoothed due to consolidation, which is exactly what we got today... also look at price from 80 - 95 from late 2012 - early 2013... almost a 19% rally, week after week. Now put that in perspective from 97.5... a 19% rally put it in the north range > 110. However there are clear resistance area around 110.

I don't mean to be harsh, and i'm definitely not a guru nor expert, but shorting right now violate any technical principle that I know of.

best of luck
  • #40,667
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:11pm Dec 19, 2013 4:11pm
Remember boj tonight
  • #40,668
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:11pm Dec 19, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting Orientxpress
This may come as a bold statement, but to short U/J outright at this moment is insane trading. If I did this a year ago, my mentor would take me to his office, yell at me, and put me on demo rest of month till i get my head right. However, if it fits as a hedge as a model in your overall portfolio then so be it, but price action, pattern, nothing supports any argument to short atm. Intraday 104.1 is clearly holding bid... and this is classic bull flag awaiting next leg up. I don't look at any technical studies neither... only levels and price action....
Yeah everyone has to be thinking buy when looking at the chart. Daily inside bar, buying now with stop at yesterday's low is standard trade. Selling now, while we haven't make a new high (which makes a bull trap a possibility b/c false breakout). I think it would make sense to take a short at 105 depending on the 5 min price action if we get there.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,669
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:14pm Dec 19, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Orientxpress
This may come as a bold statement, but to short U/J outright at this moment is insane trading. If I did this a year ago, my mentor would take me to his office, yell at me, and put me on demo rest of month till i get my head right. However, if it fits as a hedge as a model in your overall portfolio then so be it, but price action, pattern, nothing supports any argument to short atm. Intraday 104.1 is clearly holding bid... and this is classic bull flag awaiting next leg up. I don't look at any technical studies neither... only levels and price action....


Indeed
  • #40,670
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:17pm Dec 19, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting Orientxpress
This may come as a bold statement, but to short U/J outright at this moment is insane trading. If I did this a year ago, my mentor would take me to his office, yell at me, and put me on demo rest of month till i get my head right. However, if it fits as a hedge as a model in your overall portfolio then so be it, but price action, pattern, nothing supports any argument to short atm. Intraday 104.1 is clearly holding bid... and this is classic bull flag awaiting next leg up.

so true. until the trend is broken, going against it have some logic only for hedging. trend is not broken here. if it is, I'll jump in the sell position without any hesitation. but now FED is tightening (a kind of) and BoJ doing the opposite and the price is at the highs of the year. "keep it simple" many times is the best strategy, not only at trading.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,671
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:21pm Dec 19, 2013 4:21pm
What happens at 105 is beyond my imagination, I'm sure if and when we get there, there will be winners for both long / short... but you gotta ask yourself, where's the easy money... is it the cute scalp short, the gutsy short, or the trend long... but for now, if there's any signs of failure, chart should point us to that direction.

In addition, while a breakout failure is entirely possible above 104.3, but traders should know it when they see it.. If we're adept enough to recognize what it looks like, until then... it's just an assumption, but to make that assumption a trade idea while atm, it's showing nothing but a healthy uptrend with even more power behind it after fomc... considering risk reward, feels unjustified for a short.
  • #40,672
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:24pm Dec 19, 2013 4:24pm
BOJ printing that money and USD getting stronger
  • #40,673
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:28pm Dec 19, 2013 4:28pm
i just sold my long in the 104.20s range. scaling in short for a move to 103.74 mid channel and the top of wave 4 tri consolidation.
  • #40,674
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:47pm Dec 19, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting falsify
i just sold my long in the 104.20s range. scaling in short for a move to 103.74 mid channel and the top of wave 4 tri consolidation.
agree.. need for pullback first before continue going higher
  • #40,675
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:51pm Dec 19, 2013 4:51pm
I don't know about that..
  • #40,676
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:04pm Dec 19, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting Rizmeister
I don't know about that..
just a side trade before the breakout. going to obey the trend if need be
  • #40,677
  • Dec 19, 2013 6:33pm Dec 19, 2013 6:33pm
Here we go
  • #40,678
  • Dec 19, 2013 6:46pm Dec 19, 2013 6:46pm
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  • #40,679
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:01am Dec 20, 2013 12:01am
Now i love the flow, London pre session are good start up!
Discussion is an exchange of knowledge;argument is an exchange of ignorance
  • #40,680
  • Dec 20, 2013 12:07am Dec 20, 2013 12:07am
love it when U/J trends... but man...it almost never gives a stable pull back. Whats up with that?


its like the Japanese use different algos or something, most other pairs do not trade this way.
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