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Attachments: NFP Strategy
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NFP Strategy

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jan 31, 2006 4:15pm Jan 31, 2006 4:15pm
Hi everyone,

I've been asked about the NFP Strategy I used last month, so I decided to post it again. Although it's an NFP strategy, it works great with FOMC too. I've used it today with success (I had to try it one last time before posting it). If you're new, please try this on demo first. If your trading platform is slow, then you're going to have a tough time.

Good Luck
Habeeb
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Stryker NFP strategy.doc   23 KB | 2,932 downloads
Keeping it Simple
Quoting habeeb
Hi everyone,

I've been asked about the NFP Strategy I used last month, so I decided to post it again. Although it's an NFP strategy, it works great with FOMC too. I've used it today with success (I had to try it one last time before posting it). If you're new, please try this on demo first. If your trading platform is slow, then you're going to have a tough time.

Good Luck
Habeeb
thanks habeeb.
Thanks..
Though playing news is not yet in my portfolio..
I know it will help my trading in the future...
Has anyone else tried this strategy? So far it has always worked for me. I've use it twice this week ... FOMC and NFP.
Keeping it Simple
I guess I used it...without knowing I used it.

Saw what happened on one of the news releases this week on GBP. And was determined to catch it on the next release (NFP.)

On the initial release of the NFP...it spiked up 50 pips, in the blink of an eye. Literally, if you blinked, you missed it. It did this for a few seconds (seemed like several minutes, but I wasn't paying attention to the time,) then it finally settled into a down move...that I had been looking for all week. Since I was fairly confident of a down move from the analysis during the week (false confidence or no, that's what I was seeing technically)...I was waiting for a down move. Thats what gave me the confidence to pull the trigger when it started settling into the move.

I saw the exact same thing happen a few days earlier.

So, I guess this strategy can work. I think it may help to have some technical data supporting a directional move. It definetly gives you confidence to pull the trigger if it does finally move in your direction. It did me.

It also takes some grande cohones.
In my opinion, this is closer to playing the rulette than actual trading. Not my cup of tea.
I prefer trading news to trading with techincals. I am somewhat new to trading fx markets and I would say my system is 80% fundamentals and 20% technicals. I also prefer to trade the yen.

On trading NFP and Fomc this week, I found that trading the fomc was far more challanging than the NFP. The fomc meeting, more specifically the statement, set the tone for this week's price movement. Before this week it was pretty much a done deal that the fomc was going to raise rates by 25 basis points. That was factored into prices on Friday of last week and Monday. Monday night traders began to speculate on the wording of the statement. A Hawkish statement would be dollar positive, while any other statement would be dollar bearish. Traders suspected a more neutral statement. I figured that as long as the statement left room for further rate changes, the carry traders would push the yen higher after rates were raised again.

I was long at 117.40ish with my stop at 116.88.

My trades stopped out a few minutes before the fomc statement. The price dropped to 116.60, I think was the low. I saw incredible volatility during this time and I decided to stop trading until that night.

fomc meeting was really tough to trade, and my intial thought that the carry trades would continue was correct. The yen rebounded over 118 where it is now.
Thought I'd bring this up again since it's that time of the month again. Lately I've been playing a more relaxed version of the strategy in the first post. Basically, it's the breakout of the first 5-minute candle/bar after the news release.

Good Luck
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
i usually play nfp, but this mo i might stay out. we have adp estimating +368K in june, a bunch of others saying +175K and the manufacturing sector reporting a hiring spree. today we have wall street revising their numbers upwards. now what happens if the data comes in at +300K? is it better than expected or worse than expected?

scary month IMHO...habeeb i like your tech analysis especially the upside down H&S this year. what do you thinK about tomorrow?

good luck to all trading tomorrow!


dice
Thanks habeeb, that's an interesting strategy, although for me trading news is just a bit to exciting... Perhaps I'm just to old for that.

Just a word of correction, there is no more "Green Span Speech" that you mention in your document. Alan Greenspan retired on January 31 this year. The new Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is Ben Bernanke. It's not as easy on the tongue as "Greenspan" but nonetheless he is the man.

It would be much better to call that speech "Federal Reserve Speech" or something like that, so that it doesn't have to be changed every time a new grandpa comes along.

I don't mean to be picky or "smart alex", I just know how these things tend to get into the language and all of a sudden any financial speech in the USA will be called "green span" and nobody will know where this came from. Just trying to keep the Queen's language as clean as I can. And I know it's a lost case.

Dane
Quoting dice
i usually play nfp, but this mo i might stay out. we have adp estimating +368K in june, a bunch of others saying +175K and the manufacturing sector reporting a hiring spree. today we have wall street revising their numbers upwards. now what happens if the data comes in at +300K? is it better than expected or worse than expected?

scary month IMHO...habeeb i like your tech analysis especially the upside down H&S this year. what do you thinK about tomorrow?

good luck to all trading tomorrow!


dice
Hi Dice,
I don't trade the news. I just follow the breakout of the first 5-minute bar. The numbers can be deceiving, and can make you blind to what is actually happenning.

This month has been good to me so far. I'm hoping to make the most of tomorrow's NFP. Hope we don't have any platform problems.

Can't really say what's going to happen tomorrow. NFP is a market breaker. It usually runs for 2 days. The Friday it's released and the Monday. I'm dollar bull tomorrow.

Good Luck to you too.

Take Care
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
Quoting great*dane
Thanks habeeb, that's an interesting strategy, although for me trading news is just a bit to exciting... Perhaps I'm just to old for that.

Just a word of correction, there is no more "Green Span Speech" that you mention in your document. Alan Greenspan retired on January 31 this year. The new Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is Ben Bernanke. It's not as easy on the tongue as "Greenspan" but nonetheless he is the man.

It would be much better to call that speech "Federal Reserve Speech" or something like that, so that it doesn't have to be changed every time a new grandpa comes along.

I don't mean to be picky or "smart alex", I just know how these things tend to get into the language and all of a sudden any financial speech in the USA will be called "green span" and nobody will know where this came from. Just trying to keep the Queen's language as clean as I can. And I know it's a lost case.

Dane
Hi Dane,
I've had that document since April 2005, and it was attached in my first post here on FF. It's someone else's strategy that he shared many moons ago. Thanx for the suggestion. I've made the changes, so that it'll be there the next time I post this strategy, probably in a few months time.

Take Care
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
Quoting habeeb
Hi Dane,
I've had that document since April 2005, and it was attached in my first post here on FF. It's someone else's strategy that he shared many moons ago. Thanx for the suggestion. I've made the changes, so that it'll be there the next time I post this strategy, probably in a few months time.

Take Care
Habeeb
I thought that could be the case... Either way, thanks again for the post. Maybe I'll try tomorrow.

Dane
Quoting great*dane
I thought that could be the case... Either way, thanks again for the post. Maybe I'll try tomorrow.

Dane
BTW, your avatar is hilarious. Is that your cat?

Dane
Quoting great*dane
BTW, your avatar is hilarious. Is that your cat?

Dane
nope ... not mine
Keeping it Simple
I tend to catch the tail of news action... I'll enter a position once it's moving and bail out with a gain of 10 pips or so to secure what I've made and to try to avoid the rebound at the bottom effect that happens. At that point I tend to avoid that pair for the rest of the day as it settles and sit back, content with my pips

Although... I generally prefer less risky moves, and have traded VERY few news events on my new, and most successful, demo account.
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jan 4, 2008 4:38am Jan 4, 2008 4:38am
Quoting habeeb
Hi everyone,

I've been asked about the NFP Strategy I used last month, so I decided to post it again. Although it's an NFP strategy, it works great with FOMC too. I've used it today with success (I had to try it one last time before posting it). If you're new, please try this on demo first. If your trading platform is slow, then you're going to have a tough time.

Good Luck
Habeeb
Hi Habeeb,

I follow your posting closly and like your style of looking for trade setup with Trend line break in 4 hour and get price confirmation in 60 min chart. Very effective method of getting into market. I like it.

Again with trading in 5 min candle during NFP, the key is high/low of the 1st 5min candle don't get taken out. Can you clearify take out by 2nd 5 min candle ? Does that mean, we need to wait for 2nd 5 min candle to complete ( to close) and decide whether the high/low of 1st candle is taken out or not ?

Another question is what if the 1st 5min candle's high/low is taken out, what is next ? No trade ?
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