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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,621
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:38am Dec 18, 2013 4:38am
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} ya on point City, below is my thoughts(which is very much in line with yours) to the thread as it has refused to upload to this quote by Editing,the attachment succeeded! {image}
Remember that if 3710/20 does not hold, then price will fall into major institutional demand at 1.3665/70 area and from there it should fly up.

However, if we get a bigger than expected taper, that area may not hold for too long as the demand will get chewed up. Even if the demand gets chewed up, it still does not mean it keeps going down. It may instead provide support without a bounce and consolidate more from there until the next technical move... which is probably "UP". Next level below there is 1.3520/50 area. If that is broken and held, then we're back in a bear market. Until then, we are still in "Buy the dips" mode.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,622
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:03am Dec 18, 2013 6:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Remember that if 3710/20 does not hold, then price will fall into major institutional demand at 1.3665/70 area and from there it should fly up. However, if we get a bigger than expected taper, that area may not hold for too long as the demand will get chewed up. Even if the demand gets chewed up, it still does not mean it keeps going down. It may instead provide support without a bounce and consolidate more from there until the next technical move... which is probably "UP". Next level below there is 1.3520/50 area. If that is broken and...
with the "taper,no taper" being the bone of contention,i cannot at the time second-guess the near term direction of E/U, and i like to think itz near term direction from tonight going forward is solely dependent on which side the Fed will tilt to,whether to the Euro or to the USD.

But making do with whatz on the charts,the daily chart is cooking a negative MACD divergence and the double top is also clearly annotated,beyond that; 1.37100 is powerful in the sense that it has held up price for 3&1/2 days from the last time it was tested....1.36660 didn`t put up such a hard fight when price approached it from underneath.

to add, if 1.38099 turns out to be the high of this up move so far,then 1.36660 may not be of great significance in acting up as a major support: i think so bcos,if we pull our fibs from the low of 7th Nov to the 1.38099 we will find that 1.36660 lies just 22pips below the 24% fib and we can agree that the 24% fib seldom holds support(particularly in an uptrend that struggled itz way up:if price rose to this height in a fast parabolic move,24% would be a demand area of serious consideration).

1.3520/50 area holds a far better appeal to demand but, before then is 1.36100 which i think is pivotal to a near term bear trend,why? bcos it posed resistance for a longer duration compared to 1.3520 and when price broke through it,it didn`t comeback lingering around.These are my humble thoughts though.
  • #71,623
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:27am Dec 18, 2013 6:27am
Hi guys, ok am picking new broker .
Right now IB and FXCM are leading candidates. So, I would like to ask you, if you have any experience you think you could share via PM, it will be appreciated.
Hope you are having green times.
Thx in advance,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,624
  • Dec 18, 2013 7:20am Dec 18, 2013 7:20am
Well my USD longs are versus CAD, from 1.0580, will hold those into FOMC and add if USD pulls back. Ultimately they will taper and I want a pullback to get more longs vs CAD and AUD.

Still have EURGBP shorts from 0.8450 that are in the green now, want to add there as well.


EURUSD remains my top target for 2014 in terms of likely big downside price moves, but we really need that easing program from the ECB.... whatever it will be. Then the declines will come in earnest.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,625
  • Dec 18, 2013 7:23am Dec 18, 2013 7:23am
Also been thinking about carry trades maybe getting trashed if there is a hawkish taper (minute chance i know)

this is the chart I have on my main screen.. EURJPY breaking the line to the downside would be big.
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,626
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:00am Dec 18, 2013 8:00am
two numbers ..(3916..and 3635) ...I am for 3635 .. shorted 3793( stop 3833 40 pips risk)...
  • #71,627
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:03am Dec 18, 2013 8:03am
My plan for this week...
Quoting chess king
daily chart.. I'll try to play this triangle.. thinking we have top.. {image}
  • #71,628
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:15am Dec 18, 2013 9:15am
T minus 3h 45m
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,629
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:21am Dec 18, 2013 11:21am
T minus 1h 40m for the rate statement

T minus 2h 10m for the press conference

Link to the press conference stream... http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,630
  • Dec 18, 2013 12:57pm Dec 18, 2013 12:57pm
Don't let the volatility if there's any deviate from your trade plan in next hour.

Good luck everyone.
  • #71,631
  • Edited 1:17pm Dec 18, 2013 1:05pm | Edited 1:17pm
May be time to start shorting EUR, lets see what he says in press conference.


Jumped into a super small starter short - 1.3795. Will continue to sell until 1.4100.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,632
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:32pm Dec 18, 2013 2:32pm
Is it just me or does anyone else here think that the last 2 weeks price has been behaving really irrationally ,I know its year end and people are closing long term positions for bookkeeping purposes,but it feels as if there is a massive price movement about to unfold, once liquidity levels get back to normal these irrational movements should correct themselves, I think the US$ given all the recent events and data , is massively undervalued, and it can be mainly seen against the Euro and Gold , I think 1.38 is a top that will not be revisited anytime too soon once liquidity returns, this IMO is a perfect long term short set up.

Edit , ok whilst typing that the Euro lost about 30 cents, we may even see this price correction unfold a lot sooner.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #71,633
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:43pm Dec 18, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting Fidza
Is it just me or does anyone else here think that the last 2 weeks price has been behaving really irrationally ,I know its year end and people are closing long term positions for bookkeeping purposes,but it feels as if there is a massive price movement about to unfold, once liquidity levels get back to normal these irrational movements should correct themselves, I think the US$ given all the recent events and data , is massively undervalued, and it can be mainly seen against the Euro and Gold , I think 1.38 is a top that will not be revisited anytime...
Yep. It seems to have been very irrational. It's not just you. However, in hindsight price has actually behaved quite well (barring today's spikes) according to EW theory. From the top, we have just completed (or will soon) an ABC correction downwards to form a larger degree B wave before a fresh rally to complete the larger degree C (around 1.4x).

I'm still sticking to my previous post about how it should play out... for now anyway.

See here >>>

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Remember that if 3710/20 does not hold, then price will fall into major institutional demand at 1.3665/70 area and from there it should fly up.

However, if we get a bigger than expected taper, that area may not hold for too long as the demand will get chewed up.

Even if the demand gets chewed up, it still does not mean it keeps going down. It may instead provide support without a bounce and consolidate more from there until the next technical move... which is probably "UP".

Next level below there is 1.3520/50 area. If that is broken and held, then we're back in a bear market.

Until then, we are still in "Buy the dips" mode.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,634
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:52pm Dec 18, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. It seems to have been very irrational. It's not just you. However, in hindsight price has actually behaved quite well (barring today's spikes) according to EW theory. From the top, we have just completed (or will soon) an ABC correction downwards to form a larger degree B wave before a fresh rally to complete the larger degree C (around 1.4x). I'm still sticking to my previous post about how it should play out... for now anyway. See here >>> {quote}
Wow, ok I feel much better now, jeez that move to 138 caught me offguard, a couple more pips to 138.25 and I would have been caught out by my sl, which is now been moved to well bellow BE , not too certain about it flying back up after 136.65, I think we going below 136 and most likely before the week is out.

Wow its just bounced as you said, excellent analysis .
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #71,635
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:55pm Dec 18, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting Fidza
{quote} Wow, ok I feel much better now, jeez that move to 138 caught me offguard, a couple more pips to 138.25 and I would have been caught out by my sl, which is now been moved to well bellow BE , not too certain about it flying back up after 136.65, I think we going below 136 and most likely before the week is out. Wow its just bounced as you said, excellent analysis .
Now let's see if we get a V shaped reversal similar to the ones we've been seeing for a while.

There is still 3500/3550 area if this area fails.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,636
  • Dec 18, 2013 3:02pm Dec 18, 2013 3:02pm
New York equity trading is now over.

I didn't want to take any risks on the Euro today, but I did jump in on a nice SP500 rally

Too bad I didn't jump in at the bottom, but positive pippage is always good.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,637
  • Dec 18, 2013 3:15pm Dec 18, 2013 3:15pm
Anybody remember that MS institutional strategy play which they said something like flipping from short to long EUR last week.

Boy... they are the perfect contrarian indicator!

Spot on!
  • #71,638
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:02pm Dec 18, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Orientxpress
Anybody remember that MS institutional strategy play which they said something like flipping from short to long EUR last week. Boy... they are the perfect contrarian indicator! Spot on!
I wouldn't rule the bulls out yet. Let's break and hold below 3600 first and then I think the bears will have a pretty good shot.
For now it's in no mans land.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,639
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:11pm Dec 18, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I wouldn't rule the bulls out yet. Let's break and hold below 3600 first and then I think the bears will have a pretty good shot. For now it's in no mans land.
This No mans land I like. Got in after the event from 3761 and 3738. Not trying to analyse too much just enjoying the ride. Comparing the aussie, kiwi, eur and sterling V the $ is more confusing than helpful. So I wont bother. I'll take my half and see what's happening in the morning.

Keep the good stuff coming PT. Enjoying it avery day.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #71,640
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:20pm Dec 18, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting chess king
two numbers ..(3916..and 3635) ...I am for 3635 .. shorted 3793( stop 3833 40 pips risk)...
closed + 110pips.
.I'll see if I can sell again tomorrow!?
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