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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,561
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:58pm Dec 17, 2013 6:58pm
Can anyone else feel the resistance. Oh baby!
  • #40,562
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:20pm Dec 17, 2013 7:20pm
103.15 next target
  • #40,563
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:43pm Dec 17, 2013 7:43pm
Ugh I don't like seeing so many bullish comments in here. This is worrying me now. Can you guys start shorting please.
  • #40,564
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:49pm Dec 17, 2013 7:49pm
FOMC is key here! just because its currently bullish doesn't mean that won't change at a whim tomorrow!
  • #40,565
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:53pm Dec 17, 2013 7:53pm
I am hoping the market has been factoring in the tapering/no tapering. I will stay long and just bring up my stop loss so I can prevent too much damage!
  • #40,566
  • Dec 17, 2013 8:07pm Dec 17, 2013 8:07pm
Reports of large vanilla options set for expiration today all throughout 102.50-104.0. The largest level of option hedging to take place at the 103.0 level similar to yesterday's.
more levels abt big option levels in these guys' post: Huge options to roll off Wednesday
  • #40,567
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:19pm Dec 17, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Reports of large vanilla options set for expiration today all throughout 102.50-104.0. The largest level of option hedging to take place at the 103.0 level similar to yesterday's. more levels abt big option levels in these guys' post: Huge options to roll off Wednesday
Could you provide some additional insight on what this could mean as in direction of UJ. I know these options expiries have a significant impact on price.
  • #40,568
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:32pm Dec 17, 2013 10:32pm
Had a nice long on pullback to LTL following the pop back above it.

Sandwiched in this triangle at the moment. Stay patient.
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Money Talks, Bullshit Walks
  • #40,569
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:35pm Dec 17, 2013 10:35pm
Gidday US/JPY

Come on YEN 104

Who cares if every body else loses all there money

Its all about me an my account
  • #40,570
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:58pm Dec 17, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting brinks
Doesn't anyone think a taper will be bad for dollar yen ? If s&p falls on taper then dollar yen will probably follow initially?
Taper is good for the US$. Taper reduces the amount of money in the system and makes the dollar stronger because supply is reduced.
The effect upon things like the S&P500 is probably negative, the feeling being that there will be a reduction in services activity.

The effect upon the Yen is difficult to gauge.
Tapering may make the Yen stronger initially because there may be a reduction of activity in the Tokyo stock exchange, and that will cause Abe and Kuroda to say something which will weaken the Yen again.

My feeling is that a small amount of taper is now priced-in. There will be whip-sawing as the MMs use it as an excuse to yank the markets.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,571
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:37pm Dec 17, 2013 11:37pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Taper is good for the US$. Taper reduces the amount of money in the system and makes the dollar stronger because supply is reduced. The effect upon things like the S&P500 is probably negative, the feeling being that there will be a reduction in services activity. The effect upon the Yen is difficult to gauge. Tapering may make the Yen stronger initially because there may be a reduction of activity in the Tokyo stock exchange, and that will cause Abe and Kuroda to say something which will weaken the Yen again. My feeling is that a small amount...

Thanks Exodus answered my question and thinking along the same lines
  • #40,572
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:42pm Dec 17, 2013 11:42pm
If taper has been factored in then there should be a great chance of buy rumor, sell the fact. I am pointing out to a short lasting sell off of UJ before it continues up. Correct me if I see things wrongly.
  • #40,573
  • Dec 18, 2013 12:02am Dec 18, 2013 12:02am
Nomura buying USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC !!!
I think ill be shorting this. How is Nomura going to realize their profits ? I am just not comfortable buying after the big boys have done so already, basically ill be buying at retail price. Theres going to be more sellers here than buyers, its just basic supply and demand. Moreover wherever the person with large orders say its where resistance is, that is where it is going to be regardless of technical analyses or whatever anybody wants. Goodluck guys !!
  • #40,574
  • Dec 18, 2013 3:38am Dec 18, 2013 3:38am
As we can see on the daily chart, the bullish momentum looks strong but once we zoom out to the weekly charts the momentum is clearly waning. Not to mention the strong Zonal resistance at 103.00 its a tough call depending if you are short term intra day trader or long term positional trader. Ill just rather sell price now and buy wholesale at the bottom. I guess you will be doing your pick on which way to go. goodluck and may the pips be with you
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  • #40,575
  • Dec 18, 2013 5:13am Dec 18, 2013 5:13am
Good day,

GU 4H

Might have merit all depends on the taper

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  • #40,576
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:06am Dec 18, 2013 8:06am
MACD is a crap indicator so this is purely for the purposes of entertainment:
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #40,577
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:36am Dec 18, 2013 8:36am
Looking at fx correlations I found something interesting: UJ is much more positively correlated with USD/CAD;EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD than with USD/CHF..and much bigger negative correlation with aussie and kiwi than positive correlation with swissy. So, does this means that UJ is in solid inverse correlation with commodities, much more than with euro and pound? Or in other way Yen = commodities? Also, UJ have big negative correlation with gold, too, just like all yen pairs. This is not written in the stone but I cannot ignore the numbers behind the correlations. This should mean that while the gold and commodities are in downtrend, no worry for UJ bulls. Anyway, UJ is in up trend and sometimes that's the only important thing when trading fx pair and I think it will be further in this condition no matter taper happens or not this year.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,578
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:37am Dec 18, 2013 8:37am
Quoting Boy Wonder
MACD is a crap indicator so this is purely for the purposes of entertainment: {image}
Name a indicator that is not a crap indicator. They all are useless.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #40,579
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:41am Dec 18, 2013 8:41am
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} Name a indicator that is not a crap indicator. They all are useless.
Here you go

  1. Post 70,904


and here

  1. Post 70,929

Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #40,580
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:04am Dec 18, 2013 9:04am
Quoting forexvegan
{quote} Name a indicator that is not a crap indicator. They all are useless.
Yup, thassright. I have had an epiphany recently and now realise that most price action is largely random. Not all, but most.
So all indicators, which are backwards looking, used on most price action, which is random, become backwards looking useless indicators on most price action.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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