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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,521
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:27pm Dec 17, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Rizmeister
This blows...it needs to hit 104 already!
If tapering is announced tomorrow it may well hit 104. How likely it is that will happen though is nothing short of betting. There is also a large option at 104 so price may gravitate that way anyways sometime before this new year.
  • #40,522
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:34pm Dec 17, 2013 12:34pm
looks like its going to drop a bit more
  • #40,523
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:35pm Dec 17, 2013 12:35pm
Yes then maybe a retest of higher levels?
  • #40,524
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:38pm Dec 17, 2013 12:38pm
Covered 2/3 Short from 102.98 at 102.51. Keep rest at original stop above 103.4.

Still looking for 101.5 - 102.

If it doesn't get there before FOMC, I will likely close out.
  • #40,525
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:43pm Dec 17, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting kweiss10
looks like its going to drop a bit more
The farther it drops the better the price we can establish a nice longer term long position. This next year should be an interesting one.
  • #40,526
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:52pm Dec 17, 2013 12:52pm
That is very true
  • #40,527
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:54pm Dec 17, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Orientxpress
Covered 2/3 Short from 102.98 at 102.51. Keep rest at original stop above 103.4. Still looking for 101.5 - 102. If it doesn't get there before FOMC, I will likely close out.
what makes you think it will go that low?
  • #40,528
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:00pm Dec 17, 2013 1:00pm
Looks like it is finding support around 102.5.
  • #40,529
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:01pm Dec 17, 2013 1:01pm
Fundamental wise data has been more positive out of the USA (though the market has been ignoring fundamentals). I don't see it going much lower to be honest.
  • #40,530
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:04pm Dec 17, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} what makes you think it will go that low?
I don't know if it's going to go that low, but it's my target based on levels, and r/r. Also b/c I have covered my risk, this trade overall will end up in profit nonetheless...

GL
  • #40,531
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:11pm Dec 17, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} If tapering is announced tomorrow it may well hit 104. How likely it is that will happen though is nothing short of betting. There is also a large option at 104 so price may gravitate that way anyways sometime before this new year.
That's why it so important to follow the trend and not fight it. Position yourself in a way that allows for bumps in the road etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...this-week.html
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,532
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:12pm Dec 17, 2013 1:12pm
Indeed...trend is your bestfriend
  • #40,533
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:17pm Dec 17, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Rizmeister
Indeed...trend is your bestfriend

+1
  • #40,534
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:30pm Dec 17, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} what makes you think it will go that low?
There are large stops reported in the 101.50 area. However, given the sentiment it may take something like the FOMC not tapering and longs covering to get us down there. It's hard to tell at this point so I'm staying out.
  • #40,535
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:37pm Dec 17, 2013 1:37pm
You guys think Taper is coming? Maybe it'll be bens parting gift, something people will remember him by. Opinions anyone?
  • #40,536
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:39pm Dec 17, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote}Position yourself in a way that allows for bumps in the road etc.
Very good point. A big mistake retail traders make is tight stops. Unless you know what you are doing, don't set stops that are too tight. Give your trade room to breathe, because there are market players out there gunning for stops.
  • #40,537
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:40pm Dec 17, 2013 1:40pm
too many noise/talking and nothing spectacular happened, UJ dropped to the accumulation zone for some 50 pips from the opening. not enough for any excitement.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,538
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:48pm Dec 17, 2013 1:48pm
From the first post, i spoke about the length of time taken by each wave. The table is re-shown here.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2cdva8j.jpg

We notice something familiar going on. Both the corrective waves 2 and 4, they have taken about the same number of weeks to form. Wave 2 took 26 weeks and wave 4 took 25 weeks. Since USDJPY is in wave 5 now, how much time is necessary to complete wave 5? Ideally, wave 5 should take less time than week 3. Week 3 took about 34 weeks. So wave 5 may be completed in less than 34 weeks. Projecting 34 weeks forward, wave 5 ends around 30th June 2014.

http://i43.tinypic.com/v4uikm.png

Now we got the maximum allotted time sorted out, lets turn to price. At what price would wave 5 terminate at? This is a trickier question. There is no way to know with 100% certainty to this question. At best, successfully traders make educated guesses. Remember that trading is a probability game, not a certainty game. To determine with some degree of accuracy where wave 5 might peak, we shall use fibonacci extensions. Lets see the chart with the fibonacci extensions drawn in.

http://i40.tinypic.com/20qc00x.png

Remember the guidelines of Elliott Wave principles in the first post, wave 3 must not be the shortest wave. So wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. There are 4 possible price projection targets for wave 5.


113% = 108.00
127% = 111.00
141% = 115.00
161.8% = 120.00

If you are already have long positions in USDJPY, i would highly recommend to close out some of your positions at these 4 prices.
  • #40,539
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:11pm Dec 17, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting ForexMGames
From the first post, i spoke about the length of time taken by each wave. The table is re-shown here. {image} We notice something familiar going on. Both the corrective waves 2 and 4, they have taken about the same number of weeks to form. Wave 2 took 26 weeks and wave 4 took 25 weeks. Since USDJPY is in wave 5 now, how much time is necessary to complete wave 5? Ideally, wave 5 should take less time than week 3. Week 3 took about 34 weeks. So wave 5 may be completed in less than 34 weeks. Projecting 34 weeks forward, wave 5 ends around 30th June...
Very nice! I love ew theory. I'm eyeing the 106 and 110 levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,540
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:13pm Dec 17, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting ForexMGames
From the first post, i spoke about the length of time taken by each wave. The table is re-shown here. {image} We notice something familiar going on. Both the corrective waves 2 and 4, they have taken about the same number of weeks to form. Wave 2 took 26 weeks and wave 4 took 25 weeks. Since USDJPY is in wave 5 now, how much time is necessary to complete wave 5? Ideally, wave 5 should take less time than week 3. Week 3 took about 34 weeks. So wave 5 may be completed in less than 34 weeks. Projecting 34 weeks forward, wave 5 ends around 30th June...
With respect, I think you're deluding yourself. Not only do you not have 100% certainty, you probably have something like 5% certainty. That's nothing against you or your methods; it's just that it's impossible to know where price is going.
I bet we could all draw on a chart where we think price is going to go over the next month, and none of us would get it right, perhaps with the exception of those who said, "I think price action will be contained within a band stretching from 100 to 106".
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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