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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,501
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:32pm Dec 16, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} People always say don't fight the FED and the same can be said for the BOJ. Even with an insignificant amount of tapering the trend will continue upward. The BOJ will continue to ease and as long as the economic data in the US is in line with what's fotcasted there will be no reason to fight the trend.
Yeah I agree with that but the BOJ has been for the most part unsuccessful in weakening their currency in the past. They finally seem to have it on the right track this time, but it has been 50 years of downtrend.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,502
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:04pm Dec 16, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I was sleeping when it traded there, but I'm not so sure we missed a great opportunity. I'm actually feeling just a bit bearish at the moment. I'm thinking U/J moves up to 103.15 here and then drops pretty quick. "
I'm learning bearish as well... at least short term... I don't like how 103.40 after a double top, breakout then immediately failed. To me this says... running the stops instead of real order flow above that area.

Atm, i really want to see a test of 101.5 - 102.

GL
  • #40,503
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:56pm Dec 16, 2013 6:56pm
A hawkish surprise Wednesday will take this pair lower IMO. Japanese wont be buying US fixed income if yields are rising faster than they are comfortable with.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,504
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:18pm Dec 16, 2013 7:18pm
i feel bearish about this too, but i am usually wrong so perhaps this is a buying opportunity. lol!
  • #40,505
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:11am Dec 17, 2013 1:11am
Quoting iamkjb
{quote} Great analysis. The daily is a concern at the moment, it has not advanced in the past two weeks and 104.00 is an issue. I just do not see any major move this side of Christmas.
Unless FOMC surprises the market. Other than that, no catalyst is seen to boost the pair before Xmas. Right now there's some big vanilla options at 103.0 which will keep price back and forth over that level until something changes Usd/Jpy's value.
  • #40,506
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:41am Dec 17, 2013 1:41am
I think, it's going to touch 102.50 by today...
  • #40,507
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:53am Dec 17, 2013 1:53am
from DTCC data and bank of america

Publicly available data shows there are $27,000,000,000 of USDJPY strikes expiring (103-103.90) over the next 5 business days. This figure, even if only half of this was open interest , is in the upper regions of the largest exposure market has seen in years. The markets expectations for a Fed Taper have been gradually increasing, but with that much exposure it would take a real outside surprise for USDJPY to be able to break itself away from the current 102.60/103.40 range – especially when one considers a large percentage of that $27,000,000,000 is centred around 103 and expires over the next 36hrs. BofAML’s APAC trading desk is flat in USDJPY here and anxiously awaits 2pm EST on Wednesday.

and before some smart ass says that options volumes are tiny and insignficant, consider that is notional outstanding and its 27 billion!!!

the amount of hedging that goes along with that (both gamma and delta) will be huge.
  • #40,508
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:02am Dec 17, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I wanted to pick some more up some more Uj when it dropped to 102.68... Went out and had some drinks and needless to say missed my opportunity.
Is there a reason why you did not put in an entry order at the price(s) you wanted?
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  • #40,509
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:08am Dec 17, 2013 2:08am
The market situation has screwed up my perspective of the UJ this year because of thing like buy the rumor and sell the fact. So putting that aside, what would no taper usually mean for UJ and the other case too?
  • #40,510
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:12am Dec 17, 2013 2:12am
Quoting zusch
{quote} ... As far as the rest of the week, either U/J will go up, or /ES will go up as I don't believe that correlation is intact anymore....
Excuse my asking but what is /ES ? thx
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,511
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:24am Dec 17, 2013 2:24am
Quoting kweiss10
The market situation has screwed up my perspective of the UJ this year because of thing like buy the rumor and sell the fact. So putting that aside, what would no taper usually mean for UJ and the other case too?
It is going to depend upon what BB says. Typically no taper would keep USD weaker and push the stock market, and some taper would do the opposite. However market perception is that some tapering will start soon and therefore IMHO no taper would be seen as a temporary thing. Also some taper is now priced-in and therefore market reaction to a reduction in bond buying would be less than if it had happened in May/June. The recent deal to extend the US govt. budget arguments out by 2 years has given the FED space to test the market with some tapering, it would be sensible to cut back the bond purchases but keep buying the CDOs - but what do I know...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,512
  • Dec 17, 2013 2:27am Dec 17, 2013 2:27am
Quoting JeremyWS
from DTCC data and bank of america Publicly available data shows there are $27,000,000,000 of USDJPY strikes expiring (103-103.90) over the next 5 business days. This figure, even if only half of this was open interest , is in the upper regions of the largest exposure market has seen in years. The markets expectations for a Fed Taper have been gradually increasing, but with that much exposure it would take a real outside surprise for USDJPY to be able to break itself away from the current 102.60/103.40 range – especially when one considers a large...
+1

Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Unless FOMC surprises the market. Other than that, no catalyst is seen to boost the pair before Xmas. Right now there's some big vanilla options at 103.0 which will keep price back and forth over that level until something changes Usd/Jpy's value.
  • #40,513
  • Dec 17, 2013 4:03am Dec 17, 2013 4:03am
Quoting JeremyWS
from DTCC data and bank of america Publicly available data shows there are $27,000,000,000 of USDJPY strikes expiring (103-103.90) over the next 5 business days. This figure, even if only half of this was open interest , is in the upper regions of the largest exposure market has seen in years. The markets expectations for a Fed Taper have been gradually increasing, but with that much exposure it would take a real outside surprise for USDJPY to be able to break itself away from the current 102.60/103.40 range – especially when one considers a large...
market usually does the opposite of what everyone is betting on. This gets rid of the people with big cash so that no one who can move prices is around to move prices except for those who want to control which way they want the prices to move in. Whether it be bearish or bullish this is usually the case.
  • #40,514
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:04am Dec 17, 2013 6:04am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Excuse my asking but what is /ES ? thx
/ES is the S&P emini futures contract.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,515
  • Dec 17, 2013 8:03am Dec 17, 2013 8:03am
Did you guys see that small spike in uj? That was us with our mini lots i suppose hehehe
  • #40,516
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:48am Dec 17, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Is there a reason why you did not put in an entry order at the price(s) you wanted?
I was being lazy, but I'll be picking some up right now.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,517
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:56am Dec 17, 2013 10:56am
This week could turn into a very nasty one for the dollar yen.

A crowded long trade ,year coming to a end, the weekly looking nasty although i know its ony tuesday.

FOMC tomorrow.A lot of tech traders are saying its a failed break at 103.72 and talking of 95 again.
  • #40,518
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:05am Dec 17, 2013 11:05am
Quoting brinks
This week could turn into a very nasty one for the dollar yen. A crowded long trade ,year coming to a end, the weekly looking nasty although i know its ony tuesday. FOMC tomorrow.A lot of tech traders are saying its a failed break at 103.72 and talking of 95 again.
Technical need fundamental catalyst to go hand in hand, this week we have fomc and also boj. Both key driver bur the fed will shows the imminent trend first.
  • #40,519
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:10pm Dec 17, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting brinks
This week could turn into a very nasty one for the dollar yen. A crowded long trade ,year coming to a end, the weekly looking nasty although i know its ony tuesday. FOMC tomorrow.A lot of tech traders are saying its a failed break at 103.72 and talking of 95 again.
Uhhh.... It hit 103.91 back on 12/12 and that was a new 52 week high. Support has also been holding.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,520
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:19pm Dec 17, 2013 12:19pm
This blows...it needs to hit 104 already!
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