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  • #863,881
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:20pm Dec 16, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting attila
{quote} I noticed this many times. The market makes up its mind before the news.. If the news is unexpected (in this case no taper), then it spikes up and then it comes back to where it started and continue with the initial direction. If the news is expected, it just continues.. Tomorrow we'll know more. As to your question, there's nothing between this level and 1.41 on the weekly chart.

Thanks guys for replies
Here is my thought process.Feds not doing anything is reasonable to expect considering our unemployment numbers are virtually the same and economy is same as well few green numbers on retail but during Christmas time its expected.
On fundamental side Feds know they can't print endlessly that goes against any sane economics so taper could be 15-20b reduction not dramatic but enough to satisfy tea parties.I have been fooled before on Feds talk of taper and still not convinced if they have the fortitude.
My dilemma is I am short on Euro and Long on Swissy and debating weather take the risk or close present orders as loss.
Tough position for those who are already short.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #863,882
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:22pm Dec 16, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting Davit
I have a question to ask guys.I know its hard but try. If Feds announce no taper which to me more likely since I come to believe Feds are just Wall Street tools then how far Euro will raise. I am sure past 38 but how far more. I am trying to make risk assessment for Weds. Thank you

1.3869
1.3940
1.4011
1.4082
1.4153

I have those numbers for upside. Just newbie numbers
  • #863,883
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:23pm Dec 16, 2013 4:23pm
Chart update E/U:

Monthly chart says that although E/U is still in an uptrend, so far it's hitting resistance at 1.3825. Upper Bollinger Band also lurking and flattening, suggesting a ranged market conditions from roughly 1.22 - 1.3850. So far the price has failed at making a higher high, but watch 1.3825 closely at the end of the month. Technically a close above should push it higher. However I'd expect a bit of a retrace before this happens, so possibly not this year, although nothing is 100% especially considering E/U bear resilience. The chart below shows monthly s/d zones.
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  • #863,884
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:26pm Dec 16, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Davit
I have a question to ask guys.I know its hard but try. If Feds announce no taper which to me more likely since I come to believe Feds are just Wall Street tools then how far Euro will raise. I am sure past 38 but how far more. I am trying to make risk assessment for Weds. Thank you
1.3980 and 1.4030 will be major resistances
  • #863,885
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:30pm Dec 16, 2013 4:30pm
E/U Weekly:

Last week ended up with inverted hammer. There is an immediate reactive supply that could prove tough to break. Looking for a bear candle this week, for various reasons - taper expectations, end of year profit taking... you name it. Prices also failed at making a higher high, so this is another clue that the resistance at 1.3825 visible on the Monthly chart is acting as a barrier to further rise. On this chart, there is another visible supply right at the resistance point, so that is another reason why it might be tough for this pair to go higher (marked with a green rectangle):
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  • #863,886
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:36pm Dec 16, 2013 4:36pm
Daily chart:

Marking off the weekly supply and going down a timeframe, it becomes clearer that there might be a double top forming. Trend looks a bit exhausted and with a monthly Bollinger band looming it's very likely that e/u is due for a fall from a technical point of view. I'll be looking for a break of 1.37 to the downside for a lower low, then position myself and look for a lower high after a drop. All this will be invalid if prices break and close above 1.3825, as this will mark a higher high:
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  • #863,887
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:39pm Dec 16, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks guys for replies Here is my thought process.Feds not doing anything is reasonable to expect considering our unemployment numbers are virtually the same and economy is same as well few green numbers on retail but during Christmas time its expected. On fundamental side Feds know they can't print endlessly that goes against any sane economics so taper could be 15-20b reduction not dramatic but enough to satisfy tea parties.I have been fooled before on Feds talk of taper and still not convinced if they have the fortitude. My dilemma is...
well buddy i don't know whats ur entry (or average) what are u risking on this trade (% wise) .if u feel like sharing it maybe can give u a better opinion.
Apart from this I think if u are comfortable with 3850 why not put ur stop there .
MMMYYYKKK
  • #863,888
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:40pm Dec 16, 2013 4:40pm
I share something short I read about accuracy by 2014. "the prospect is positive for the USD in 2014 due to the weakness of the currencies of emerging countries, this is the result of the deterioration of the emerging economies. The deterioration of the current account, the challenges of inflation and poor domestic debt dynamics are one of the symptoms of the decline in the economy of emerging countries. With what Morgan Stanley recommends is long on the dollar against the currencies of emerging countries."
  • #863,889
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:43pm Dec 16, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks guys for replies Here is my thought process.Feds not doing anything is reasonable to expect considering our unemployment numbers are virtually the same and economy is same as well few green numbers on retail but during Christmas time its expected. On fundamental side Feds know they can't print endlessly that goes against any sane economics so taper could be 15-20b reduction not dramatic but enough to satisfy tea parties.I have been fooled before on Feds talk of taper and still not convinced if they have the fortitude. My dilemma is...
Isn't this Ben's last fomc?.. Not sure if that matters, but here's my thinking.. If they taper even 10B.. It's like being pregnant or a little pregnant.. I think any tapering would be read by the markets as the end of the party because from that point on they can taper at any time as much as they want. It would not be a taboo anymore.
  • #863,890
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:49pm Dec 16, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting attila
{quote} Isn't this Ben's last fomc?.. Not sure if that matters, but here's my thinking.. If they taper even 10B.. It's like being pregnant or a little pregnant.. I think any tapering would be read by the markets as the end of the party because from that point on they can taper at any time as much as they want. It would not be a taboo anymore.
Agreed

BTW guys what are ur thoughts on AUD/USD ??? . this euro thing havnt given much from a week now thinking about trading aussi for the next few hours.
MMMYYYKKK
  • #863,891
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:53pm Dec 16, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting myk
BTW guys what are ur thoughts on AUD/USD ??? . this euro thing havnt given much from a week now thinking about trading aussi for the next few hours.
For the last couple days it's been capped under .89685 and expecting more downside but I personally wouldn't short from here and untradeable due to tight range and will suck all the energy watching it.

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  • #863,892
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:58pm Dec 16, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Kanzler .... Kanzler ...
Vachus .... Vachus ...
  • #863,893
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:59pm Dec 16, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} For the last couple days it's been capped under .89685 and expecting more downside but I personally wouldn't short from here and untradeable due to tight range and will suck all the energy watching it. {image}
Was thinking same but if u notice it on 5 min charts the moves have been smooth and rhythmic (around 50 pips each).
Atleast would have been a better range then eur/usd provided .
MMMYYYKKK
  • #863,894
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:01pm Dec 16, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting jabow
One thing I've notice after reading posts in the EURUSD forums is allot of posters here think of themselves as intelligent people. Yet many post contain profanity so often associated with low levels of intelligence. From Wikipeda "Profanity (also called bad language, strong language, foul language, swearing or cursing) is a subset of a language's lexicon that is generally considered in society to be strongly impolite or offensive."
تراجع this is trading forum not english schoolemotions run high all the time, if dont like strong emotions click ignore
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #863,895
  • Edited 7:14pm Dec 16, 2013 5:03pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting myk
{quote} Was thinking same but if u notice it on 5 min charts the moves have been smooth and rhythmic (around 50 pips each). Atleast would have been a better range then eur/usd provided .
Indeed and positioning to build safe margin distance prior to below later, might get a big chunk out of it.

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  • #863,896
  • Edited 5:21pm Dec 16, 2013 5:06pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting attila
{quote} Isn't this Ben's last fomc?.. Not sure if that matters, but here's my thinking.. If they taper even 10B.. It's like being pregnant or a little pregnant.. I think any tapering would be read by the markets as the end of the party because from that point on they can taper at any time as much as they want. It would not be a taboo anymore.
Attila ... Attila ... Attila

R u kidding me ?

You know when was the last chance to start tapering, even with small quantity - it was September. Even Mohamed El Rian of Pimco said at the time , he doesn't understand why they didn't do it. You know why ? Because the stock market would have corrected and seasonal buyers got in on the dip. This is Christmas , not to say that the feds half of stuff will be or already on vacations leave. The congress with the new partisan deal is packing for iceberg time. No one will be there ! Yet, you are expecting them to wind down or even touch one of the most controversial monetary policy of all times .... Just because some silly people in Goldman sachs and Citibank can't take it anymore !

* There was an article on the Guardian today, where the journalist make the argument for tapering " Just do it ". I really don't wish to live in the years when montary policy is based on Nike ads.

** Ben Berenki for a lot of economists & the feds is a hero. This last meeting is where he & his fellow feds celeberate saving USA & the golbel economy from a 1930s depression. The gravity and the distance of how far we went through is not only to be admired but respected. This is what next FOMC will be about, crowning the jewel of the man & his feds's fellow who done a remarkable job.. who doesn't get that, i think he is on the wrong page.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,897
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:07pm Dec 16, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Indeed and positioning to build save margin distance prior to below later, might get a big chunk out of it. {image}
yup thats what was thinking will try to play with small longs i guess whatever i can get from it can use as stop for euro lol haha
been doing it since last Tuesday n it hasn't taken me anywhere
MMMYYYKKK
  • #863,898
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting myk
{quote} yup thats what was thinking will try to play with small longs i guess whatever i can get from it can use as stop for euro lol haha been doing it since last Tuesday n it hasn't taken me anywhere
Probably it's time to browse charts for EUR/XXX crosses to find weekly/monthly S/R levels. E/U is too slow might cause hallucination.
  • #863,899
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:15pm Dec 16, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Probably it's time to browse charts for EUR/XXX crosses to find weekly/monthly S/R levels. E/U is too slow might cause hallucination.
Been doing it since the weekend, now i have so much idle data i might doze off in this chair lol
MMMYYYKKK
  • #863,900
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:15pm Dec 16, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting eqshack
We are sitting near really strong resistance no words needed. {image}

yes, yesterday they peek on 112, today too. more upside at 114-115 can not be ruled out, and that will drag usdx lower coz composition of usdx is euro majority.
when it hits 115 and above, it may drag usdx to 75 ...it's not allowed
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