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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #71,581
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:10am Dec 16, 2013 3:10am
Today's EZ PMI report in detail.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,582
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:25am Dec 16, 2013 3:25am
Thodie, you are quite right about this eur/usd looking toppy for now. But any blind man can see that all the aussie troubles with every currency point to getting it both ways....just be long the eur/aud and forget the usd for now. its the easiest play the banks every gave us all year. Why do you guys insist on using the usd which is now overdue for a massive rally instead of playing what is weak and getting weaker? You still get the EUR!!
  • #71,583
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:31am Dec 16, 2013 3:31am
Quoting Silat50
Thodie, you are quite right about this eur/usd looking toppy for now. But any blind man can see that all the aussie troubles with every currency point to getting it both ways....just be long the eur/aud and forget the usd for now. its the easiest play the banks every gave us all year. Why do you guys insist on using the usd which is now overdue for a massive rally instead of playing what is weak and getting weaker? You still get the EUR!!
Excellent point Silat.
I do intend on riding that E/A wave and I am waiting for a nice entry against solid support, because it is an expensive swap to carry. If it leaves without me, so be it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,584
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:57am Dec 16, 2013 3:57am
hello silat,

long time no see, thanks for comment! I´ll consider to enter after a little pullback, looks like i missed the train today!
just do it
  • #71,585
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:12am Dec 16, 2013 4:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Very good write up indeed. You should start a thread.
Thanks Well, thats definitely not in the plans.. Lately I'm trying to limit my time spent in front of PC, and chatter in forums falls outside of priorities list
In last couple of years this 12-14 hour sitting every day weaken my heart very notably (despite irregular, but quite often sports..). So, I'm going two times a day in a gym now and made my table higher, that would be comfortable to do trading activities while standing
69
  • #71,586
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:14am Dec 16, 2013 4:14am
Quoting Silat50
Thodie, you are quite right about this eur/usd looking toppy for now. But any blind man can see that all the aussie troubles with every currency point to getting it both ways....just be long the eur/aud and forget the usd for now. its the easiest play the banks every gave us all year. Why do you guys insist on using the usd which is now overdue for a massive rally instead of playing what is weak and getting weaker? You still get the EUR!!

My view exactly. Lawman forever..lol
  • #71,587
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:42am Dec 16, 2013 4:42am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Thanks Well, thats definitely not in the plans.. Lately I'm trying to limit my time spent in front of PC, and chatter in forums falls outside of priorities list In last couple of years this 12-14 hour sitting every day weaken my heart very notably (despite irregular, but quite often sports..). So, I'm going two times a day in a gym now and made my table higher, that would be comfortable to do trading activities while standing
Excellent. Keep it up mate. I power walk a steep hill every day. 3 miles (5km) round trip. It keeps the mind sharp also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,588
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:46am Dec 16, 2013 4:46am
Quoting Silat50
Thodie, you are quite right about this eur/usd looking toppy for now. But any blind man can see that all the aussie troubles with every currency point to getting it both ways....just be long the eur/aud and forget the usd for now. its the easiest play the banks every gave us all year. Why do you guys insist on using the usd which is now overdue for a massive rally instead of playing what is weak and getting weaker? You still get the EUR!!
By the way Silat... Nothing wrong with a few intraday trades to keep the bread and butter on the table
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,589
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:28am Dec 16, 2013 7:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Interesting. Similar thoughts here... E/U Daily Chart For the upside, my final target is the 161.8% fibo extension of the A wave (1.3859) However 141% extension (1.3800) has held price so far so we may already have a top even though it may also be retested. On the downside I have significant support/demand zone starting at 1.3666 as long as today's 1.3710 support gives way. Below there I have two more support levels of 1.3605 and the final one at 1.3520. If 1.3520 fails to hold price and then provides strong resistance, it confirms that...
1.41 is quite feasible & if it sticks to the same time frame as the last 2 waves it should reach there on Boxing day.???????
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Money Makes Money
  • #71,590
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:06am Dec 16, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Silat50
Thodie, you are quite right about this eur/usd looking toppy for now. But any blind man can see that all the aussie troubles with every currency point to getting it both ways....just be long the eur/aud and forget the usd for now. its the easiest play the banks every gave us all year. Why do you guys insist on using the usd which is now overdue for a massive rally instead of playing what is weak and getting weaker? You still get the EUR!!
while an uptrend is clearly intact in the EUR/AUD, and Stevens just fanned the flame burning down the oz in saying he`ll like to see the oz around 0.85000. I yet have technical reasons to think we have but only 250-300pips to the upside.then a breather.
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  • #71,591
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:43am Dec 16, 2013 8:43am
The Week Ahead And Beyond - Marc Chandler
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1899...for_2_14&ifp=0
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,592
  • Dec 16, 2013 9:20am Dec 16, 2013 9:20am
short U/J, open for surprises
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #71,593
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:00am Dec 16, 2013 10:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} By the way Silat... Nothing wrong with a few intraday trades to keep the bread and butter on the table {image}
Nice trade. I trailed my EUR to 55. Got in office just now, noticed i'm flat.
  • #71,594
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:07am Dec 16, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} while an uptrend is clearly intact in the EUR/AUD, and Stevens just fanned the flame burning down the oz in saying he`ll like to see the oz around 0.85000. I yet have technical reasons to think we have but only 250-300pips to the upside.then a breather. {image}
I agree w/ ya. Wouldn't hurt to try for a tight scalp short against 1.55. If fails, could always try again at 50% fib.

But, it's still a bit early imo.

Wouldn't want to get burned chasing a top... best to wait and see a reversal pattern.
  • #71,595
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:11am Dec 16, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Orientxpress
{quote} Nice trade. I trailed my EUR to 55. Got in office just now, noticed i'm flat.
I got out at 3793 on O/B signal.
Tempted to load again but it's late in the trading day.
I'll try again tomorrow.
Closed my day with a whopping +43, +35 & +28 on E/U and +10 handles on SP500 for a total of +116 pips.
No losses to subtract today. That's rare
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,596
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:31am Dec 16, 2013 11:31am
EFX: Morgan Stanley Reversed To EUR/USD longs S/T; Hold Shorts M/T

lol...

They don't even try to disguise their intent.

Such arrogance and prowess. MS must think we all have amnesia... forgetting their bearish tone weeks and upon weeks ago.
  • #71,597
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:56am Dec 16, 2013 11:56am
Quoting Orientxpress
{quote} I agree w/ ya. Wouldn't hurt to try for a tight scalp short against 1.55. If fails, could always try again at 50% fib. But, it's still a bit early imo. Wouldn't want to get burned chasing a top... best to wait and see a reversal pattern.
well,how ya trade in the 1.5500 to 1.5650 horizon will depend on a few factors the most significant of them being the underlying market sentiment and your risk appetite(which defines you and seems to be a very important consideration)...if there be some kind of fundamental distortion to this picture as price gets into that area,it may be necessary to switch on the wait-and-see button.

But i do seriously think since we`ve not been there for some couple of years,the very first approach will be very reactive with bulls scaling down,bears jumping on and the third party taking 100% profit and closing out their longs altogether; these should culminate into a sizable pullback.
but if bullish momentum increases instead of waning as we approach that range,then someone somewhere(or a group of very wild bulls) might be throwing in the spanner into the short idea.And like you think,the 50% fib will be the next big cynosure for a short intention.
  • #71,598
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:49pm Dec 16, 2013 1:49pm
If Only It Were the 1930s
I’ve mentioned before that at this point Europe is actually doing worse in the aftermath of the 2007 crisis than it did in the Great Depression. Nick Crafts documents this at greater length, and adds a provocative analysis of debt dynamics.
First, his chart:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...n1-blog480.png
He also notes that while many European countries had lower debt ratios in the 30s than they do today, the UK actually had a substantially higher ratio — and even more so after World War II. How did it deal with this debt? Not through the recipe currently being imposed in Europe, of fiscal austerity and internal devaluation. Instead, the UK relied on a cheap-money policy that produced low interest rates and moderate inflation — “financial repression” — with the central bank “subservient” not just to the government, but to government debt-management policies.
In an earlier paper Crafts argued, in effect, that high government debt levels may even have been a sort of advantage, in that they made it possible to credibly commit to inflationary policies. More than a decade ago Gauti Eggertsson made a similar argument for Japan in the 1930s.
So how does the current position of Europe fit into all this? Not well. The central bank isn’t subservient, least of all to debt-management concerns, and the ideology of austerity rules. The result is a continuing slump — despite occasional quarters of growth — and a very bleak outlook.
  • #71,599
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:09pm Dec 16, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting chess king
If Only It Were the 1930s I’ve mentioned before that at this point Europe is actually doing worse in the aftermath of the 2007 crisis than it did in the Great Depression. Nick Crafts documents this at greater length, and adds a provocative analysis of debt dynamics. First, his chart: {image} He also notes that while many European countries had lower debt ratios in the 30s than they do today, the UK actually had a substantially higher ratio — and even more so after World War II....
Nice write up.

Given enough time and a good reason for doing so, I could probably come up with scores of historical comparisons which show that the Eurozone is heading in the opposite direction of growth stimulating policies. However, the fact remains that it is market sentiment that counts for us and as long as the lemmings are buying into the fantasy that the Eurozone will have lots to offer in the coming decade, then that's the trade to take for now. When they all finally have that "Holy F**k" moment and turn tail, we follow

Not a good idea to run against a stampede.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,600
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:28pm Dec 16, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Nice write up. Given enough time and a good reason for doing so, I could probably come up with scores of historical comparisons which show that the Eurozone is heading in the opposite direction of growth stimulating policies. However, the fact remains that it is market sentiment that counts for us and as long as the lemmings are buying into the fantasy that the Eurozone will have lots to offer in the coming decade, then that's the trade to take for now. When they all finally have that "Holy F**k" moment and turn tail, we follow Not a...

I'm curious how far they can endure this deflation..
in many countries of the EZ..
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