Patterns and system cycles
Maybe someone will find this interesting. It's end of week; I will entertain you with some observations about systems and cycles. You may need more coffee to go through this…..
I usually start watching markets after FO, and never trade before LO and this has kept me safe for quite a long time. However I have noticed that recently I am missing quite a few good trades as the move starts at FO and is rarely reversed at LO. Well, apart from today, where there were some good re-entry points at least.
I should wake up earlier perhaps (by the way, what time do you start Islander?), but one never knows if this change in pattern is going to be permanent or not.
It is a typical dilemma for all systems. Each system goes through cycles and sometimes seems that it can't give a single wrong signal and sometimes it seems to be broken only to resume a few days or weeks later (hey, just for the record, I am not implying that Genesis is broken in any shape or form!) .
For instance, I do not seem to be able to make any money on my DAX trading recently, which was one my star performers until some time ago. EU could be another example.
This is another reason why discipline, risk and money management (and, if you can, diversification) is so vital to keep you afloat during these cycles.
This is also why itchy feet (or minds!) people like RJ try to devise new ways to keep the pips coming in different market conditions, by looking at different time frames, for instance, and giving us another great system in the process…..
Another way could be to keep track of other pairs or markets even if one does not trade them. This is what I did with Oil, for instance. I did not trade it for ages, but I kept looking and testing it in the background, so that, if the time comes for some diversification, I know how it behaves….well, with the warnings above.
Where DAX is currently threading water, Oil has given some good trades this week.
I should add that this should apply to more experienced and disciplined traders, though, as it is easy to get lost juggling too many balls.
Enough lecturing and patronising. I am off to pre-Xmas socialising (drinks and gossip).
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Maybe someone will find this interesting. It's end of week; I will entertain you with some observations about systems and cycles. You may need more coffee to go through this…..
I usually start watching markets after FO, and never trade before LO and this has kept me safe for quite a long time. However I have noticed that recently I am missing quite a few good trades as the move starts at FO and is rarely reversed at LO. Well, apart from today, where there were some good re-entry points at least.
I should wake up earlier perhaps (by the way, what time do you start Islander?), but one never knows if this change in pattern is going to be permanent or not.
It is a typical dilemma for all systems. Each system goes through cycles and sometimes seems that it can't give a single wrong signal and sometimes it seems to be broken only to resume a few days or weeks later (hey, just for the record, I am not implying that Genesis is broken in any shape or form!) .
For instance, I do not seem to be able to make any money on my DAX trading recently, which was one my star performers until some time ago. EU could be another example.
This is another reason why discipline, risk and money management (and, if you can, diversification) is so vital to keep you afloat during these cycles.
This is also why itchy feet (or minds!) people like RJ try to devise new ways to keep the pips coming in different market conditions, by looking at different time frames, for instance, and giving us another great system in the process…..
Another way could be to keep track of other pairs or markets even if one does not trade them. This is what I did with Oil, for instance. I did not trade it for ages, but I kept looking and testing it in the background, so that, if the time comes for some diversification, I know how it behaves….well, with the warnings above.
Where DAX is currently threading water, Oil has given some good trades this week.
I should add that this should apply to more experienced and disciplined traders, though, as it is easy to get lost juggling too many balls.
Enough lecturing and patronising. I am off to pre-Xmas socialising (drinks and gossip).
Have a nice weekend everyone.
