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  • #863,481
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:05pm Dec 13, 2013 4:05pm
Implied vols are getting excited...

http://macrocredit.blogspot.co.uk/20...lied-vols.html

v. large moves expected over the FOMC next wednesday from the FX markets options traders
  • #863,482
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:09pm Dec 13, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting takytto
{quote} 1,45030 eurusd will sing
You do understand that if the S&P sell off , euro will also also suffer the selling pressure ... so you will be taking a loss on one of the two trades! Either the S&P go down and drag the euro or up and also drag the euro. The correctional between the two of them rarely broke and at max lagged.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,483
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:15pm Dec 13, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} You do understand that if the S&P sell off , euro will also also suffer the selling pressure ... so you will be taking a loss on one of the two trades! Either the S&P go down and drag the euro or up and also drag the euro. The correctional between the two of them rarely broke and at max lagged.
yes you're right. taking into account that the eurousd having a stop loss at 1.26600 can sleep rested he still has room to go i come let's wait what will happen to the week
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  • #863,484
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:17pm Dec 13, 2013 4:17pm
please tell me a good broker with the ability to open a PAMM.
  • #863,485
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:21pm Dec 13, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting AlbertR
please tell me a good broker with the ability to open a PAMM.
try fibogroup.com
  • #863,486
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:29pm Dec 13, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting Hotkqash
{quote} try fibogroup.com
thank you
  • #863,487
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:32pm Dec 13, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Implied vols are getting excited... http://macrocredit.blogspot.co.uk/20...lied-vols.html v. large moves expected over the FOMC next wednesday from the FX markets options traders
Jermey,

What is the current trend in the EONIA & Libor rates for the past three weeks ... i was checking the charts lately, and after the rate cut it dipped but went even higher. Am i correct in assuming that signs of credit freeze started to appear on the banking daily operation ?! If you have something to add on this, i would really appreciate it.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,488
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:40pm Dec 13, 2013 4:40pm
Yes, very short term rates have been rising and its starting to catch some attention finally, surprising after a rate cut, but its due to falling Liquidity levels (purple) and that forces rates higher. The rate cut attempted to boost liquidity and failed thats why I still expect QE from the ECB to lower real rates (lower nominal ones and increase inflation)

Also the EURIBORs are interesting, the 3M fixed at 0.282 which is higher than the base rate for the eurozone which means there are some problems with banks, its back to levels seen in 2011 which is concerning somewhat
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  • #863,489
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:41pm Dec 13, 2013 4:41pm
this and what will happen to the week in mini sp500
and I've been waiting for this type of candle in the daily chart.
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  • #863,490
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:52pm Dec 13, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Yes, very short term rates have been rising and its starting to catch some attention finally, surprising after a rate cut, but its due to falling Liquidity levels (purple) and that forces rates higher. The rate cut attempted to boost liquidity and failed thats why I still expect QE from the ECB to lower real rates (lower nominal ones and increase inflation) Also the EURIBORs are interesting, the 3M fixed at 0.282 which is higher than the base rate for the eurozone which means there are some problems with banks, its back to levels seen in...
The chart you just posted has two interest rate cuts , and liquidity keeps on dropping ... ( OMG ) While you have people running around screaming negative rates negative rates. Maybe with negative rates, liquidity can finally diminish to zero
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,491
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:01pm Dec 13, 2013 5:01pm
Short on 1.3716, such a retarded move. As soon as I open the position it just longs to 1.3755. SL at 1.3840, lets see if i can make some money, cause I dont even saw green numbers on this trade..
  • #863,492
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:02pm Dec 13, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} The chart you just posted has two interest rate cuts , and liquidity keeps on dropping ... ( OMG ) While you have people running around screaming negative rates negative rates. Maybe with negative rates, liquidity can finally diminish to zero
Real rates have been negative for some time, the ECB however want them back at the lows - note how they are nearly at 0 even after rate cuts!
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  • #863,493
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:27pm Dec 13, 2013 5:27pm
Weekly says down... daily and below say up to me.
  • #863,494
  • Edited 6:36pm Dec 13, 2013 6:23pm | Edited 6:36pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Rollover spread is not accurate when they do the rebalancing or whatever it called. {image}
This is for all those who leave their trade open with SL over the weekend
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #863,495
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:34pm Dec 13, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} This is for all those who leave their trade open with SL over the weekend
Not all but certain brokers have crazy spread spike during rollover.

For fresh entries I always remove stops during rollover or set few hundred pips away.
  • #863,496
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:39pm Dec 13, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} This is for all those who leave their trade open with SL over the weekend Anybody with their SL within that range would be stopped out
you in profit 40 pips, sl 30 pips. someone else got stop hit and price jumped to your sl and your sl got hit later. profit turned to loss in an eye blink.

one stop getting hit can trigger another stop getting hit, in turn trigger another wider stop getting hit, a chain reaction. that is why stops getting hit produces spikes, because stops are filled by market orders and can be filled with any price available (sitting limit orders). if there are no sitting limit orders there, the spikes can be huge.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #863,497
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:51pm Dec 13, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No. Price move not spread spike.
what is spread? spread is the closest price distance between available limit offers and limit bids. In order for price to move all the available limit bids and offers have to be taken out.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #863,498
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:24pm Dec 13, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{image} Look at the spread
Well, trading should be always treated as a business and it's entirely up to you to choose right business partners to suit your best interest.
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  • #863,499
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:47pm Dec 13, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Harmonic patterns seem to look perfect in hindsight, but are very open to interpretation, in the same way that constellations look like their pictures to some... As far as relying on patterns, Supply and Demand is something that I have come to appreciate for assisting in both trend recognition and in watching for triggering in trend. The market works by it's own clock, I don't try to dictate when the train will get to the station as much as I am concerned on being at the right station. For example: {quote} Granted, I missed by 7 pips, but...
Make no mistakes tho, not all harmonic patterns are created equal to be profitable 100%.....But the level of success is much guaranteed knowing that in advance what you put in and what you can get out of it...Before you get into the trade, you evaluate your risk and reward ratios, and if you are looking at 1:2 or 1: 3 risk/reward, you go all in....

What i have come to realize, whenever you are at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) if your first target (38.2% Fib Line) only hit, there's a good reason to believe that the reversal trend is not going to be strong, so you must be flexible to close out the other half positions on break-even and follow the initial direction....By the way, there are other factors to verify if the trend is solid or not like the overbought/oversold conditions you mentioned....

I forgot to touch on this, I understood that you were serious but I didn't want your seriousness to overshadow the purpose of this forum....We all are providing different ideas here, and it's very difficult for one to learn from one another because at the end of the day, you are going to be the one to make the
final call to push the buy/or sell button. No one is to blame!!!!

Food for thought: "Inequality of OUTCOME can only be accepted when there's an equality of OPPORTUNITY."
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,500
  • Dec 13, 2013 8:07pm Dec 13, 2013 8:07pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} That's the most celebrated cliche of all times ... i wish one day to find someone able to tell , which trade is a loss and which isn't!
Allow me to elaborate the cliche for a minute here, and I am hoping after you done reading my thought,
you will have a different perspective about it. I bet you will mate. Haha!

Let's just say that you have done all your analysis correct, and you have a good probability of the
direction of the Market in the next 2 or 3 days... You are getting excited to jump on board and waiting
for the trigger either from Stochastics / MACD crossover /Moving Average Crossover or through
Fibonacci Retracement.

Whatever the case might be, you know exactly where you want to get in and where you want to get out.

Now, just because your analysis is good doesn't mean this trade is going to be a winner and that's why most
people use stop-Losses...

Instead of going in with one full position, you take two half ( 1/2) positions....On the first position, you place
your Profit target and on the other half, you let that area empty so that you can trailing stop it...

In other words, once your first half position profit target HIT, you are allowed to play with house money until you
get stopped out on the other half.....

Very simple and easy method, but you just have to be confident on your own strategy....If it's a loser, you will know
it...

I hope that helps you and the others that were skeptical about the cliche concept.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
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