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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,481
  • Dec 13, 2013 11:13am Dec 13, 2013 11:13am
I'm long at 103. I think it'll restest 103.60 and make it's decision there whether it want's to attempt 104 again or dive below 103.
  • #40,482
  • Dec 13, 2013 11:24am Dec 13, 2013 11:24am
You might be right
  • #40,483
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:31pm Dec 13, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting bikov
Added small longs at UJ, AJ and NJ. It's Friday and not a perfect time for trading but when I looked at historical cahrts at AJ&NJ i just couldn't resist. I mean, there were levels at 300 and now NJ is at 85 ? It's multi-year downtrend at kiwi yen but any correction to 100 is nothing in historical terms and much in terms of my account . Hm, I've just made a personal record time of holding a position, have some longs at UJ from November 12 so I hope it is worth holding them further.
400 pips ! ACE!

The current channel suggests that price will not go below 102.50.
I prefer not to be too specific because that always causes egg-on-face...
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,484
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:26pm Dec 13, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} 400 pips ! ACE! The current channel suggests that price will not go below 102.50. I prefer not to be too specific because that always causes egg-on-face...

Yeah ace, but I've lost some pips selling cable and fiber which was a huge mistake and took away some % from my account. Fortunately UJ saved the day with more pips earned than lost from eu and gu but if I did nothing but sit and counting earned pips at UJ I would have much bigger gain. If I followed the same rules from UJ at EU&GU and that is: the trend is your pal/friend/buddy.. than the victory would be complete. Sometimes the trend is so obvious making HH and HL that no indicator is needed to help you trading. If UJ goes much more higher, I'll forget about this mistake. Time to go now, a couple of beers are waiting for me to wash away the pain and celebrate the gain (is this poetry or what ) and happy weekend to all, many pips next week.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,485
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:02pm Dec 13, 2013 4:02pm
USDJPY closed the week green, but below the previous week high for the first time in 7 weeks.

On Monday next week, I'll be watching the 103.40 level for some sellers to step in, and 103 for buyers.

If sellers do not follow through on Monday, then I think Tuesday is probably be a buying opportunity, but that is looking a bit far ahead.

Have a nice weekend everyone.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,486
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:13pm Dec 13, 2013 4:13pm
Hello YEN masters

Great reading the posts

Lets see if it stays up at these levels

I took some profit this time

so if we get a random dump

it won't catch me out for a change
  • #40,487
  • Dec 13, 2013 11:54pm Dec 13, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} 400 pips ! ACE! The current channel suggests that price will not go below 102.50. I prefer not to be too specific because that always causes egg-on-face...
Agreed, 102.50 or 102.30, otherwise need to re-work the analysis. Then, a potential push to a new high in next 2 weeks...
  • #40,488
  • Dec 15, 2013 10:36pm Dec 15, 2013 10:36pm
Quoting card
{quote} Fine, then! I will be back in a few days to say "I told you so". : )
See, I told you guys so! : )

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
  • #40,489
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:10am Dec 16, 2013 5:10am
-More sell stops seen under today’s lows down to 102.50. Current low is 102.64.
-s/t stops noted below 102.60, bids 102.15, larger stops below
-Option barrier at 104.0 still too.

There were more earlier but didn't have time to post em. DS's order flow site usually has the info right away.
  • #40,490
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:39am Dec 16, 2013 5:39am
Elliott Wave analysis works in all timeframes. From my personal experience, it becomes easier to spot the waves when using larger time frames. For today's school of trading, my focus shall be on the weekly chart. In the USDJPY weekly chart here, we see that wave 5 is currently in progress.

http://i42.tinypic.com/abmkjk.png

Here are some simple guidelines to trading Elliott Waves successfully. These guidelines works equally well in bullish uptrend waves and bearish downtrend waves. For the purpose of this exercise, since we are talking about USDJPY, our reference is the bullish uptrend wave.

  1. Elliott waves come in 5 waves. 3 bullish uptrend waves, plus 2 bearish (or corrective) downtrend waves.
  2. Wave 1, wave 3 and wave 5 are bullish uptrend waves.
  3. Wave 2 and wave 4 are corrective bearish downtrend waves.
  4. Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave.
  5. Bottom of wave 4 should not be lower than the peak of wave 1.
  6. For corrective waves 2 and 4, one should be a simple corrective wave and the other a complex corrective wave.
  7. Simple corrective wave means a simple ABC wave retracement. (See wave 2 below)
  8. Complex corrective waves means something more complicated, including triangle patterns. (See wave 4 below)


http://i42.tinypic.com/bgd4n.png

Base on the above guidelines, we can conclude that USDJPY in the weekly chart is a valid Elliott Wave. Furthermore, I have calculated the time of each wave. Wave 1 started in 30 Jan 2012. And the current wave, wave 5, shall proceed into the year 2014.

http://i43.tinypic.com/kaldlt.png

to be continued...

  • #40,491
  • Dec 16, 2013 9:20am Dec 16, 2013 9:20am
@ForexMGames so wave five is expected to be the same size as wave one?
and cannot be bigger than wave three?

From the looks of it that being correct wave five will be about 820 pips taking it to around 108
  • #40,492
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:19pm Dec 16, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting brinks
@ForexMGames so wave five is expected to be the same size as wave one? and cannot be bigger than wave three? From the looks of it that being correct wave five will be about 820 pips taking it to around 108

Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave. This USDJPY wave 3 is really very long. My thinking is wave 5 should be between wave 3 and 1.

USDJPY around 108 is one of my target projections for wave 5. See part 2 of my post coming soon.
  • #40,493
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:27pm Dec 16, 2013 3:27pm
some fundamentals: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen...mw_story_kiosk
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,494
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:37pm Dec 16, 2013 3:37pm
Here's what I'm looking at...

Waiting for a line touch to enter a buy order.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t131.PNG Size: 31 KB
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #40,495
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:44pm Dec 16, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
-More sell stops seen under today’s lows down to 102.50. Current low is 102.64. -s/t stops noted below 102.60, bids 102.15, larger stops below -Option barrier at 104.0 still too. There were more earlier but didn't have time to post em. DS's order flow site usually has the info right away.
Great analysis.

The daily is a concern at the moment, it has not advanced in the past two weeks and 104.00 is an issue.

I just do not see any major move this side of Christmas.
  • #40,496
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:05pm Dec 16, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting iamkjb
{quote} Great analysis. The daily is a concern at the moment, it has not advanced in the past two weeks and 104.00 is an issue. I just do not see any major move this side of Christmas.
....except for Wednesday perhaps.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,497
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:37pm Dec 16, 2013 4:37pm
Fed on Wednesday, but by the time the Fed rolls around, you will be too late if you are still trying to decide to buy or sell. Should be some solid setups in the coming 36 hours so take them as they happen and you just may be positioned for the big move on Wednesday.

Daily close >103 which is nice for bulls. Price in a super tight range at the moment. Broke below 61.8% weekly retracement today, but with the weak close Friday I believe market was anticipating that.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,498
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:43pm Dec 16, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting zusch
Fed on Wednesday, but by the time the Fed rolls around, you will be too late if you are still trying to decide to buy or sell. Should be some solid setups in the coming 36 hours so take them as they happen and you just may be positioned for the big move on Wednesday. Daily close >103 which is nice for bulls. Price in a super tight range at the moment. Broke below 61.8% weekly retracement today, but with the weak close Friday I believe market was anticipating that.
I wanted to pick some more up some more Uj when it dropped to 102.68... Went out and had some drinks and needless to say missed my opportunity.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,499
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I wanted to pick some more up some more Uj when it dropped to 102.68... Went out and had some drinks and needless to say missed my opportunity.
I was sleeping when it traded there, but I'm not so sure we missed a great opportunity. I'm actually feeling just a bit bearish at the moment. I'm thinking U/J moves up to 103.15 here and then drops pretty quick.

As far as the rest of the week, either U/J will go up, or /ES will go up as I don't believe that correlation is in tact anymore.. As a chartist, I'm leaning towards /ES contining b/c it is at all time highs, while U/J has behaved bearish to some key technical barriers. The economy here in the U.S. isn't getting that much better (the data has been slighly better), but I doubt the Fed will taper... or the taper will be small & insignificant and it is just a big bear trap as we have been Fed this idea that "bad news is good news."
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #40,500
  • Edited 6:51pm Dec 16, 2013 5:21pm | Edited 6:51pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I was sleeping when it traded there, but I'm not so sure we missed a great opportunity. I'm actually feeling just a bit bearish at the moment. I'm thinking U/J moves up to 103.15 here and then drops pretty quick. As far as the rest of the week, either U/J will go up, or /ES will go up as I don't believe that correlation is in tact anymore.. As a chartist, I'm leaning towards /ES contining b/c it is at all time highs, while U/J has behaved bearish to some key technical barriers. The economy here in the U.S. isn't getting that much better...
People always say don't fight the FED and the same can be said for the BOJ. Even with an insignificant amount of tapering the trend will continue upward. The BOJ will continue to ease and as long as the economic data in the US is in line with what's forecasted there will be no reason to fight the trend.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
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