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  • #863,281
  • Dec 12, 2013 5:08pm Dec 12, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} when UJ breaks 103.7, watch the reaction of euro and cable. {image}
haven't been watching cable recently but when EU finally cracks 1.3738 its going to go with a bang. It has challenged that level so many times without success.... I know because my scalper EA placed a trade there that refuses to close (been up by 2-3 pips about 3-4 times without break)
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #863,282
  • Dec 12, 2013 5:25pm Dec 12, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} when UJ breaks 103.7, watch the reaction of euro and cable. {image}
There's no fixed rules for that to happen. If the demad for EUR and GBP are higher than USD from JPY? I long U/J and prepared to see the worst near years end anticipating profit taking from indices.
  • #863,283
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:00pm Dec 12, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} when UJ breaks 103.7, watch the reaction of euro and cable. {image}

and if 103 73 holds ???
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #863,284
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:10pm Dec 12, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} and if 103 73 holds ???
103.50 barrier is the most important , if it fails to hold price above in next hours a big retrace is to occur IMO
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #863,285
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:13pm Dec 12, 2013 6:13pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Giving advise is rather premature to veteran like Magix. Please allow some humility.
Allow me to state this for your own good and I don't expect you to think through it...I am guessing you must be a veteran too. LOL!

"It's the questions that we can't answer that teach us the most. They teach us how to think. If you give a man an answer, all
he gains is a little fact. But give him a question, and he'll look for his own answers."

I gave Magix an advice, and I don't expect him to take it neither, but deep down in his subconscious he knows that he needs to be checked
up every once in a while. There's a disconnect between knowledge and performance, and having a track record with bad habits to prove it
doesn't mean anything to me.....At the end of the day, we all are going to have different results based on our commitment and the right mindset.

Note: In this game, Attitude is 99% and Experience is 1%
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,286
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:18pm Dec 12, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} and if 103 73 holds ???
The last time UJ made to 103.73 was in May 2013. If it fails to break it this time after 6+ months, it is a double top separated by many monthly candles, the retrace will be big.

On the other hand, EJ is at new yearly high after almost a year consolidation, its support will be strong at 136/136.5 if it retraces back to it.

This way the downside of euro is limited, while the upside is nobody knows.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ_270.png Size: 354 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #863,287
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:25pm Dec 12, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting myk
{quote} Well actually very good n sensible words .Ur trade plan is good if u keep it that way u wrote. Better money management,good risk rewards ratio can move u forward quick .I personally m addicted to scalps but at the same time i make intra week swing trades my scalping ratio is no more the 40% win 60% lose (2013) But those lots which i keep after catchn a trend from start gets me going n earning some Among all my friends i see more survivors which are not scalpers. but there are always exceptions .anyway good luck
Keeping up with a Plan is not always easy, but it helps you in many cases to keep your emotions in check...After going through countless strategies and methods, I have come to realize that when you focus on trading Market Structure and Harmonic Patterns, you already know how much you can lose before you even place the Trade... That's right there is a "Pain Free Trade"

Don't be surprised tho, a 40% win can be as successful as some people might think....Cut your losses short and let your wins run.....

By the way, Thanks for your insight!
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,288
  • Dec 12, 2013 6:46pm Dec 12, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting OctaveJay509
....Cut your losses short and let your wins run....
That's the most celebrated cliche of all times ... i wish one day to find someone able to tell , which trade is a loss and which isn't!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,289
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:05pm Dec 12, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This was an awesome read. Not for the reasons that you actually got single point right, but because you actually have a base. The real fact of the matter is that you have an idea, seemingly almost informed, but so muddled that it is barely cohesive and wouldn't surprise me if this turned you into a loser on more trades than winner. In fact, I would go so far as to say, that after you have gone through your analysis, and finally taken a trade, your stops are so tight that you are gone in the first 10, either direction, but in more cases than...

It seems like you are telling me your own story whenever you are taking a trade, and of course we all suffer from that vein popping up. LOL!!! You should definitely do some comedy stand up mate...I enjoy reading your thought process and admire your sarcasm....

I am not so sure if you are familiar with Harmonic Patterns, but if you do yourself a favor, you might know exactly what i am talking about. The concept is very
simple and intriguing. Harmonic trading combines patterns and Math into a trading method that is precise and based on the premise that patterns repeat themselves over and over again, and if you do pay attention to historical data, you will have a high probability to predict where the next price movement is
going to be. And knowing that from the get-go takes away all your hopes, your emotions that this trade is going to be a winner.

You already know exactly how much you are willing to put in and how much you are willing to lose...This is the kind of method that i use on my own trading plan, and don't get me wrong if i go back to basis every once in a while trading support and resistance level. HAHA!!!

By the way, I refuse to trade DEMO ACCOUNT, because there's no commitment and a real plan involved.....I don't mind to lose some money while
testing a few strategies....This is actually my best way to challenge myself to learn this game....

Attitude is 99%, and Experience 1%

Since you are a Vet, I don't mind to learn from your mistakes......

Let me ask you some questions:
What is your thought process behind every trade?
is Hope play a major factor on all your trading decisions?
How do you make a case to buy or sell a pair?
How do you manage a losing trade?
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #863,290
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:30pm Dec 12, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting OctaveJay509
{quote} It seems like you are telling me your own story whenever you are taking a trade, and of course we all suffer from that vein popping up. LOL!!! You should definitely do some comedy stand up mate...I enjoy reading your thought process and admire your sarcasm.... [b]I am not so sure if you are familiar with Harmonic Patterns, but if you do yourself a favor, you might know exactly what i am talking about. The concept is very simple and intriguing. Harmonic trading combines patterns and Math into a trading method that is precise and based...
It wasn't sarcasm, I was being serious.

Harmonic patterns seem to look perfect in hindsight, but are very open to interpretation, in the same way that constellations look like their pictures to some...

As far as relying on patterns, Supply and Demand is something that I have come to appreciate for assisting in both trend recognition and in watching for triggering in trend. The market works by it's own clock, I don't try to dictate when the train will get to the station as much as I am concerned on being at the right station.

For example:
Quoting Magix
My charts tell me the next loading zone is still 1.3725-1.3730. I just don't know when we are going to get there. Trade well!
Granted, I missed by 7 pips, but the forecast was like 15 hours prior and called when the bear brigade was finally starting to go long.

My thought process behind trades is prosperity. Really, what other process is there?
Market kills hope and the hopeful.
I don't make a case for buying and selling. I watch for overbought on downtrends and oversold on uptrends. When opportunities present, I push a button.
I manage losing trades by cost averaging in the direction of the major trend, taking subsequent triggers in the same process as the primary.
If the trend swings, I close at a loss, on retrace and verification of trend.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #863,291
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:43pm Dec 12, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} That's the most celebrated cliche of all times ... i wish one day to find someone able to tell , which trade is a loss and which isn't!
It's a decent quote. Much easier to say than to apply though....enter on small zones of risk, exit if you're wrong. Hold if you're right and see if fundamentals support the position. The payoff can be fantastic.

The key part of this is being able to identify (relatively) high probability tops and bottoms though, most people can't do that.
  • #863,292
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:05pm Dec 12, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} 103.50 barrier is the most important , if it fails to hold price above in next hours a big retrace is to occur IMO
holding price tightly for the previous 4h ..
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #863,293
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:06pm Dec 12, 2013 8:06pm
Hi everyone, I am kinda new here, I was wondering if the currency volatility could be a useful tool to determinate the pairs to trade.

Here is the link http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/currency-volatility

I was thinking to choose those pairs with wider bars, any insights about it?

Attached Image


thanks in advance for you opinions

fxjorr
  • #863,294
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:23pm Dec 12, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} It's a decent quote. Much easier to say than to apply though....enter on small zones of risk, exit if you're wrong. Hold if you're right and see if fundamentals support the position. The payoff can be fantastic. The key part of this is being able to identify (relatively) high probability tops and bottoms though, most people can't do that.
Identifying a top or even a bottom isn't biggest problem - actually they are quite easy to find .. the problem comes when you decide to scale in! If you don't scaling in, then you will rely on the risk factor and how much money it give back to u. So, even if you make 150 pips on a one bottom/top catching - you gonna throw all of them away trying to catch the next bottom / top . So, if you gonna play the top / bottom thing, you have to scale in: This will come with one great advantage and one hopeless problem.

The advantage is :

You next trades will have a zero risk, while if proven to be profitable will be a multiplyer of profits.

The hopeless problem:

You scale in , in the wrong direction

think about it !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #863,295
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:30pm Dec 12, 2013 8:30pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Exchange rates are not limited to currency speculators alone. You can expand on that.
Hi Ken A, thanks for the reply, I am trying to trade only Currency Pairs.
  • #863,296
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:32pm Dec 12, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Identifying a top or even a bottom isn't biggest problem - actually they are quite easy to find .. the problem comes when you decide to scale in! If you don't scaling in, then you will rely on the risk factor and how much money it give back to u. So, even if you make 150 pips on a one bottom/top catching - you gonna throw all of them away trying to catch the next bottom / top . So, if you gonna play the top / bottom thing, you have to scale in: This will come with one great advantage and one hopeless problem. The advantage is : You next...
I don't scale in, I put all my risk money in upfront. I don't see the point of scaling personally except as a feel good exercise. I pick tops and bottoms because I have confidence that price will turn at them; scaling in by most peoples' practice means adding to my position at fixed pip increments, the locations of which themselves have no significance to me. No-man's land. And yeah you do end up losing a significant amount to later losses; often I perform break-even for weeks at a time until I catch the next good entry supported by a major fundamental move. Those are the account boosters, the rest of the time the goal is just to tread water with the more modest wins.
  • #863,297
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:01pm Dec 12, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Not good at explaining things but will try. How often you read posts here about the fundamental such as Spanish Unemployment Rate is high and things are not good in Euro Zone yet EUR/USD keeps climbing. Find out the reasons and you will have a better success rate.
thanks ken A for your efforts, but I am lost. I really dont try to be such accurate, I choose a bias, set a position and wait, take profit or manage the trade.
  • #863,298
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:15pm Dec 12, 2013 9:15pm
todays is 13th of friday, can we expect some thing unusual today?
Its just a beginning !!!
  • #863,299
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:22pm Dec 12, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting fxjorr
{quote} thanks ken A for your efforts, but I am lost. I really dont try to be such accurate, I choose a bias, set a position and wait, take profit or manage the trade.
This is what you have started doing. Hope it will be like this tomorrow and day after tomorrow.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #863,300
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:31pm Dec 12, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting Ken A
Trying to be productive or counter productive while waiting - scalping short U/J and E/J {image}{image}
I think this what Jay Walker termed "Nursing Semi".

So, you are nursing a semi.
The Thief of Wall Street
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