EURUSD

Why would they start devaluation at the end of tourist season?

Bearish bat on h1

short @1.3794 with

SL @1.383

tp1 1.367x
tp2 1.362x

in long 3788 risking 4

Good Morning!
Today's S/R Levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
AUDUSD
EURJPY
S&P 500

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post7151871
&Euro Pink & S&P 500 Pink

Why not at least wait until after Draghi? Looking back over the year, it seems the majority of the time that he spoke (about 80%) the market moved up...

GL anyway.

divergence? a good example of something.

THE euro zone is looking healthier than it has in some time, but that is not saying much. The long-suffering economy pulled out of recession earlier this year, unemployment is levelling off, and crisis worries continue to ebb along with government borrowing costs. Yet growth may struggle to top 1% next year, which in turn is generating fear of deflation. European firms and households remain stuck under piles of debt. Earlier this month, amid signs of new economic weakness, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%. From late 2009 to mid-2012 the euro weakened as Europe’s debt crisis deepened. But since July of last year the euro has been on a tear, and it is now back to 2007 levels. After half a decade of financial gyrations, investors seem as eager to hold euros as ever. If the European economy is still shaky, why is the euro so strong?
An appreciating currency can cause serious problems. Exchange rates are an important determinant of the price of a country’s goods on world markets. If American car prices hold steady while the dollar strengthens, then the cost of American cars in yen or euros rises and America will sell fewer of them abroad. Europe has more reason than most to fear a strong currency. With firms, households and governments all cutting back, Europe is reliant on exports to drive growth and hiring. Some European leaders, such as France's president, François Hollande, worry that a strong euro is hurting European exporters.
Explaining exchange-rate moves is a near-impossible task. A currency might rise as improving economic prospects attract foreign capital—or because domestic banks are liquidating foreign investments and bringing money home to cover expected losses. Yet two factors look especially culpable for the euro's recent strength. One is falling odds of a nasty euro-zone break-up. The flip from weakening to strengthening came in July 2012, when the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, promised to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the single currency. Markets breathed a sigh of relief and seemed to worry less about keeping money in euros. Relatively tight monetary policy could also be a factor. European interest rates are often higher than those elsewhere, while inflation is lower. Those small differences can add up to big gains for investors who borrow dollars (for example), and use them to buy euros to park in European banks. This "carry trade" raises the value of the euro relative to other currencies.
A soaring euro is not all bad news. It could signal increased foreign interest in lending to periphery governments. And Europeans benefit from lower import prices. But the costs—to struggling exporters and from deflation—are probably larger. Luckily Europe is not powerless in the face of a buoyant euro. The ECB could discourage the carry trade by paying negative interest rates on deposits and could follow other rich-world central banks in deploying "quantitative easing" (QE) to boost the economy. QE entails printing euros to buy government bonds. In the end, an exchange rate is just a price: the price of euros, as expressed in other currencies. The surest way to bring it down is to make more euros.

And this
Can a crisis really be over when 12pc of the labor force is without a job? When unemployment among the youth is in very high double digits, reaching more than 50pc in Greece and Spain?" she said. "Growth has not been balanced across Europe and, therefore, may not be sustainable. There are pockets of stronger growth and high employment, for example in Germany, but growth is low or declining elsewhere. Most of the demand for European goods and services comes from abroad, not from within, leaving the economy at the mercy of the ups and downs of global trade," she said.
"The only durable solution lies in jump-starting growth. This means growth not only from stronger exports but also from a robust recovery in domestic demand."
Mrs Lagarde said the ECB "must act preemptively to stall further declines in inflation", and called on it to "find ways" to steer cheaper credit to small and medium-sized firms, hinting at some variant of the Bank of England's Funding for Lending scheme. Loans to Italian private firms fell 4.9pc in October.
While the eurozone began to recover in the second quarter, growth has been fitful and France relapsed again the third quarter. Industrial output fell in both Germany and France in October, though it has at last started to rebound in Italy after a peak-to-trough fall of almost 20pc.
Greece emerged from recession in the third quarter but that was almost certainly a flash in the pan. Exports fell 12.2pc in October, with a 20pc drop in shipments outside the EU, suggesting that the high euro in greatly complicating Greece's recovery efforts. Investment fell 12.6pc and is now down 68pc from the peak six years ago.
"People have got ahead of themselves in thinking that Greece is really turning around. They are getting to the limits of social cohesion," said Raoul Ruparel from Open Europe.
Dimitris Drakopoulos from Nomura said Greece faces a "fiscal shock" over coming months as property taxes rise and the state finally collects tax arrears dating back as far as 2010. "It is natural to expect that the country will return to recession in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year," he said.
The Greek government is now in a polite stand-off with the EU-IMF Troika, fulfilling just 60 of 135 measures demanded by the IMF under its rescue memorandum. Premier Antonis Samaras is withholding much of the legislation from parliament because he cannot risk defeat with his coalition majority hanging from a slender thread.
While Greece has achieved a primary budget surplus, this solves almost nothing. It still has to generate a big enough surplus to repay almost €10bn to creditors in May, an impossible task. The EU creditor bloc will almost certainly have to come up with fresh money avert another crisis.

So looking at the bigger picture Shorting the Euro is the only logical option.

TP reached (10), one in the pocket..break time for me, need to take the kids around…..

Will there be a live stream for Draghi's speech?

What is One Touch Barrier ??
Due to roll off @ NY cut at 3850 - Re Squawk

ever wonder why this sucker keeps going up? It wont drop much if UJ cannot break 103.7, instead it will keep going up. even wonder who is protecting UJ 103.7?

I give up on scalping many moons ago.. too much work for peanuts not to mention the risk of going blind over time.. but if you're a young gun & it works for you, thats what matters.. good grab there!

now we can see somethink like that !?

Greece and italy success story is a bullshit, people are very very pure, close to revolution

Not really, seeing as it's in a strong uptrend. As for some assumed protector, it's all there for you to see on your charts, and if not, it should be.

I can't seem to find it either, could anyone lend a hand?

draghi can shock markets.

Posted the numbers,,

Yes, he can shock the markets. Perhaps it's time to tell the truth. Let's wait and see...

Just FYI,, Draghi is speaking but on a Parliament Debate - not much expected