USD/JPY Discussion | Page 2018 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #40,341
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:27am Dec 11, 2013 4:27am
Quoting testing3000
{quote} Bikov, is this what you have predicted? UJ going south atm.

It wasn't a prediction, just an opinion based on the extreme COT position and usually when commercials and large speculators have such extreme positions some big move follows. The best scenario for the bulls would be unwinding of the commerc.from those long Yen positions and that would cause explosion up for UJ. But must say that most of the time when commercials and speculators, especially small ones are on the opposite side, commerc. wins, at least in short term. According to what I have read about this, long term large spec. are with the trend - on the right side, but in this kind of situation some big move happens and goes in favor of commercials. I don't think that this is a big move, UJ fell for some 40 pips, it isn't bloodbath. But i'll repeat - usually doesn't means always. I'm not an expert for this kind of analyses, I'm still learning but I think this is the case.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,342
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:54am Dec 11, 2013 4:54am
Quoting bikov
{quote} It wasn't a prediction, just an opinion based on the extreme COT position and usually when commercials and large speculators have such extreme positions some big move follows....
To resume, careful with longs. Right now it seems that the price found some support at 102.40/50 and I'm thinking of adding another long , the last one is still alive, SL at 102.33 still here. TP? If this goes up, I expect new highs of the week. If not well.. life goes on
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,343
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:37am Dec 11, 2013 5:37am
Quoting kweiss10
hmmm....long anyone?
Me and Elite are always long (except when I close out like on Sunday open )

Known orders according to ForexLive.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,344
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:57am Dec 11, 2013 5:57am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Me and Elite are always long (except when I close out like on Sunday open ) Known orders according to ForexLive.

I'm short biased but longing has been very profitable for me in the past few weeks.
  • #40,345
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:43am Dec 11, 2013 6:43am
Beautiful trend on the 4 hr, better watch out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen trend.PNG Size: 25 KB
  • #40,346
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:53am Dec 11, 2013 6:53am
Quoting bikov
{quote} It wasn't a prediction, just an opinion based on the extreme COT position and usually when commercials and large speculators have such extreme positions some big move follows. The best scenario for the bulls would be unwinding of the commerc.from those long Yen positions and that would cause explosion up for UJ. But must say that most of the time when commercials and speculators, especially small ones are on the opposite side, commerc. wins, at least in short term. According to what I have read about this, long term large spec. are with...


When commercials and large specs have opposite positions?

Thats the point. Speculators, Corporates and real money investors trade with the banks (commercial) and the banks hedge. Thats why the positions are always opposite.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,347
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:10am Dec 11, 2013 7:10am
Still short on USDJPY with 101.97/62 as TP levels. MACD signal both on daily and 4H giving a bearish signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 132 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture1.JPG Size: 102 KB
  • #40,348
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:14am Dec 11, 2013 8:14am
Quoting samsonic009
Still short on USDJPY with 101.97/62 as TP levels. MACD signal both on daily and 4H giving a bearish signal. {image} {image}
seems like it bounced up from around 102.39 but i agreed on daily and 4H, it can go a little bit lower.
  • #40,349
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:10am Dec 11, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} When commercials and large specs have opposite positions? Thats the point. Speculators, Corporates and real money investors trade with the banks (commercial) and the banks hedge. Thats why the positions are always opposite.

when commercials and large speculators have such extreme positions

I meant extreme, that's was my point but I didn't mention "extreme" further in my comment, my mistake. Although i agree with the fact that commerc. are hedging, they are not always in a such opposite position - a statement for euro from December 6th says that large spec. and commercials are very close : http://cotbase.com/
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,350
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:16am Dec 11, 2013 10:16am
Looks like OrderFlowNews is citing Bids at 102.20 & large sell stops under 101.90
  • #40,351
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:19am Dec 11, 2013 10:19am
And my SL at 102.33 got hit. Hm, maybe the bloodbath just begun ? or just TP going on? Anyway, the support zone at 102.40 still holds, it acts like an accumulation zone. For confirmation it must break the resistance at 102.75, right now the bulls don't provide much confidence (nor the bears). Waiting game.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,352
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:22am Dec 11, 2013 10:22am
Quoting bikov
And my SL at 102.33 got hit. Hm, maybe the bloodbath just begun ? or just TP going on? Anyway, the support zone at 102.40 still holds, it acts like an accumulation zone. For confirmation it must break the resistance at 102.75, right now the bulls don't provide much confidence (nor the bears). Waiting game.
No news today, so boys are playing. Check out the 15 minute EU chart.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #40,353
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:28am Dec 11, 2013 10:28am
Hello Yen Bulls.
Overall sentiment still bullish based on D1 and H4, however, price is likely to retrace to 102.2 area which is also the H4 support imo. Resistance on the H1 kumo cloud hammers price down nicely at 102.74 area. This retracement is needed before we can continue up to the 103.8 area where we might see the tipping of the iceberg.....
S&P down 0.69% and DJIA down 0.50% as we speak probably due to the strengthening of the US economy and investors taking profits.... looks like the great taper is coming soon.....
  • #40,354
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:31am Dec 11, 2013 10:31am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} No news today, so boys are playing. Check out the 15 minute EU chart.....

Yes, m15 at eu looks like...nothing? Like my parrot pet scratching on the charts. But looking at UJ m15 looks like support is holding.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,355
  • Dec 11, 2013 10:56am Dec 11, 2013 10:56am
101.80-102 my first buying area.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #40,356
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:08am Dec 11, 2013 11:08am
If swissy has finally found a solid support at 0.8850 than it could give some lift to UJ. If not, agree with 101.70/80 zone for reload longs. But DXY looks very bearish looking at daily..and under 80 . Cannot expect much for UJ when dollar is in a such bad shape. Is there any war going on in USA that we europeans are not aware of to justify this sell off ? Did USA just bankrupted and nobody told me? I mean look at the usd/chf..just scary.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,357
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:11am Dec 11, 2013 11:11am
Quoting bikov
If swissy has finally found a solid support at 0.8850 than it could give some lift to UJ. If not, agree with 101.70/80 zone for reload longs. But DXY looks very bearish looking at daily..and under 80 . Cannot expect much for UJ when dollar is in a such bad shape. Is there any war going on in USA that we europeans are not aware of to justify this sell off ? Did USA just bankrupted and nobody told me? I mean look at the usd/chf..just scary.
Just profit taking combined with rampant speculation. The fundamentals are still the same.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #40,358
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:15am Dec 11, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Just profit taking combined with rampant speculation. The fundamentals are still the same.

Hm fundamentals.. this is more for eur/usd thread but it gives some views on the overall fx (and why I got burned at e/u shorts instead of sticking only to my favorite uj) :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fed vs ecb.png Size: 66 KB
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #40,359
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:28am Dec 11, 2013 11:28am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Looks like OrderFlowNews is citing Bids at 102.20 & large sell stops under 101.90
close my trade earlier before reaching 102.2
  • #40,360
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:44am Dec 11, 2013 11:44am
aud/jpy looks like ready for up, UJ still holds 102.30 (after the clearing of the stops bellow). Adding longs at AJ and UJ (sl 101.5) offers solid r/r ratio.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
36 traders viewing now