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  • #28,121
  • Dec 10, 2013 6:45am Dec 10, 2013 6:45am
USD/JPY


BOOM. Trade closed for easy pips. Entered a little bit late so missed out on a little extra pips. How much simpler can this system get ?
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #28,122
  • Dec 10, 2013 6:54am Dec 10, 2013 6:54am
Quoting Tiggrrr
USD/JPY BOOM. Trade closed for easy pips. Entered a little bit late so missed out on a little extra pips. How much simpler can this system get ? {image}
Nice traing mate, keep it up
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #28,123
  • Dec 10, 2013 6:56am Dec 10, 2013 6:56am
EURJPY tried 3 times short on H1 for +52 pips on LO and the two hours later.

We see now, that the move goes further down - but I decided to take small profits on this countertrends. Because of the strength of EJ - we had so many mini-only-retracements in EJ the last days, which melt a lot of my small-won-pips away. So I decided to take rather small profits on this retracements only.

@Tiggrrr: I couldn't agree - I don't find it very easy on this countertrend moves to get the pips. This is my 4th attempt in the last days, which lead now to a significant win. The other 3 stopped out b/e or with only a few pips - that's tedious.
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fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,124
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:05am Dec 10, 2013 7:05am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} I entered the EJ short on the 8:00 GMT candle, still in at the moment.
Hi Lastingwell: I should have added that the blue line is the 3rd line you suggested adding.
Why are fxfox & bizzle's trade not CT?? Cheers Oldie
  • #28,125
  • Edited 7:28am Dec 10, 2013 7:17am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting Oldie
{quote} Hi Lastingwell: I should have added that the blue line is the 3rd line you suggested adding. Why are fxfox & bizzle's trade not CT?? Cheers Oldie
Okay disregard that I actually lost a little on this trade, my timing was bad and it played a trick on me. But here are the reasons I entered...

First of all, this is an h1 trade. You have several small bodied candles, a failure to make a new high at FF and an even lower close. At this point we turn to the TDI, all three TDI lines are EXTREMELY overbought. I will reiterate what I previously said, Dean Malone teaches us that when the MBL finds itself crossing the 68 or 32 lines, we are usually in for a reversal (be it short or long termed). You have the RSI price line (lime) crossing below the trade signal line (red) and both crossing below the market base line (dodger blue). What's more, as my skype room collegue pointed out, there is a massive bearish divergence (indicated by the magenta lines). All of this, + the fact that EJ has been rallying for way too long without a correction should clear a CT trade. As it turns out, the TL was broken and price keeps going lower. I won't be surprised if Lastingwell posts a screenshot of a 100 pipper soon.

edit: initially I had another trendline drawn, which in time proved to be unimportant, and I waited for a clear break of that, which is why I entered so late and why I killed my tradewhen I noticed the other one. What can I say, I'm not much of a morning person...
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  • #28,126
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:36am Dec 10, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Oldie
{quote} Hi Lastingwell: Your trade does not look a great deal of difference to my H4 NZDJPY with the following differences. NJ had a series of strong bullish candles, then a medium size, then a doji, then a bearish candle-entered on the next 1 H1 EJ large series of minor bullish candles, then a weak bearish, then your trade. Both pairs were at a high point. What made you choose to enter a trade then? Are you also saying that you want the green TDI to be below the red & blue. Do you place any significance on the position of the red TDI? Do you consider...
Your nzd/jpy trade was taken way above the mbl, ej 1hr trade I took had crossed over the mbl, the next timeframe up had crossed down, your next timeframe up is still strongly up, there are quite a few differences with the tdi even if you don't take into account the candles.

Yes the green has to go below both the red and mbl for me to take a trade. The red I would like to see either heading in the same direction or at least flat, not opposite. I don't use the 5ma.
  • #28,127
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:42am Dec 10, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Oldie
{quote} Hi Lastingwell: I should have added that the blue line is the 3rd line you suggested adding. Why are fxfox & bizzle's trade not CT?? Cheers Oldie
There is nothing in my book wrong with taking CT trades as long as everything looks ready for it, strong s/r, maybe divergence, next timeframe up looking like it could turn etc etc, the time when a CT trade should not be taken is when the only thing going for it is a simple tdi cross, then you will lose your account very quickly. Look at their trades now and see if you can work out why they took them and why they were safer trades.
  • #28,128
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:02am Dec 10, 2013 8:02am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} There is nothing in my book wrong with taking CT trades as long as everything looks ready for it, strong s/r, maybe divergence, next timeframe up looking like it could turn etc etc, the time when a CT trade should not be taken is when the only thing going for it is a simple tdi cross, then you will lose your account very quickly. Look at their trades now and see if you can work out why they took them and why they were safer trades.

Hi Lastingwell: Thanks - lets hope I can commit it to memory. Cheers Oldie
  • #28,129
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:05am Dec 10, 2013 8:05am
Quoting fxFox.mb
EURJPY tried 3 times short on H1 for +52 pips on LO and the two hours later. We see now, that the move goes further down - but I decided to take small profits on this countertrends. Because of the strength of EJ - we had so many mini-only-retracements in EJ the last days, which melt a lot of my small-won-pips away. So I decided to take rather small profits on this retracements only. @Tiggrrr: I couldn't agree - I don't find it very easy on this countertrend moves to get the pips. This is my 4th attempt in the last days, which lead now to a significant...
Look at the difference between the trade you took today and the ones in the previous days. Look at the h4, both tdi and candles and you will see why those were mini retracements and this was a decent one. Until the trade I took this morning, using my own rules I have only bought EJ since 5th December.
  • #28,130
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:13am Dec 10, 2013 8:13am
Quoting Oldie
{quote} Hi Lastingwell: I should have added that the blue line is the 3rd line you suggested adding. Why are fxfox & bizzle's trade not CT?? Cheers Oldie
Oldie,

my trade was clear countertrend! Trend is stong UP in EURJPY.

I entered at about 9:07 GMT+1

  1. on the red H1 candle, few minutes after London Open (LO) -
    ready to take a quick exit with a possible small loss, because of at LO sometimes the trend turns.
  2. priceline crossed red trade signal line,
  3. priceline crossed MBL
  4. crossing below 68
  5. monthly, weekly and daily pivot R1 shortly above the last high
  6. possible entry conditions on H1 and H4

As I wrote I was very conservative with my target profit. Exiting for 20 pips, reentering and exiting for 30 pips.

I currently try to adapt Phx62-H1 strategy, targeting about 50 pips on H1.

If we take a short view on EJ now, we see that Phx62' 50-pips-target would have been reached about 20 min. ago. I should have been less afraid about a turn, looking at the rather good entry conditions above - I could bite me in my ... I was afraid that the move could be as small as the last weeks retracements, which stopped and turned only after 20-30 pips.

But that is trading, you never know what is happening in advance.

fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,131
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:15am Dec 10, 2013 8:15am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote}Until the trade I took this morning, using my own rules I have only bought EJ since 5th December.
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #28,132
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:17am Dec 10, 2013 8:17am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Look at the difference between the trade you took today and the ones in the previous days. Look at the h4, both tdi and candles and you will see why those were mini retracements and this was a decent one. Until the trade I took this morning, using my own rules I have only bought EJ since 5th December.
lastingwell,

you're absolutely right!
Just writing down the conditions on which I entered, I see for myself that I should have had more confidence in this setup.

But how do you differ between the "mini" retracements and this perhaps decent one at 9 am this morning - on this strong uptrend which I never thougth it would last that long?
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,133
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:22am Dec 10, 2013 8:22am
Quoting Oldie
{quote} Hi Lastingwell: Thanks - lets hope I can commit it to memory. Cheers Oldie
It testing some times Oldie, I know how you feel. QLD here.

cheers

Markup
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #28,134
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:36am Dec 10, 2013 8:36am
Quoting fxFox.mb
EURJPY tried 3 times short on H1 for +52 pips on LO and the two hours later. We see now, that the move goes further down - but I decided to take small profits on this countertrends. Because of the strength of EJ - we had so many mini-only-retracements in EJ the last days, which melt a lot of my small-won-pips away. So I decided to take rather small profits on this retracements only. @Tiggrrr: I couldn't agree - I don't find it very easy on this countertrend moves to get the pips. This is my 4th attempt in the last days, which lead now to a significant...
fxFox,
You need to learn to trust the TDI when it matches with price action. It doesn't get much better than that....entry on 2nd red candle at LO with a cross of green over red and the MBL.....moving out of the overbought area. When all those things fall into place, most of the time price will move at least 50 pips on Euro pairs, even if it is a retracement. Put in the time....learn from back testing and forward testing....you will see that for yourself.
As far as exits are concerned, I have found that if you wait for a candle to close in the opposite color or a long pullback bar forms, that is the time to exit, if your TP has not already been hit. Getting out at every little pullback will drive you crazy.
  • #28,135
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:46am Dec 10, 2013 8:46am
Quoting Phx62
{quote} fxFox, You need to learn to trust the TDI when it matches with price action. It doesn't get much better than that....entry on 2nd red candle at LO with a cross of green over red and the MBL.....moving out of the overbought area. When all those things fall into place, most of the time price will move at least 50 pips on Euro pairs, even if it is a retracement. Put in the time....learn from back testing and forward testing....you will see that for yourself. As far as exits are concerned, I have found that if you wait for a candle to close...
Phx62,

thanks a lot for this hints! And yes you're fully right. I must do some more homework.
Looking at this setup I see now, it could'nt nearly have been a better one for a countertrend.

But today I saw again - as beeing in the trade, I've got another view on the chart as not beeing in. As all of emanuell's documents tells us about the traders psychology. It's like wearing some other glasses...
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,136
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:49am Dec 10, 2013 8:49am
Quoting WDays
{quote} I won't be surprised if Lastingwell posts a screenshot of a 100 pipper soon. {image}
Not today, had 50 pip take profit set.
  • #28,137
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:53am Dec 10, 2013 8:53am
Quoting fxFox.mb
{quote} Phx62, thanks a lot for this hints! And yes you're fully right. I must do some more homework. Looking at this setup I see now, it could'nt nearly have been a better one for a countertrend. But today I saw again - as beeing in the trade, I've got another view on the chart as not beeing in. As all of emanuell's documents tells us about the traders psychology. It's like wearing some other glasses...

I couldn't agree more thats why you need to have faith in the decision you've made and have firm exit parameters. I do find I make less mistakes if I look at H4 as well as H1, short of being as brilliant as phx62 I treat it as my "training wheels"
  • #28,138
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:54am Dec 10, 2013 8:54am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Not today, had 50 pip take profit set.
I almost feel bad for you Great job
  • #28,139
  • Dec 10, 2013 9:13am Dec 10, 2013 9:13am
My best trade yet. Today gbpjpy +79 pips!! Really excited about this trading method.

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  • #28,140
  • Dec 10, 2013 9:35am Dec 10, 2013 9:35am
Quoting fxFox.mb
{quote}But how do you differ between the "mini" retracements and this perhaps decent one at 9 am this morning - on this strong uptrend which I never thougth it would last that long?
Just saw this part of your post. The difference between the mini retracements and this one was on the H4 chart, no real sense that the H4 was ready to turn yet, yesterday it looked like it could cross but the red was still rising steeply, by the time the h1 had crossed the mbl, the h4 had changed its mind and the green started to rise again so I wouldn't have gone in expecting much of a retrace the h4 candles stayed blue as well. This morning, h1 bearish divergence, nice cross on H1, h4 red line had flattened and green was crossing red.
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