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  • #862,281
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:04am Dec 10, 2013 7:04am
My H4 and daily charts.

Daily view continues to point to a 3-drives move with some trend line S/R confluence targetting the orange zone.

H4 view - looking stretched imo, having hit the 1.618 fib extension of the last correction down.

Overall bias is therefore long on higher T/F but may be ripe for a short scalp on lower T/F.
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  • #862,282
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:05am Dec 10, 2013 7:05am
Good day to you,

Entering long on the recent little dip.

Will see..

Regards
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  • #862,283
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:06am Dec 10, 2013 7:06am
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} Just not a fan of Elliot waves. Every time someone posts their Elliot wave "analysis" it looks totally subjective. Sometimes they count pullbacks, sometimes they don't...sometimes they count breakouts, sometimes they don't. Whatever looks best in hindsight. There is no rational explanation why it has to be 5 waves or 3 waves or whatever...but if you really want 5 waves...or 10 waves, or whatever you want, you can always "make it fit". In the chart below for example, the first pullback counts...yet the second one of pretty much the same...

Maybe you should have used a chart where at least some EW numbers and letters are placed of?
  • #862,284
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:15am Dec 10, 2013 7:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi, thought I should post it at both threads, as although this place should be interactive trading and not a school, it often is. And since I just got schooled, thought it may help some people here, so they wont make same fail. I very facked up. You can see from these two posts actually. I have traded NFP, plan was set clear. Leverage up to 40:1 before release and if release below entry and I get number desired, I scale up and lock at BE. {quote} We got great number and I have leveraged up to 80:1. Apart that second part of my plan, which was locking...

Man, sorry to hear that. Didn't you just switch brokers?
Fail better.
  • #862,285
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:23am Dec 10, 2013 7:23am
Where is killerwhale?
  • #862,286
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:28am Dec 10, 2013 7:28am
Quoting TauTrader
Where is killerwhale?
he quit or took a pause from FF as I have noticed lately that all this thing was disturbing and affecting his trading . who knows.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #862,287
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:29am Dec 10, 2013 7:29am
why benanki devalue his currency why he is the most stupid man in the world and why euro up all his news negitive and why dolar down all his news positive what the hell is this markete
  • #862,288
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:30am Dec 10, 2013 7:30am
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} If you like math, read Swannell's study...which clearly shows that it's simply not a reliable means to trade. 65% of the cases it didn't work out. Of course you can still be a winner using proper money management...but being wrong 65% of the time is worse than flipping a coin! You might just as well flip a coin and apply proper money management...and you'll make more $$$. {quote} Saw that too late...I'll stop now

Well, at least you have done some homework and have read the valuable work of Swanell.

But strangely, I can not remember, that he somewhere wrote, that it did not work 65% of the time. I can promise you, I have read the study completely. Maybe you may care to clarify?

Reading all the statements (again and again and again in the last 3-4 years here at FF), I have to wonder, how small the understanding of the proper use of EW (or any other TA?) is.

Nothing is set in stone. Anything can happen. There is no underlying scheme you can build an algorithm from in order to achieve to be right 90% of the time.

If there would be such a case, market simply would not function anymore.

All you can try is to be right more often than not, or to have greater wins than losses.



EW is all about probability. And when you would have really understand Swanells work, you simply would not make such ridiculous statements. EW is all about the visualization of social mood in the charts. And when you really understand EW you would know, that social mood ( = sentiment = price) can change on a dime (without need of extrinsic factor).

The work of an EW analyst is, to capture the picture and to show the future movement which has the highest probability.

Do not confuse probability with certainty.


Show me any statistical work that can claim (under all conditions), that:

a) trendlines works
b) MA's works
c) Candlesticks works
d) Price Action works
e) Mofus works
f) sentiment analysis works
g) fundamental analysis works
h) momentum analysis works
i) market profiles (volume analysis) works
j) funny indicators works
l) Gann work
m) astrology works
n) Gut-feeling works
o) Pivot-trading work
p) you name it works
q) dart throwing works


All have the same in common:

a) they work until they do not work
b) interpretation is subjective to a certain degree
c) a good analysis does not mean that you are able to place a good trade (that is the psycho thing)


Since naked trading (PA) is so en vogue, let me ask to get a chart from at least 5 traders (EU), 4h TF, with daily, weekly, monthly S/R levels on it.

After that you can see what subjectivity will do to the "to the pip" meme.........
  • #862,289
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:31am Dec 10, 2013 7:31am
Quoting hoom
{quote} he quit or took a pause from FF as I have noticed lately that all this thing was disturbing and affecting his trading . who knows.
Ah, Ok

Thank you sir

Regards
  • #862,290
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:33am Dec 10, 2013 7:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Well, at least you have done some homework and have read the valuable work of Swanell. But strangely, I can not remember, that he somewhere wrote, that it did not work 65% of the time. I can promise you, I have read the study completely. Maybe you may care to clarify? Reading all the statements (again and again and again in the last 3-4 years here at FF), I have to wonder, how small the understanding of the proper use of EW (or any other TA?) is. Nothing is set in stone. Anything can happen. There is no underlying scheme you can build an...
Good post, sir

Regards
  • #862,291
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:36am Dec 10, 2013 7:36am
its gambling mate. if you have opened a live account close it now and save your hard earned money.
  • #862,292
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:37am Dec 10, 2013 7:37am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Well, at least you have done some homework and have read the valuable work of Swanell. But strangely, I can not remember, that he somewhere wrote, that it did not work 65% of the time. I can promise you, I have read the study completely. Maybe you may care to clarify? Reading all the statements (again and again and again in the last 3-4 years here at FF), I have to wonder, how small the understanding of the proper use of EW (or any other TA?) is. Nothing is set in stone. Anything can happen. There is no underlying scheme you can build an...


Nothing works - but i think we have to drop down now
  • #862,293
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:41am Dec 10, 2013 7:41am
Quoting 4exNinja
{quote} I'm not saying a larger correction isn't due, but it's not because of the 5th wave! Like I said, in hindsight it might look as if it often works...but it's useless as a predictor. Let's look at your chart for example: {image} Let's pretend 1 happened and you end up at the spot I marked A...you could have assigned 2 there (because you obviously didn't know about the candles following it). Yet you didn't. IF you had assigned 2 there, you could have thought the spot I marked as B is the start of the next let...yet you didn't. In hindsight,...

looking at the UJ chart:

the EW labels are AT THIS TIME proper

we do now from experience, that when we have such a long extended wave 3 the most likely outcome for a wave 5 will be, that it will be at nearly the same length than wave 1

Regarding the wave 4:

yes, right, when the first wave down from the top developed, it could have been all of the correction. But then again:

there are some rules and guidelines:

a) would be this first wave down sufficient in price and time to constitute a wave 4?
b) rule of alternation: wave 2 was retracing very deep - so wave 4 should be more shallow (in regards to price)
c)we can look at fib-levels and look at Swanells work to estimate, if the wave 3 top was really a top (wave 1/wave 3 relationship) with good fib-relationship
d) when you think a wave 4 develops, you simply take time and let it develop until the structure gets more clear. From viewing the first wave down it was clear that it was only an ABC-move and not an impulse. So the next idea would have been to watch for an ABC-flat corretion, or a developing triangle
  • #862,294
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:43am Dec 10, 2013 7:43am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good post, sir Regards

Hi TauTrader,

thank you
  • #862,295
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:43am Dec 10, 2013 7:43am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Well, at least you have done some homework and have read the valuable work of Swanell. But strangely, I can not remember, that he somewhere wrote, that it did not work 65% of the time. I can promise you, I have read the study completely. Maybe you may care to clarify? Reading all the statements (again and again and again in the last 3-4 years here at FF), I have to wonder, how small the understanding of the proper use of EW (or any other TA?) is. Nothing is set in stone. Anything can happen. There is no underlying scheme you can build an...
they work.. all..

and they work under "some" market conditions.. and doesn't with "other" market conditions..

The miss interpretation is soo often in retail sector.. and majority of traders are "reading" indicators on absolute values.. or as written in stone.. while they ignore .. or choose to ignore.. the background on current PA playing on...

so in short.. any oscillator can give you different reading in trending, consolidation, accumulation or distribution..
The magic is to spot those conditions on higher TF.. and then use proper indicators.

[Proper tool for proper job..]

in many cases 5sma crossover is enough or just single Trendline..

  • #862,296
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:44am Dec 10, 2013 7:44am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9B80T220131209

Bears are coming
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #862,297
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:48am Dec 10, 2013 7:48am
this is the same as questioning traders analysis by blaming the methods.
completely unrelated.
for example:
someone shouting "don't trust ew, rich swannell is an elliottician that scam people"
or
"it's your fault boss that my salary is too small so i can't buy a condom, now look my gf has pregnant"
completely unrelated.
so lets just stop
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #862,298
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:49am Dec 10, 2013 7:49am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Nothing works - but i think we have to drop down now

I know, that especially your Mofus work most of the time unbelievable good


But most importantly:


since I know you now for some years and have witnessed so many life trading calls from you, I know that you are a very very good trader. And you do not trade such good only for the Mofu thing. It is trader personality/psychology/money management




Regarding the drop:

it would be inline with my EW analysis I showed this morning, but from probability point of view we might see another pop up in the 3780-3790 region.

So if one wants to trade that now (I mean short right now), I would adapt my money management to the above mentioned levels
  • #862,299
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:50am Dec 10, 2013 7:50am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi TauTrader, thank you
you have done lot of studies on this, may I ask how profitable are you using EW?
  • #862,300
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:51am Dec 10, 2013 7:51am
Quoting Piters
{quote} they work.. all.. and they work under "some" market conditions.. and doesn't with "other" market conditions.. The miss interpretation is soo often in retail sector.. and majority of traders are "reading" indicators on absolute values.. or as written in stone.. while they ignore .. or choose to ignore.. the background on current PA playing on... so in short.. any oscillator can give you different reading in trending, consolidation, accumulation or distribution.. The magic is to spot those conditions on higher TF.. and then use proper indicators....

can agree on all
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