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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,381
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:18am Dec 7, 2013 6:18am
think the market has realised that taper does not mean rate hikes (like it took a genius to work that one out) but for that reason the stock markets are not reacting and the risk currencies such as the euro remain well supported.

I think the real test will only come when the s&p turns and when the actual cut comes,

I personally think that the euro should be lower the US economy is clearly showing greater sign of improvement, whilst Europe is still dragging its heals, that said i think it is better to not fight it whilst flows are on the up, and only consider shorting once it shows that's what it wants to do. By this i mean the structure / channel on the 4 h / daily breaks down

as an aside the s&p is at a high and is not going to attract much inflows where bargains hunters may look at European and UK stocks where prices are at much lower value.
  • #71,382
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:35am Dec 7, 2013 6:35am
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...ical-analysis/
EU forecast from FxEmpire.
when the market don't do what is supposed then it will do strongly the contrary!
Per aspera ad astra
  • #71,383
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:03am Dec 7, 2013 7:03am
Quoting jpadvisor
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...ical-analysis/ EU forecast from FxEmpire. when the market don't do what is supposed then it will do strongly the contrary!
I believe FxEmpire is correct in their call, but you have to admit that their analysis was rather junior school.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,384
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:19am Dec 7, 2013 7:19am
Quoting n_aftab
think the market has realised that taper does not mean rate hikes (like it took a genius to work that one out) but for that reason the stock markets are not reacting and the risk currencies such as the euro remain well supported. I think the real test will only come when the s&p turns and when the actual cut comes, I personally think that the euro should be lower the US economy is clearly showing greater sign of improvement, whilst Europe is still dragging its heals, that said i think it is better to not fight it whilst flows are on the up, and...

Yes you are correct. The market knows that tapering is not tightening. However, tapering will bring back USD strength until such time that the Eurozone starts to show strength in the "real" economy and not just the equity markets or consumer/commercial confidence surveys. It's fine to be hopeful, but what really matters is profit, not enthusiasm. With an expensive Euro, how much of a chance do you think EZ exporters would have to meet those profit expectations? "Zero" sounds to me like a reasonable answer.

Then of course there are the rate differentials. Once QE starts tapering, the market knows it will not be a one-off taper and the liquidity to which it has become accustomed will start drying up quickly (Within 6 to 9 months). At that point there will be less USD supply which should drive up the cost to buy them... Laws of supply and demand. Also at some point in the very near future, the ECB has to start easing more... probably in the form of a "Funding for Lending" scheme similar to the one implemented for the UK housing and small business markets. Of course, from all the majors, it will be the Yen that will underperform the most and their rates are set to remain lower for much much longer thereby making it the perfect tool for the carry trade. So EUR/JPY I think will keep rising, but the winner will be USD/JPY by far... as long as risk stays "ON".

The EZ equity markets do show some promise for a stock picker, but I would not bet on the mainstream indices (Such as DAX. IBEX MIB etc) outperforming the main (and global) US based Dow Jones and S&P indices. Same applies to the Nikkei, but investors in that index are more likely to be Japanese pension funds as they turn focus away from JGBs and focus more on Equity markets and foreign sovereign bonds such as US Treasuries and emerging markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,385
  • Dec 7, 2013 10:51am Dec 7, 2013 10:51am
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,386
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:07pm Dec 7, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I believe FxEmpire is correct in their call, but you have to admit that their analysis was rather junior school.
Back to babypips!
BTW, I used to read their daily analysis made by Hyerczyk, a Gann expert, but at a certain point they started giving me a two weeks free signals. Well, as a result, only one call was good and all the other were misleading.
So, read everything but follow your own T.A.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #71,387
  • Dec 7, 2013 1:29pm Dec 7, 2013 1:29pm
In small tf like m15 there is possibility of small pullback.

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But in longer tf like weekly there is much space technically to further up. So next week we may see a fresh high above 1.3830.

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Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #71,388
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:08pm Dec 7, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting fxlover11
In small tf like m15 there is possibility of small pullback. {image} But in longer tf like weekly there is much space technically to further up. So next week we may see a fresh high above 1.3830. {image}
These are the possibilities I see starting from the most likely to the least likely.

Scenario 1 (Most likely with December taper)
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Scenario 2 (Most likely without December taper)
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Scenario 3 (Least likely)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,389
  • Dec 7, 2013 5:40pm Dec 7, 2013 5:40pm
long term analysis..weekly chart.
the euro is within the range ( high in 2009..5143 and 2010 low 1876) for 3 years.
then in which we come first goal! high or low?
seems to me that I do not believe in the euro 51xx .. but as everything is possible ...
I believe that first 17xx than 51xx ????
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  • #71,390
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:28am Dec 8, 2013 4:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} These are the possibilities I see starting from the most likely to the least likely. Scenario 1 (Most likely with December taper) {image} Scenario 2 (Most likely without December taper) {image} Scenario 3 (Least likely) {image}
Combining Scenario 1 and 2 together, this is the most likely EW count, with the red path being more likely because wave e is usually 61.8% of wave d.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,391
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:45am Dec 8, 2013 4:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Combining Scenario 1 and 2 together, this is the most likely EW count, with the red path being more likely because wave e is usually 61.8% of wave d. {image}
If the previous large wave is wave 1 then it may not be a triangle but will be a sideway wave 2 correction. As wave 2 can't be a triangle. Again if the previous wave is wave A then it can be a wave B triangle. Btw at first we have to see whether price can break the blue tl or not if it go there.

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Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #71,392
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:33am Dec 8, 2013 5:33am
Quoting fxlover11
{quote} If the previous large wave is wave 1 then it may not be a triangle but will be a sideway wave 2 correction. As wave 2 can't be a triangle. Again if the previous wave is wave A then it can be a wave B triangle. Btw at first we have to see whether price can break the blue tl or not if it go there. {image}
Yes that count looks valid also, but the result is the same as we still need to come down for wave c. You have just approached it from a higher degree.

Mind you, a wave 2 is usually a very deep retrace. 61.8% to 88.6%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,393
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:12am Dec 8, 2013 8:12am
Re: LIVE TRADE EXPLORERS and my conclusions at the end of 2013.

Hi guys

I have been experimenting a lot with Trade Explorer in 2013.
Not only I did it with my automatic trading, but I was following top LIVE trading accounts available in “trade” section here on FF.
If I found somebody who has consistent and steady profits I added him to my “buddies” and watched his trades.
I was astonished at the beginning seeing so many traders making over 500% in a single month.
During the year I used to add new people and removed many “good” traders blowing out their 1000% profit accounts in a single day.
Now, in December the leaderboard 2013 winners look completely different then in January 2013.
The traders left on the top are those with average profits around 150-300% in whole 2013, with only 2 traders above 300%.
What was interesting is most of them based their trades on hundreds of small pips trades (like 5-20pips) rather then
holding on to the positions for weeks and profiting 500-700pips.
It’s really worth to have a look, as the dashboard will be reset on 31/DEC and the game will start again.

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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #71,394
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:47am Dec 8, 2013 9:47am
Quoting halkins
Re: LIVE TRADE EXPLORERS and my conclusions at the end of 2013. Hi guys I have been experimenting a lot with Trade Explorer in 2013. Not only I did it with my automatic trading, but I was following top LIVE trading accounts available in “trade” section here on FF. If I found somebody who has consistent and steady profits I added him to my “buddies” and watched his trades. I was astonished at the beginning seeing so many traders making over 500% in a single month. During the year I used to add new people and removed many “good” traders blowing out...
In line with what I have always claimed. In fact those who manage to double/triple their account in a month eventually will visit Mr. Margin call and then claim that the FX market is an unmitigated fraud.

Read this post from June 2012...

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Quid, I understand how you feel. I've been there many years ago. Looking at the charts in awe completely convinced that the system was rigged. Well, it's not so. Sure the big players with the deep pockets are the one who move the markets... not us lowly retail traders, but still, it's an open market and the only way these markets are manipulated is via central bank interventions... and even their influence is limited coz it's a losing battle for them. The move up in the Euro is quite simple to explain. There is much fear around. Not only...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,395
  • Dec 8, 2013 10:30am Dec 8, 2013 10:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes that count looks valid also, but the result is the same as we still need to come down for wave c. You have just approached it from a higher degree. Mind you, a wave 2 is usually a very deep retrace. 61.8% to 88.6%
Yes , I know. So this week is hopefully going to be interesting.
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #71,396
  • Dec 8, 2013 10:46am Dec 8, 2013 10:46am
Marc Chandler thinks the USD weakness is far from over.

Dollar Outlook
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1883..._for_1_7&ifp=0
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,397
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:16am Dec 8, 2013 11:16am
Hilsenrath: the Fed is ‘closer to winding down’ QE3
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...27ebe-35579917

...but even if the Fed tapers, will that mean that the USD will rally against its European counterparts?

“Inflation, as measured by the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditure price index, was up just 0.7% from a year earlier, well below the Fed’s 2% target.”

Maybe there is the answer... inflation. The market is buying up risk because they think the Fed will hold off tapering until inflation starts to rise. Although Hilsenrath has a different view...

He interprets Friday’s rally in US stocks, and a barely changed US 10-year yield, as a sign that the markets are getting comfortable with the prospects of a taper, noting that recently good economic news has often seen selloffs, but not on Friday:

As always, time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,398
  • Dec 8, 2013 12:11pm Dec 8, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hilsenrath: the Fed is ‘closer to winding down’ QE3 http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...27ebe-35579917 ...but even if the Fed tapers, will that mean that the USD will rally against its European counterparts? “Inflation, as measured by the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditure price index, was up just 0.7% from a year earlier, well below...
The Fed disburse funds 85 billion USD every month not for increase inflation but for trading forex.
  • #71,399
  • Dec 8, 2013 12:51pm Dec 8, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting andan
{quote} The Fed disburse funds 85 billion USD every month not for increase inflation but for trading forex.
HaHa... Good point
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,400
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:53pm Dec 8, 2013 4:53pm
Hi Everyone,

Looking at today daily chart make me wonder,
is it possible that UJ & EU was set to reach top and reverse at the same time (approx.)... What do you think ?
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