Which news events move the market | Forex Factory

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Which news events move the market

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 7, 2013 7:48am Dec 7, 2013 7:48am
Hello everyone,
I see everyday that there is high impact new on forexfactory ( red color ), but from my experience , most of them don't effect the market really as i expect from HIGH IMPACT news.
high impact for my is for example the news that were yesterday , i understand that they occure in the first friday of every month.
i'm trading 1H and higher time frames.
can you please tell me which other high impact news are occuring on every month ( i'm not trading news so that i'll be ready with closing all my position etc ... ) , but news that rrealy move the market strongly.
thank you
  • #2
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:58am Dec 7, 2013 7:58am
In fact, not only the impact (RED) is important. What makes the market to move significantly is the Actual value when released if the number is better/worse than expected.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:11am Dec 7, 2013 8:11am
So because the forecast was 12.3K and the actual was 21.6K , the market moved that much?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Can please some one tell me which new on every month are likely to give big moves in the market?
  • #4
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:14am Dec 7, 2013 8:14am
i second FerruFx. to answer your question the colors are more based on history and the meaning behind the fundamentals. nowadays it's the numbers that speak not the color
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #5
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:24am Dec 7, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Pipomagic
i second FerruFx. to answer your question the colors are more based on history and the meaning behind the fundamentals. nowadays it's the numbers that speak not the color
So what should i look for at the numbers to know if the news will move significantly the price?
  • #6
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:36am Dec 7, 2013 8:36am
Quoting interputure
{quote} So what should i look for at the numbers to know if the news will move significantly the price?
The answer is in my previous post:

"What makes the market to move significantly is the Actual value when released if the number is better/worse than expected"
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #7
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:43am Dec 7, 2013 8:43am
You don't understand my question.
I understand that what moves the price is the actual value if the nubmers are different from expected.
but each month there's some dates that people know that price will move significantly even before the news are out ( like the news that were yesterday ).
in which other dates there is news that make such a move usually?
  • #8
  • Dec 7, 2013 8:57am Dec 7, 2013 8:57am
Quoting interputure
You don't understand my question. I understand that what moves the price is the actual value if the nubmers are different from expected. but each month there's some dates that people know that price will move significantly even before the news are out ( like the news that were yesterday ). in which other dates there is news that make such a move usually?
I did understood your question. And I insist, you will know that the market will move only when the actual value is released.

Even the NFP yesterday, you can't know before if the market will move. It did move because of a better than expected number. If the actual was equal, the market would not have moved like it did.

Of course that's a general answer. There may be other factors ... but you have the big picture.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2013 9:44am Dec 7, 2013 9:44am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} I did understood your question. And I insist, you will know that the market will move only when the actual value is released. Even the NFP yesterday, you can't know before if the market will move. It did move because of a better than expected number. If the actual was equal, the market would not have moved like it did. Of course that's a general answer. There may be other factors ... but you have the big picture.
Ok , thank you!
  • #10
  • Dec 7, 2013 11:00am Dec 7, 2013 11:00am
If you wanna be the first to get the news (30 seconds before us)... you can subscribe to any paid service that provide such services... but i wouldn't recommend it since to me it's a waste of money if you don't trade the news & news releases have become so unpredictable with regards to market movement
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #11
  • Dec 7, 2013 11:09am Dec 7, 2013 11:09am
Hi interputure.


"What do we do with a hot news flash, honey
What do we do with a hot news flash, babe
What do we do with a hot news flash
We stash that flash right in the trash
Honey, trader, ba-by mine"


Great song by the way
Inserted Video
  • #12
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:17pm Dec 7, 2013 12:17pm
hi all,
Actually, not only the impact is important. What makes the market to move is the Actual value when released if the number is better/worse than the expectations.

thanks
russel
  • #13
  • Dec 7, 2013 5:53pm Dec 7, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting Pipomagic
... it's a waste of money if you don't trade the news & news releases have become so unpredictable with regards to market movement
That's so true. How many times have we seen the market going the opposite of where it should according to the news results ?!!!
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:05pm Dec 7, 2013 6:05pm
The major problem I see with trading the news are our brokers. 95%+ brokers will do everything in their power to guarantee we do not get good enough execution to profit from news.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #15
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:24am Dec 8, 2013 1:24am
I was confused when I just started trading. There is a very good book about economic indicators by Bernard Baumohi.
  • #16
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:32am Dec 8, 2013 1:32am
BTW, as a new member I am not allowed to start new thread. Anyone could help to explain the Euro movement last week against strong US economic data? I lost around 20pips there, but still I cannot understand this price movement.
  • #17
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:54am Dec 8, 2013 2:54am
Quoting interputure
Hello everyone, I see everyday that there is high impact new on forexfactory ( red color ), but from my experience , most of them don't effect the market really as i expect from HIGH IMPACT news.
You are thinking about it all wrong - news doesn't affect the market at all. The only thing that can affect the market is people buying and selling. Sometimes news events cause people to buy and sell en masse, sometimes they don't. Whether traders buy and sell on a news event depends on a few other factors, is there an even more important event on the horizon? Is a currency fundamentally strong or weak? Does this release go with an economic trend or against it? Is liquidity high or low? Are there stops clustered in the vicinity when the news hits? etc etc.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #18
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:50am Dec 8, 2013 4:50am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} The only thing that can affect the market is people buying and selling.
... That's exactly what I answered in another thread few weeks ago.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #19
  • Edited 9:39am Dec 8, 2013 9:24am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} You are thinking about it all wrong - news doesn't affect the market at all. The only thing that can affect the market is people buying and selling. Sometimes news events cause people to buy and sell en masse, sometimes they don't. Whether traders buy and sell on a news event depends on a few other factors, is there an even more important event on the horizon? Is a currency fundamentally strong or weak? Does this release go with an economic trend or against it? Is liquidity high or low? Are there stops clustered in the vicinity when the...
Someone once argued that it's not the people but the perceived demand/supply, meaning for those movements buying or selling is not necessarily the factor. the person said this thing is made to move on it's own taking in consideration what you have already alluded to. will paste the article here if i find it.

Sorry too big for me to copy it: http://www.jimdandyforex.com/holy-grail-2/ (not sure if i am breaking the rules now)

For part 1 go to the link above:

Holy Grail 2
Before we think about how we can use this ‘BLSH’ (BuyLowSellHigh) in an expert advisor. We need to think about how we could use it in real world manual trading.
Our first thought of course is that now when we come to the computer, to refresh our minds and get the big picture, we may start at the monthly charts and then click on down through the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr to the lower time frames. Now that we have done that, although we are looking at 1 square inch of the elephant, at least we know, if it runs, which way it is going to move.
Supply and Demand
You remember I talked about how that as the people bought up the $1.00 a gallon gasoline that the supply would go down and the demand would go up? It is at that point when there is more demand than supply that the price will start to rise.. In fact it may JUMP up.
When the supply of the $5,000.00 laptops is great and there is almost no demand for them, this is when the price will start to fall. Any time that supply and demand are out of balance the price will move either up or down. It is the only thing that makes price move. Read that again.
It has nothing to do with how much product is being produced or how many people want the product. It has to do with when they are NOT equal. Lots of supply and lots of demand will keep prices steady.. A small supply with a small demand will also keep prices flat. However anytime that supply exceeds demand the price will fall. If demand exceeds supply prices will rise. The self-regulating force that always makes supply and demand come back into equilibrium is price.
Now I am about to tell you something about the way that price is moved on a chart, and by whom, that you probably had not thought of.
As I said when the demand is greater than the supply, price will go up. Let me ask you this. When you go to the gas station to buy gas and the price has jumped over night, who actually controlled and raised the price? The person buying the gas or the person selling the gas? Obviously the sellers. When there is a hurricane/typhoon rumored to be brewing in the ocean and you go to the store to buy a generator and now they are twice the price that they were yesterday, who controlled and raised that price? Again, the sellers. When the price is going up it is because the seller is demanding that the buyer meet HIS price.
Now the other side of the coin. When you are selling tickets to a football game that starts in 1 hour from now you are willing to take whatever price you are offered because in 1 hour the tickets will be worthless. If you are trying to sell a Christmas tree on the day AFTER Christmas you are happy to get someone to haul it off for you for $1.00 so you won’t have to haul it. In these scenarios the price of the product is controlled and set by the buyer. When price is going down it is because the buyer is demanding that the seller meet HIS price.
Is a Bull a Buyer? or a Seller?
Now how many times have you heard people refer to the bulls and the bears running prices up and down. When the price is rising they say that “the bulls are controlling the market” or if it’s going down that “the bears are in control”?
Now I just showed you how that if the price is rising it is because that is what the sellers are demanding. The sellers are in control. Yet the world talks of the bulls driving the market up. Did you realize that apparently the ‘bulls’ are sellers? Because the sellers are definitely in control when the price is rising. If you think about it, How many times have we heard the low prices in the housing market described as a ‘buyers market’? When price is down, buyers are in control.
The truth is that price is not pushed up by demand of buyers. Price is pulled up by demand of sellers. Priced is pulled down by demand of buyers. They talk about supply and demand but really it’s demand and demand. Demand of seller pitted against demand of the buyer.. however to keep things understood they refer to the demand of the seller as ‘supply’.
Does it Take a Lot of Trades to Make a Big Move?
This is another one of those things that you know the answer to but have not really thought about. We have all seen big moves on the chart and heard the know-it-all commentators and gurus talk about the big move and how the ‘big money ‘ had to be doing a lot of buying or selling to make that kind of a move. WRONG!
Big moves are caused by big imbalances in supply and demand. Not by big lot sizes being thrown about. When you go to bed one evening and generators are $600.00 and the next morning they are $1200.00, exactly how many generators changed hands over night? NONE. However the supply and demand picture changed dramatically over night.. there was the same amount of supply but WAY more demand for the product due to an impending storm. Here is an important point. The storm may or may not come but as long as the perception is there, the change in supply or demand will be there whether it is based on reality or not.
At the same time we have heard about how unwise it is to trade on the holidays when the markets are so thin. There is not enough liquidity in the market and it may be subject to huge moves that don’t make any sense. WHAT? You mean the market moves MORE when there is LESS trading? Hmm.. I guess it’s true because it will definitely get stupid when the markets are thin. Low volume but big moves…..
What about when the market opens Monday morning with a 100 pip gap? How did that happen? There was no trading done before it opened. However the perception of the buyers and sellers changed over the weekend and when the market opened it was agreed that the price should be much different than where it was at Friday’s close.
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #20
  • Dec 9, 2013 1:19pm Dec 9, 2013 1:19pm
YOu can try bloomberg, frankly they get the feeds out real early but yes, they are expensive..
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