EurAnalysis

Dunno what means craic, but as you may have noticed, my main strength is news analysis and my biggest weakness is lousy entries and exits. I know where the pair is heading, but am weak in technicals, so actually I cant even trade short term. Learning it though (and it costs me )

US Dollar fills the NFP gap. Now time to rally????

lulz eur/USDizzle new highs. Looking to start loading up the short train near 1.40 on this big time downtrend line. Hoping we get there early next year.

Lol ok. My broker crashed platform in the second it broke highs. Facker!!!!

Look at the weekly candle if its green only trade on the buy side move to lower time frame for s/r levels intraday. If you trade against then you are countertrend trading obviously trend may change but at least monday and maybe tuesday will move in the same direction as the previous weeks trend. Thats my opinion from an intraday day perspective

Craic=Fun

We are risk on time for some high yields to rallly! GBP EUR NZD

Well, seems am going to go broke, dunno what is happening with PA, but definitely not what I would expect. Cya later guys.
edit: Yeh, that is such a pressure I couldnt imagine it. Just when I thought I know a bit what is going on, market proves me I dont .

whenever US short term rates start to move up EUR is going to get killed. today is not that day

I imagine theres billions upon billions of FX hedged positions in european equities and bonds. If the forward points start to really move in favor of USD thats going to eat into the profits they make on those bond/equity positions...

Well a break and hold below E/U 1.3630 was my signal to short E/U and G/U.
I didn't get it, so I'm flat.
I only have those two US Dollar longs which I'm not worried about.
My account exposure is now almost nothing.
We'll see what happens next week. I'm done for today.

I'll drop by later to see what's happening.

You are correct, so what happens equity markets

SP500 I see making a deeper correction (1720/30) before more up, but obviously not happening... at least not right now anyway. Might come later today, or next week.

Yep I'm flat too will see what european open brings on Monday and trade according to weekly close today. No need to expose myself today

Good weekend all!

SPX H4 Bearish Hidden Divergence... Signs of a B wave and will be followed by a C wave down.

U/CHF Perhaps in January 14, close to a good Buy deal.

Here is my view on euro:


Euro is at a clean supply zone,i would be carefoul going long from here,except if it breaks,then we may see it at the next supply zone which is around at 112

Best regards
Tim

EU is steady.

My first target is 1.0745 where I'll close 60% of my long and then 1.085x where I'll close the remaining 40% but first there I'll also watch the market sentiment after I'll take decision..

oh no the CAD short trade is going main stream now.


guess we'll get the pull back to 1.0580 now maybe

Not a great looking weekly candle forming Harpe we've tested 1.07 three times and it's yet to hold I wonder what the dollar will bring us next week not really looking for a trade in this one based on that at least I couldn't commit to the buy side next week best to leave it alone GBP looks weak I'll give an update over the weekend

Hope you are well old friend!

Good day fellow traders. Here are my thoughts for next week...

Regarding the overall market, after yesterday's BS, nothing is clear anymore on the fundamental side. This is clearly an extreme greed for yield campaign. The big players in the market seem very confident that the Fed will not taper in December, so they keep buying risky assets even if the country where they buy those assets is in some serious shit... Like the Eurozone. So, from a technical perspective, I now expect a small pullback in risk assets followed by a continuation of the risk rally. However, if the Fed tapers this month, that changes everything... or should I say "That SHOULD" change everything.

E/U: 1.3705 to 1.3715 area is resistance, plus the weekly/daily is showing a bearish divergence at the end of a cycle up. Next move should be a pullback and it will be likely of a corrective nature, so look for an ABC pattern on the H4/Daily chart. From there, it's anybody's guess. 1.3480/50/20 area seems the most likely, but in case of strong bullishness, it may only make it to 1.3550. If it is a deep correction, then 1.3160/1.3080 are possible but unlikely unless we get a taper.

G/U: Is in pretty much the same situation except that it has already started correcting down. Next target (if we clear 1.6340 will be 100 pips lower at 1.6240 area. There is a slight possibility for a deeper correction to 1.6080/40 area, but after that as long as we do not have taper, the target will be up. How far up will depend on how far down we go first, so for now it is not even worth guessing. If we get a taper, then 1.55xx is still in the cards.

Yen (JPY) major crosses: I'm not even going to bother trying to read these pairs. They are all seriously overbought technically but the greed is pushing them higher. Trading these pairs is like playing wheel of fortune. You could hit it big, but it will be very frustrating. For me it is not efficient use of time. If one wants to try and ride the wave of greed, then the best approach is to place a buy at the next swing low support with a tight stop and let it play out. If it fails, try and try again until it sticks. Hopefully in the end you'll have more green pips than red ones... but be careful of Mr. Taper. He could hurt you.

Trade well and Cheers.