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  • #28,041
  • Dec 6, 2013 10:12am Dec 6, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Lane
{quote} Ok, I see. I just found it a bit strange to see "every" pair including CHF, AUD, NZD jumping against the JPY. I thought that, for example, big US news would impact only USD and CAD pairs, the other currencies much less or not at all, but now that this happened I just imagined there was something specific to know out there that I don't, so I asked. Thanks.
My explanation for other currencies jumping on the back of the USD increase would be that by the law of arbitrage, if they didnt then the 'big boys' will jump in and take advantage. For example, if the USD/yen cross increases then the Yen decreases in value, and if the yen crosses not involving the USD (GY/EY/AY) dont increase then big money will take advantage of the Yens different value using 2 different currencies as the cross.

eg if UY = 100, GU = 150, then that means GY (should) = 1.50, but if actual GY is 1.30 ,but if the actual GY on the markets doesn't increase in value along with the UY/GU after the news releases then big institutions will buy the GY as its corresponding value on the markets is less than it should be according to the UY/GU value, and this will then drive the GY price up.

The law of arbitrage I believe its called.

I probably didn't explain it very well, but google financial arbitrage and I am sure plenty of website will have info about it.


irishtoffy
  • #28,042
  • Edited 10:31am Dec 6, 2013 10:15am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting lastingwell
My best trade of the week was yesterday on EN. To be completely open I have been experimenting with the m5 chart with the h1 tdi and h4 tdi on it just to see how it would feel. I suppose its a bit like Emmanuel drilling down to the lower timeframes after getting a higher timeframe signal but more compact. Anyway, I don't think I would have taken it solely looking at H1 which is the reason I'm showing it. +100 pips. First chart is H1 and second chart is M5 {image} {image}
Beautiful trades !!
Have you tried smoother MTF TDI?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post4622169

Isn't the original one lagging in signal?
Smoother one looks better for backtesting....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #28,043
  • Dec 6, 2013 10:17am Dec 6, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Lane
{quote} Ok, I see. I just found it a bit strange to see "every" pair including CHF, AUD, NZD jumping against the JPY. I thought that, for example, big US news would impact only USD and CAD pairs, the other currencies much less or not at all, but now that this happened I just imagined there was something specific to know out there that I don't, so I asked. Thanks.
Lane
Maybe this is what cause the yen to be weaker "Japan's cabinet adopted a 18.6 trillion yen stimulus package on Thursday with the aim of softening the blow of the upcoming consumption tax increase to the economy."
  • #28,044
  • Dec 6, 2013 10:26am Dec 6, 2013 10:26am
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} I probably didn't explain it very well...

I think you've nailed it sir!!!
  • #28,045
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:39am Dec 6, 2013 11:39am
I have been reading the posts here and working on learning this trading system. I prefer the 4H time frames and see that this thread has had a long life to it. That makes me think it has some credibility and profitability to it. Who would stay with a system that doesn't? I have begun demo trading and will stay with that for a while until I am comfortable that it is producing consistent profits. Questions will come soon I'm sure and for now I am following the simple trading steps of "green crossover" and support/resistance areas. Personally the simpler the better for me. It seems the more indicators and complicated it gets does nothing to increase my profits.

Hopefully I can soon add to the conversation here and will post my charts (good and bad) when I take the trades.

Till then have a good weekend everyone. Attached are the two trades I took today.
EUR/USD + 22
EUR/JPY + 43

I closed both before NFP news came out just to stay safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.png Size: 23 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 28 KB


Harry
  • #28,046
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:51am Dec 6, 2013 11:51am
Mr Emmanuel

Is it possible to quantify,when one search for potential setups what one should look for i.e 1. S/R in 1hr tf, TDI cross over in 4hr tf, 2. Markets opening/closing, 3. Best pairs, 4. Weekly open/close, 5. Important news schedule? What else? (Hope its not a dumb question,trading seems to be subjective)

Thanks and regards

Roy.
  • #28,047
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:45pm Dec 6, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting lastingwell
My best trade of the week was yesterday on EN. To be completely open I have been experimenting with the m5 chart with the h1 tdi and h4 tdi on it just to see how it would feel. I suppose its a bit like Emmanuel drilling down to the lower timeframes after getting a higher timeframe signal but more compact. Anyway, I don't think I would have taken it solely looking at H1 which is the reason I'm showing it. +100 pips. First chart is H1 and second chart is M5 {image} {image}
I have been practicing the same this week on entering the H1 trades from M5 chart, now if a see a setup forming on the H1, I can drill down to M5 to get the best entry and so on
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #28,048
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:02pm Dec 6, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} My explanation for other currencies jumping on the back of the USD increase would be that by the law of arbitrage, if they didnt then the 'big boys' will jump in and take advantage. For example, if the USD/yen cross increases then the Yen decreases in value, and if the yen crosses not involving the USD (GY/EY/AY) dont increase then big money will take advantage of the Yens different value using 2 different currencies as the cross. eg if UY = 100, GU = 150, then that means GY (should) = 1.50, but if actual GY is 1.30 ,but if the actual GY...
Ah! That makes a lot of sense, I'll keep that in mind next time something similar happens. Thanks mate
  • #28,049
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:10pm Dec 6, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting airbeat
I have been reading the posts here and working on learning this trading system. I prefer the 4H time frames and see that this thread has had a long life to it. That makes me think it has some credibility and profitability to it. Who would stay with a system that doesn't? I have begun demo trading and will stay with that for a while until I am comfortable that it is producing consistent profits. Questions will come soon I'm sure and for now I am following the simple trading steps of "green crossover" and support/resistance areas. Personally the simpler...
The thing is, the general rules are pretty simple, however for a total beginner not knowing anything about PA and SR (the basics) it can be pretty frustrating. But even for total beginners it gets much easier after backtesting, demo trading, reading the thread.. nothing fancy is really necessary.

The trick is filtering out those BAD trades. I speak from my experience - as a beginner you take all kinds of signals. You can make very good trades that make you think you're something special, but the other week you get so many small losses that not even your huge profits can cover. The key is to categorize trades, entries, exits and learn from mistakes what signals are bad, or even better, take just the best signals.
  • #28,050
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:20pm Dec 6, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Beautiful trades !! Have you tried smoother MTF TDI? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post4622169 Isn't the original one lagging in signal? Smoother one looks better for backtesting....
Thank you Heispark I use the one Xaphod told me to use when I asked about wanting to see the market baseline, so I have carried on using it. I actually like the steps as I seem to be able to read those better than looking at the angle of the line. I suppose its really what we "see" better ourselves really and a matter of personal preference. It doesn't lag even a little bit though I've checked that thoroughly.
  • #28,051
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:31pm Dec 6, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} My explanation for other currencies jumping on the back of the USD increase would be that by the law of arbitrage, ......it. irishtoffy
irishtoffy,lane,

just my thought - I'm not a pro for that and astonished for myself looking at this behaviour - the real big money cannot enter only for arbitrage reasons in just some few seconds up to several minutes.

This time a lot of non-USD-pairs move about 70-80 pips in less then 1/2 minute, with nearly no chances to get clear defined quotes to enter/exit greater positions.

When they want to enter with huge assets they must spread out their transcations over several hours, even not to push the market against their goals.

a good weekend to all
fxfox
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,052
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:43pm Dec 6, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting PMartinho
{quote} I think you've nailed it sir!!!
Pmartinho,
perhaps I misunderstood your quote, but are you just here to offend or to be conductive to this thread? It seems the first one.
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #28,053
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:29pm Dec 6, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting Lane
{quote} The key is to categorize trades, entries, exits and learn from mistakes what signals are bad, or even better, take just the best signals.
Good advice Lane and I will be paying special attention to all my trades. Entries, exits, and signals for both. Keeping a journal is essential. I will be posting my trades, good and bad, and look forward to constructive analysis here on the thread.
  • #28,054
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:55pm Dec 6, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Thank you Heispark I use the one Xaphod told me to use when I asked about wanting to see the market baseline, so I have carried on using it. I actually like the steps as I seem to be able to read those better than looking at the angle of the line. I suppose its really what we "see" better ourselves really and a matter of personal preference. It doesn't lag even a little bit though I've checked that thoroughly.
Thank you very much for your feedback. I am very much interested in your approach. Please post your tradings occasionally when you are not busy.
Have a nice weekend, Lastingwell.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #28,055
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:21pm Dec 6, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting Lane
{quote} The thing is, the general rules are pretty simple, however for a total beginner not knowing anything about PA and SR (the basics) it can be pretty frustrating. But even for total beginners it gets much easier after backtesting, demo trading, reading the thread.. nothing fancy is really necessary. The trick is filtering out those BAD trades. I speak from my experience - as a beginner you take all kinds of signals. You can make very good trades that make you think you're something special, but the other week you get so many small losses that...
To the point exactly, sticking to one strategy and try to improve it by back testing and forward testing along reading PA and learning FX would definitely pay off in the long run, it would sure be frustrating at the beginning, and then what amm lets just change the strategy, and boom the cycles never ends, so the key is sticking with one proved strategy, and then walk steps until becoming successful trader

Also there's a note that I would like to share about TDI indicator, since I started trading a year ago, I came across Xman thread and started using this strategy with TDI, I didn't investigate more about the indicator, so continued trading with TDI, after 1 year I keep hearing members talk about TDI ie Trader Dynamic Index and thought what is the difference between the indi I use and the one most of the members use, as I continue investigating I found with the help of ARTE and WDays where we trade in a small group that the indi I have been using for 1 year is TDI_RT which updates itself while price action moves live and this updating in my experience produce a lots of false crosses which in case of Trader Dynamic Index does not frequently happens since it most likely to cross when new candle forms

Just my 2 cents
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #28,056
  • Edited 1:52am Dec 7, 2013 1:10am | Edited 1:52am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} To the point exactly, sticking to one strategy and try to improve it by back testing and forward testing along reading PA and learning FX would definitely pay off in the long run, it would sure be frustrating at the beginning, and then what amm lets just change the strategy, and boom the cycles never ends, so the key is sticking with one proved strategy, and then walk steps until becoming successful trader Also there's a note that I would like to share about TDI indicator, since I started trading a year ago, I came across Xman thread and...
Good post I also agree especially with traders new to the TDI they should not use the TDI_RT its too tempting to go in half way through a candle because its crossed over in realtime only to find at the beginning of the next candle its uncrossed itself. PHX62 has pointed that out for a very long time and with his success its best to listen to him With the strategy I am currently using on the smaller timeframes, the mtf TDI is based on the TDI_RT and I have to be very careful to look at where the 1hr TDI is at the open of the new 1hr candle and only take that into account with any trades. What it is useful for though with the strategy I'm using is in the case of the h4 tdi if the H1 had a good cross but the h4 tdi isn't yet moving up I will wait until it does in realtime to go in so its very useful for that - or vice versa - good cross on H4 at the beginning of its candle but h1 not crossed up.
  • #28,057
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:52am Dec 7, 2013 2:52am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Good post I also agree especially with traders new to the TDI they should not use the TDI_RT its too tempting to go in half way through a candle because its crossed over in realtime only to find at the beginning of the next candle its uncrossed itself.
PHX62 has pointed that out for a very long time and with his success its best to listen to him With the strategy I am currently using on the smaller timeframes, the mtf TDI is based on the TDI_RT and I have to be very careful to look at where the 1hr TDI is at the open of the new 1hr...
Hi Lastinwell, TDI RT will not repaint after candle is closed, and we until have candle closed should not take any action ... am I right?
The problem is, traders are lying on TDI crosses not on the price action where TDI has to only confirm a price action. Price always comes first and indicator later so let us rely more on PASR and confirm this with indicator not other way round....
PHX62 is a great trader and his level to understanding the market is so high, that he do not need TDI at all, and I am sure if he throws TDI away still will be taking same trades...

Have nice weekend
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #28,058
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:04am Dec 7, 2013 6:04am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} Hi Lastinwell, TDI RT will not repaint after candle is closed, and we until have candle closed should not take any action ... am I right? The problem is, traders are lying on TDI crosses not on the price action where TDI has to only confirm a price action. Price always comes first and indicator later so let us rely more on PASR and confirm this with indicator not other way round.... PHX62 is a great trader and his level to understanding the market is so high, that he do not need TDI at all, and I am sure if he throws TDI away still will...
I agree it doesn't repaint after the candle has closed my point was with newer traders they will open their chart half way through an h1 or h4 candle, see the tdi_rt has crossed and it might have only just crossed up, it might not have been there at the beginning of the candle.

Someone questioned phx62 the other week about whether his trades were earlier than they should have been and he pointed out that he goes in when the tdi has crossed at the open of that candle, which is what I had read about in the pdfs about the way he trades. It is also what eelfranz himself says at the very beginning of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4569617 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4569617
Quote
We Enter a trade when green crosses red on the TDI at the beginning of that candle...
Yes phx62 is a great trader anyway, with or without the TDI I suspect, but since I started emulating the way he trades and going in if the cross happens when the candle opens, also of course taking into account price action, s/r etc the trades have gone so so much better, and there are many instances in phx's pdf where there is some great PA at major support or resistance but he hasn't gone in because the tdi doesn't look like its even remotely going to cross.
  • #28,059
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:15am Dec 7, 2013 6:15am
I personally had a real tough time understanding how the TDI works to confirm and not be our leading indicator telling us to enter for when a setup occurs; the truth seems to be somewhere in the middle, I have 6 pairs that I monitor, at the close of each hourly candle I look for a TDI cross, if there is one I'd look for an entry point or dismiss it if the market I am watching is under consolidation and isnt going anywhere... I'm not sure if I'm interpreting what has been said previously in a right way, but it seems to keep me from a good bunch of bad trades...
  • #28,060
  • Edited Dec 8, 2013 7:27am Dec 7, 2013 10:22am | Edited Dec 8, 2013 7:27am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote}TDI ie Trader Dynamic Index and thought what is the difference between the indi I use and the one most of the members use, as I continue investigating I found with the help of ARTE and WDays where we trade in a small group that the indi I have been using for 1 year is TDI_RT which updates itself while price action moves live and this updating in my experience produce a lots of false crosses which in case of Trader Dynamic Index does not frequently happens since it most likely to cross when new candle forms Just my 2 cents
Just dropping by and decided to chime in on a topic that has been covered time and again.

One should be able to tell the difference between an open candle and a closed candle. Ditto for any indicator based upon said candles. How can one have the candles updating without having the indicators update? Furthermore, with moderate amount of experience one should be able to tell what the indicator will/should be doing by looking at the price action. For example, if there is a large bull candle, the indicator will behave in a particular manner and if it is not reacting as expected, it is because there is a fault in the indicator and not because the indicator has some hidden info.

Quote
which in case of Trader Dynamic Index does not frequently happens since it most likely to cross when new candle forms Just my 2 cents

Most likely. Ie, it will behave irrationally (oops! that downward hook suddenly turned into an upward cross). And sometimes the chart just does not look right and when you refresh the chart, your TDI cross simply disappears (Hmm! price is moving up. Why do I have a downward hook on the tdi?). Is it not better to learn to read the chart correctly than to depend on an indicator that may or may not update dependent on the chance that the server requests it redraws more candles than usual? Coin toss?

Ref
Bug in TDI?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post4621048

TDI Repainted:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4621052

TDI moving contrary to PA. Not really possible. Will repaint on close of candle at best or not until a manual chart refresh at worst:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post4760076
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5123646

Edit: For clarity.
Most indicators update in real time. The candles are updating continuously. The moving averages are updating continuously. The Stochastic is updating continuously. Why should the TDI not update continuously, and why would it be any more difficult to read than the other indicators?
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