Price Action and Trading Discussion

Oh bugger, it's not is it? Forgot about that No wonder price is a bit crazy.

Well the 1.36000 RN area was the next logical resistance area, no surprise that it stalled price. Not much resistance above 1.36000 if it can manage to break and hold to the upside, 1.37000 ish would be the next level.

We could simply see price fall into range of 1.3400 to 1.3600

This pair might be a little more immune to all the high impact announcements this week. I've been waiting for this setup and it looks like something might happen soon.

Hi Guys,

I have been away most of this week for work, only getting my first look at the charts now for the week.

Hope you have all been picking up some pips.

I'd like to find out how others handle trading through news or not. Do you close your trades and dive for cover every time there is a high impact announcement? Do you not open any trades close to announcements even if you have a red hot setup? So how many times have you missed the opportunity of a red hot trade just because there was an announcement due and then the announcement caused nothing? I know it's all about probabilities; if you ignore announcements, you will get hit big time some of the time, but then you might also bank a lot otherwise too.

I have no idea which is better. I am going to do an experiment on 2 accounts, same trades on both, but on one I will ignore all the news and the other, cower whenever there is a high impact announcement looming - do what I have been doing, move stops or close trades if I have any still open.

Saying that though, I have a feeling that the ignore announcements account will do better. Say with any announcement, if there is big movement, there is a 50/50 chance it will go my way. Then there are many announcements where nothing much happens. It is on those trades I will profit, because I would have otherwise missed them.

Thoughts?

I trade D1, so, I ignore the news, but sometimes it is good to know about.

I was waiting for the move down as well, but some news put it away for a while

AUD/CHF shows good intention for the rally down.

I have that going . AUDJPY will be a violent drop early next week, ready and waiting.

Well, on my ignore news experiment, I had 5 trades which all survived NFP. They bounced around for a bit and 4 out of the 5 are currently well positive. I'll close the lot tonight. If I can survive NFP then....

It looks like AUD is going down all over, but I count on AUD/JPY, AUD/USD and AUD/CH

Yes, it will do eventually, but it's putting up a good fight. CAD and USD are weaker and Euro is strong across the board.

Hi everyone. New member here so please let me know if this is in the wrong thread or if anyone feels like I'm hijacking anything.

Been trading for a good number of years now, focusing on Price Action. Currently manage a few personal + a couple dozen client accounts.

A few setups I've been watching and trading over the last week. These are just new charts and charts from the last few days, I'll be adding more up to date and live ones as they appear (although my junior member status may delay them somewhat):

AUDUSD
Been selling this since the hard rejection around 9700 of the weekly/monthly pivot at seen on the Weekly chart (blue area). Added in further with the larger HNS break. I regret not adding in more as I was watching for a neckline retest, which is still possible. Cashed in most of my shorts at the 9000 touch on Friday for tidy profit.

I've been buying into (while scalping short) over the last few sessions due to the bullish falling wedge + divergence, and it paid off after the NFPs.
There's still the possibility of a retest of the yearly lows so I'm keeping a few of the previous shorts on hand.

Watching action closely and taking profit at each major falling trendline.
In a perfect scenario I'd hold until at least the HNS neckline and be looking for rejection signals of that area to start selling again.






GBPUSD
Sterling has been sitting in this bull flag over the last few sessions and I'm in it long. Have been scalping short with the strong setups but I'm still holding onto my Buys as long as we're within this flag. We've broken down and restested off this first big trendline (blue) which I'm not liking, but we remain somewhat supported by a couple other levels drawn out.
We also have some hidden bullish divergence coming in from at least the 6hour (360m). We may still see further bearish action down to the 6250 long term pivot area. If it breaks this I'll have to swallow my pride and take the loss. Otherwise, my first target up is 6500.




EURAUD
Just got out of a bunch of longs after a textbook buy setup on the daily a few weeks ago, for around +1000 (triple bottom, rejection candle + divergence).
We've been divergening bearishly while the price has been rising over the last few sessions, within a big rising bear wedge so I'm in with a few sells.
Nice rejection candles off of the top trendline/wedge-top.
The daily has also printed nicely from friday/thursday with 2x shooting stars.



EURUSD
The Euro finally peeked back within the larger daily bear channel last week. I've been sitting long on this since the first break (that first negative rates news scare), awaiting the retest, but the action along the lines was hinting long, especially if you look on the weekly.
Continuing to hold the longs, as if we get a sustained hold above 3700 through Monday, 14000 min (161 extension) looks likely.

GBPAUD
The GBPAUD's larger H4 IHNS setup has played out for the full 100% head extension of +700 pips.

Currently in short with the previous large h4 shooting star off of the descending trendline (from Friday).


We've got the HNS neckline break now and I'll be looking to add another short should we come up and have a confirmation of a retest of the neckline.
My current bullish GBPUSD and AUDUSD exposure also supports this position. The setup is clean so I'm not overly worried about extended my risk past the 2 majors into this cross.


[Sorry, ForexFactory not allowing me to add any more attachments due to exceeded attachment quota?]
Link to chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hiv6dhw1c9...d-240-9-12.png

Thank you for the posts, Su and welcome to the thread. It is pretty quite here, no drama

Hi Vitali, thanks for the welcome messages.

I didn't realise being a junior member would be so limiting, I had a couple 30-40 pips calls earlier but they didn't get approved, I guess charts only here.

AUDCHF
Looking to be forming a nice and clean bullish wedge here with bullish divergence.

I'll be looking to get in long heavy on the retest should price break to the upside of this wedge.

Link to chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/i2ghnff9ud...audchf-120.png

AUD/CHF: weekly chart shows that the price is tending to cover huge gap from August, 2011, I think it should be good rebound. H4 chart shows rounding buttom. We gotta wait for the right price action in this case.

Good spotting with the AUDCHF support level Vitali.

EURNZD
A couple of options here. A possible Head and Shoulders...its not pretty but I've seen a lot worse.

In my opinion is that it's the obscure ones that have a better chance of playing out. We also have the potential triangle which could push us higher. This is why its imperative to wait for a solid break and retest of the pattern. 'm in a long off the H4 rejection (seen as railroads here on the H2) of the bottom trend line/neckline and I'll be looking to either add or flip positions depending on the break.

Neckline rejections tend to be super strong (which is why entering right on the HNS break is so dangerous) so I'll be keeping this chart open for a while.

Link to chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/id0onwoc75...radingview.png

Does anyone know how many posts I need before I can start adding attachments again? Thanks.

EURAUD

In hindsight should've just taken the 40 pips (at its peak) with my latest entry from this morning. It wasn't a clean bounce off the near-term trendline (blue) but it was a bounce nonetheless and I'm out of the newest short at +2 (+ve stop).

I was able to scalp back another +15 on the way back up, and price is currently retesting the broken smaller bear wedge (orange lines within the red triangle), printing a nice and clean little H1 star and I'm in with another couple shorts at about 5108.

Apologies for the messy chart, but there are quite a few different shapes forming on top of each other. Very difficult to draw out without overlaying everything.

First major targets marked out on the chart at the first pivot area near the 4800 mark.

Link to chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qg7g6jcbw...dingview-1.png

EUR/GBP: it is "double top" on H4+ Monday gap is covered, I put small pending order. By the way, the Risk/Reward ratio is good.