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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #3,921
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:08am Nov 26, 2013 6:08am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I haven't been trading that long, manually about 18 months. I have been profitable for most months this year, although I have tried a few things. I started off using 1:1 as anything less was unacceptable to me - I had to prove that I could do better than a coin flip and be able to see that easily. I then tried more, up to about 1:4 and found that my odds of getting to my target seemed to decrease exponentially! Of course, this is hard to quantify and I welcome anyone who could prove or disprove this. We all have our strengths and weaknesses....
Got ya. Interesting i will observe just out of curiosity for myself if that kind of RR would yield me a better profit. Good luck
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,922
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:13am Nov 26, 2013 6:13am
Hi Guys,

Some interesting points over the last few posts.

The one thing that I have always said is that what ever you do and it is profitable and it works for you then absolutely keep doing it.

As far as probability goes, it is simply what trading is all about.... what is the most probable outcome.

As far as R:R I personally dont pay too much attention to it and I certainly will not base my trade decisions around wether or not certain R:R is evident.

A bit like Jen I have the opinion about "being more exposed to crap"..... I simply like to set my target and stick to it. Why be concerned about achieving a certain R:R if that puts your target in no mans land with no logical reason for the target being there.

I think the markets show time and time again, that certain patterns have a high probability of repeating themselves, and that horizontal support and resistance areas have and most likely always will play a significant part in price reactions.

As far as I am concerned, position sizing and risk management are the key fundamental elements that you need to understand within the trading world. If you do not understand position sizing and risk management then you absolutely should not be trading on a live account.

What works for one will may not work for another, one trader may be very comfortable trading a 5 min chart, others may only trade daily.

Plan your trade.... Trade your plan......
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,923
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:24am Nov 26, 2013 6:24am
Quoting Jexter
I'm fairly new at this, and I've been wondering if TA, and especially price action, is valid on the higher time frames. For example, on the following weekly snapshot of the USDJPY, there is a triangle/pennant shape and a recent breakout (on a nice bullish pinbar, no less) with a lot of upside. However, as I understand it, pennant = consolidation period (correct me if I'm wrong!). Can a consolidation period really last over 8-9 months as is the case here? {image} Zooming out further to the monthly, the breakout from the pennant should in theory move...
Hi Jexter,

I think that is some pretty good analysis there of the chart in question. There is also a trend line from the monthly that could come into play. The 104 ish area has proven to be a significant area in the longer term. Indeed a pennant or a triangle can generally indicate a continuation play. How long that takes to play out who really knows all we can do is watch what price does and react accordingly to our trading plans.

I tend not to get too caught up in looking at too many time frames for analysis, a quick visual on longer term S & R and usually base my decisions on what I see on the particular time frame I am trading from.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,924
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:26am Nov 26, 2013 6:26am
Quoting jen101
{quote} If you are profitable then % risk is pretty irrelevant. You can risk more on a small account or less on a bigger account; it's the same thing. If you are not profitable, then risking less just means you will die a slower death. I have tried a lot of R:R and have gone back to 1:1. Clearly your chances of failure increases the further away your target, but I don't believe it is linearly proportional to you R:R. I think your chance of failure is more likely exponentially higher the further away your target. I have probably exhausted my setups...
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,925
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:56am Nov 26, 2013 6:56am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Bugger, all stops got hit. Still netted 90 pips though.
Quoting FxSaint
{quote} nevertheless good results. ;-)
Agreed
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,926
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:58am Nov 26, 2013 7:58am
Quoting pipsane
EURUSD after dramatic move down last Wednesday came back up quite fast as well. That strongly suggests desire to go higher. Levels to watch are: 1.3560 (50% retracement) – last week’s highs (up to 1.3575) – break of those will open the way towards 1.3650 – 1.3700. 1.3490 – break of this level to the downside may suggest further fall towards 1.3300. Watch price action at 1.3520 to open long position. At 1.3560-75 zone look for shorts, but if that level will not hold look for long on retracement to this zone. Similar situation at 1.3490 – 1.3500....
I agree with you (this time ). EURUSD not doing much at the moment because both are pretty strong, but I think EUR may win the battle eventually. Worth a trade if we see a convincing upward break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,927
  • Nov 26, 2013 8:40am Nov 26, 2013 8:40am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I agree with you (this time ). EURUSD not doing much at the moment because both are pretty strong, but I think EUR may win the battle eventually. Worth a trade if we see a convincing upward break. {image}
EURUSD didn't have power to go up in the morning, but doesn't want to go down either. That is another reminder to play reaction, not anticipation - psychologicaly easier It wouldn't be wierd to see consolidation 1.3490-1.3570
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,928
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:03am Nov 26, 2013 9:03am
Quoting pipsane
{quote} EURUSD didn't have power to go up in the morning, but doesn't want to go down either. That is another reminder to play reaction, not anticipation - psychologicaly easier It wouldn't be wierd to see consolidation 1.3490-1.3570
I think so. I can't see this pair going very far in the near future. I am currently buying both USD and EUR. AUD is weak, so going places
  • #3,929
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:46am Nov 27, 2013 1:46am
nice entry on EURUSD right now towards 1.3700
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,930
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:05am Nov 27, 2013 3:05am
Quoting pipsane
nice entry on EURUSD right now towards 1.3700
Not yet . The dollar looked like it was running out of steam late yesterday, but has got a second wind this morning. If there is a close tonight above 1.3580 then perhaps, ideally above 1.3600 and will look for entry opportunities tomorrow.

Saying that I think it will happen. I have EURCAD on the go - going for a hat trick on this particular trend lol. I've cashed in twice already, entries circled. Anyhow, it's a free trade. Have 4 of those now (I know, despite what I've said previously, I've changed my mind, now that I'm staking more.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,931
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:54am Nov 27, 2013 3:54am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Not yet . The dollar looked like it was running out of steam late yesterday, but has got a second wind this morning. If there is a close tonight above 1.3580 then perhaps, ideally above 1.3600 and will look for entry opportunities tomorrow. Saying that I think it will happen. I have EURCAD on the go - going for a hat trick on this particular trend lol. I've cashed in twice already, entries circled. Anyhow, it's a free trade. Have 4 of those now (I know, despite what I've said previously, I've changed my mind, now that I'm staking more.)...
True that you may get another chance to enter, especially if you have more loose SL. When it comes to precise entry (BO - retracement - entry) with tighter SL I consider it perfect entry - like from the book
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,932
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:26am Nov 27, 2013 4:26am
EURUSD Daily:

Managing to hold above the support level so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,933
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:15am Nov 27, 2013 5:15am
I think GBPUSD would be a better trade. The pound is stronger than the euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,934
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:32am Nov 27, 2013 5:32am
Anyway not today . Too many US announcements due.
  • #3,935
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:56am Nov 27, 2013 5:56am
Quoting jen101
Anyway not today . Too many US announcements due.
Good to see your keeping an eye on them
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #3,936
  • Nov 27, 2013 6:08am Nov 27, 2013 6:08am
EURGBP 4 Hourly:

Short position taken, and position closed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 4 Hourly TP.jpg Size: 149 KB
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  • #3,937
  • Nov 27, 2013 6:20am Nov 27, 2013 6:20am
Quoting DarkWolF
EURGBP 4 Hourly: Short position taken, and position closed. {image} {image}
Perfect.
  • #3,938
  • Nov 27, 2013 6:47am Nov 27, 2013 6:47am
Just had a kerching moment myself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,939
  • Nov 27, 2013 12:07pm Nov 27, 2013 12:07pm
I'm not convinced the dollar is beaten yet. Here's a potential setup for tomorrow if the price holds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.PNG Size: 74 KB
  • #3,940
  • Nov 28, 2013 3:17am Nov 28, 2013 3:17am
Happy Thanksgiving = not much going on on FX market.
Still bullish above 1.3560 and 1.3490. Breaking 1.3560 to the downside will start make me think about shorts again.
Market indecision = wait for visible adventage - and I don't see it on EURUSD now, not yet
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
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