EURUSD

your last one says 1.42 which I don't think is possible in near term. I don't rule out 1.38

i think it just shows that ecb has to fight the fed and boj combined together. not an easy task for the ecb

I think this is it. We are going to have the final euro bears capitulation.
This will go above 1.38 again

when did euro reach 1.36965??????????????

I don't know. Anything is possible, it's a little bit of a stretch right now, yeah... What can I say.. As long as a plan is good, you follow it.. And when it gets invalidated, you scrap it and make another one..

not these....earlier this year you had an indicator that forecast patterns and they seem to work pretty darn well

I am short now. I think to risk 40 pips today is not an issue. if it gets sold before the fix momentum will be gone

hi sugarpink

To a certain extent tapering is basically priced in. Its been talked about for so long that its not really that much of an unknown anymore. Whats more important here is short end interest rates. When tapering was initally talked about short term interest rates spike along with long term rates. The Fed didnt like this because they see normal fed funds policy as totally separate from QE which affects long term rates.

Initially the market perceived tapering as 'general tightening' and short end treasury rates and euro dollar contracts began to price in rate hikes as early as December 2014. The remarkable job by the Fed the last 3 months has been effectively communicating that the short end policy is COMPLETELY separate from long end QE policy, first rate hikes are now priced into the 2nd half of 2015. Thats how you get long term rates rising, but EURUSD never moves lower because the short end rates are what matter on this pair.

Until theres like insanely good data, the USD will probably remain under pressure from EUR. The only other alternative is data remains decent for long enough for the Fed to completely end QE and then the short end hikes will come back into the picture. Easier to just sell JPY, because at this point the Japanese can buy fixed income much more aggressively that they did over the summer because now tapering is already priced into long term interest rates, and its the long term bonds that the Japanese like to buy.

Sadly, whenever the Fed hikes short end rates the federal buget will undoubtedly collapse as there are trillions of the US debt funded by 3 months to 2 year bills that all yield under 0.30%... 3 month paper goes at like 1 basis point or even negative rates some times. Crazy to think it can EVER go back to 1% short term rates and taxes wouldnt have to be increased drastically to pay interest.

dxy=aggressive bull season is starting here.

I like your optimism . one selloff day will surely come before christmas. market has to take out many attila's

That wasn't me... Was it? I don't use any indicators, and I really don't remember one for price patterns..

china must be playing a big role is usd bear sentiment , last week they said they want a strong euro,
is posible than china has more power over the USD than the Fed itself.

Volatility is lost now - move is over.

You're looking at it the wrong way... It'll drop when there will be no bears left.

sure there was a big stop loss massacre today, many bears were hurted badly, looked like the perfect trade.

there was more money involved in yesterday move to get this shit above 3650.

one spike down, one spike up, and still at 3660 and what now?

sticking close to yesterday highs - more north to come imo

right. best is to wait for reaction, and then take the move after that.. the reaction will tell a story. probably none of them will happen today.