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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,301
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:25am Dec 5, 2013 10:25am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} I have 1.08 as a weekly Fib level well it may be just under it However the weekly candle currently forming doesnt exactly inspire me to go long see how tomorrow plays out but we may have got our rejection at 1.07 and thats our high. Time will tell indeed
If we have topped, then we're headed for 1.04xx zone before any more possible upside.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,302
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:31am Dec 5, 2013 11:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX - SSI- Trading Crowds Selling Aggressively into Euro and JPY Gains.png Size: 176 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,303
  • Dec 5, 2013 12:07pm Dec 5, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{image}
Omg no, am doomed .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,304
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:06pm Dec 5, 2013 1:06pm
I find it strange that the USD has sold off versus every other currency almost, right after the good claims and gdp data.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,305
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:26pm Dec 5, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Citiboy
I find it strange that the USD has sold off versus every other currency almost, right after the good claims and gdp data.
It's all about the yield curve adjustments in the US Treasury markets as they prepare for tapering. Call it a kneejerk reaction.
If we see a 200K + number tomorrow, the USD should fly. Notice I said "should". :nerd:

ADD: The above is assuming that the UE rate also ticks down to 7.2%, otherwise it's going to be a huge mess.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,306
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:29pm Dec 5, 2013 2:29pm
Think best take away from Draghi was that he wont be strong armed into easing by the media or strategists. He can just keep saying its all good for now. The markets will need to show signs of stress first. That stress will be provided by strong NFP, I am hoping it will be 220k+.

Deflation not the threat, tapering is the threat.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,307
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:42am Dec 6, 2013 5:42am
Quoting Citiboy
Think best take away from Draghi was that he wont be strong armed into easing by the media or strategists. He can just keep saying its all good for now. The markets will need to show signs of stress first. That stress will be provided by strong NFP, I am hoping it will be 220k+. Deflation not the threat, tapering is the threat.
Actually they are both threats, but I agree taper is a bigger threat; specifically to periphery sov bonds.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,308
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:44am Dec 6, 2013 5:44am
ECB’s Nowotny says EZ recession is over
inflation expectations stable
no need for further action
says every EZ country apart from Cyprus expected to grow next year
fiscal and monetary policy must give growth a chance
EZ competitveness assured despite Euro’s rise
says latest US growth data very positive

Yippeee. Bring out the dancing girls. Pop the champagne corks. It's time to party
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,309
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:48am Dec 6, 2013 5:48am
I think you have read it as well, it was like three weeks ago in TTMYGH, but in case you did not, there was Ambrose Evans Pritchard analyzing Citibanks call:
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Italy will bounce along in near-permanent recession with growth of 0.1pc in 2014, zero in 2015, and 0.2pc in 2016. The debt will punch above 140pc of GDP, beyond the point of no return for a country with no economic growth or sovereign currency. Portugal is in an even worse state, with growth of: 0.6pc, 0.0pc, 1.0pc, over the next three years, with debt hitting 149pc of GDP by 2015, and unemployment rising again to 18.3pc. Greece continues to be a catastroph.... economy will contract by a further 2.9pc in 2014, and 1.4pc in 2015, pushing unemployment...
Whole article here.
Edit: funny stuff. Nowotny just goes along yesterdays Draghis speech. And we all saw that. I picked out this little thought I focus on from his speech. Growth in M3 money supply was caused by inflow of foreign capital, seeking short term safe haven in banking sector which just received cut, and not because companies would be lending and waking up.
edit: btw, would appreciate hint how the heck to survive this SL hunt pre data release. We´ve already broken high, lol. I dont want to pay for surviving, but if we start release this high, my SL could get easily hit by spikey.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,310
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:56am Dec 6, 2013 5:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
btw, would appreciate hint how the heck to survive this SL hunt pre data release. We´ve already broken high, lol. I dont want to pay for surviving, but if we start release this high, my SL could get easily hit by spikey.


Either close now or hedge it with an SL on the hedge below the low.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,311
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:58am Dec 6, 2013 5:58am
Well I ve never hedged, but now seriously thinking bout it.
edit: but it is just against my morals. If I wanted to hedge, I could as well close trade. Tricky situation.
edit: lol, you saw that last min push to h1 close?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,312
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:00am Dec 6, 2013 6:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well I ve never hedged, but now seriously thinking bout it. edit: but it is just against my morals. If I wanted to hedge, I could as well close trade. Tricky situation.
How high is your SL?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,313
  • Edited 6:14am Dec 6, 2013 6:04am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} How high is your SL?
Facking close, thats why I do care. 1,3685. Thought PA should be below daily close, not above.... Classics . I could just pull down leverage a bit and move SL like to 1,381. Am 40:1, actually dont need that much. But wanted high
edit: well in fact I think 1,371 SL should survive whatever spike comes out of it.
edit: btw, am wondering if my broker crashes platform again. Usually goes down during such high data releases. Prolly he wants me to get heartattack.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,314
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:15am Dec 6, 2013 6:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Facking close, thats why I do care. 1,3685. Thought PA should be below daily close, not above.... Classics . I could just pull down leverage a bit and move SL like to 1,381. Am 40:1, actually dont need that much. But wanted high edit: well in fact I think 1,371 SL should survive whatever spike comes out of it.
Hmm tough call mate. Reduce your exposure coz if this puppy goes north in a hurry, you will not get the execution at 1.3685 and you will be slipped by many pips anyway... only for it to fade quickly to 3630 area for the next launch.

I am projecting 3700/10 area as a top as long as the NFP does not suck the big banana.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,315
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:19am Dec 6, 2013 6:19am
The trend is up why short it against the trend.
  • #71,316
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:20am Dec 6, 2013 6:20am
Yeh, I can see that as well. There will be a slippage. Btw, lol that volume on m1 candle testing peak 2 mins ago.
edit: well i have a masterplan under pressure. May be not great, but since we ve broken high already and pressure is mounting, may not be bad in fact. Am gonna deleverage on next break of highs and will just stay on 10:1 till 1,371, to martingale just below. Hope it works.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,317
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:25am Dec 6, 2013 6:25am
Phone call transcript between Fed and BLS...

Fed employee: Hello, Ben asked me to call and let you know about our dilemma. Apparently a good NFP number is going to put pressure on the FOMC to start tapering. However we cannot do that because then treasury yields will go up. So please report a number below 180K and revise last month's number down to +140K. Can you do that?

BLS employee: Oh you mean like when the White House asked us to report a higher number just before the presidential elections? Yeah sure of course. No problem.

Fed employee: You do this and there's a promotion in it for you

BLS employee: Thanks bro. Don't worry. Leave it with me. You will not be disappointed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,318
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:26am Dec 6, 2013 6:26am

edit: yes please, behave Mr. Market, I want to put my SL back.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,319
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:28am Dec 6, 2013 6:28am
Quoting tradercnx
The trend is up why short it against the trend.
What's your upside target for today?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,320
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:31am Dec 6, 2013 6:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} What's your upside target for today?

around the 1.3770 area if it can get through 1.3710 and show good momentum.

Thoughts on this?

But I do think very soon it's going to top out and go much lower. I think around mid Jan it will top out.
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