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Sonic R. System

  • #63,081
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:08am Dec 5, 2013 9:08am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} loeil, What can I say, .....6,247 pips gain......! I think I will blow up this chart into a huge picture and put it on my wall. The caption will read, "Don't be a wimp. If you're a trader, then trade!" {image}
"If there are pips available, then go and catch them!"

Thanks Tah
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #63,082
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:12am Dec 5, 2013 9:12am
Quoting loeil
{quote} GJ - closed for 6247 pips gain {image}
Very nice trade, loeil. Bravo
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #63,083
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:22am Dec 5, 2013 9:22am
Quoting loeil
{quote} GJ - closed for 6247 pips gain {image}
Great work!
Newbie trader
  • #63,084
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:24am Dec 5, 2013 9:24am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} loeil, What can I say, .....6,247 pips gain......! I think I will blow up this chart into a huge picture and put it on my wall. The caption will read, "Don't be a wimp. If you're a trader, then trade!" Looks to me like the MMs finally brought the price down simply because they gave up trying to get you to give up! {image}

congrats, good job!
  • #63,085
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:26am Dec 5, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Catcher777
{quote} Very nice trade, loeil. Bravo
Quoting fex
{quote} Great work!
Quoting piprum
{quote} congrats, good job!
Thanks goes for Tah also, never ever able to do that without him!
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #63,086
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:56am Dec 5, 2013 9:56am
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA

Here is something I've been thinking. As I said I read a lot about price action, etc. One of the things that normally the price does is a 3 waves trend (it's not the only one). Sometimes PVSRA starts to tell us if MMs are bulls or bear very soon, and sometimes the drawdown is big because of that. Or simply PVSRA is detecting MM bulls but it's only the first push and if we start to build there we will have to handle the second and the 3rd push.

What if you pick a main chart (whatever you want) and wait for a 3 level push? If you start to build when you see weakness in the 3rd push, the R:R ratio would be way better, the drawdown lower and the psychology charge will be less. Of course, the price doesn't do always 3 push. Sometimes it does 2, sometimes 4 and very very rarely, 5. But around the 80% of the times it does 3 (if it always does 3 everybody will notice it easily).

Also, it's not always easy to identify the 3 waves. Sometimes the big boys try to distort the charts a little bit in order to confuse people. Same with traps. There are ways and training to avoid traps but PVSRA doesn't need them because there is normally no SL so it's ok.

Same with classic entries. The potential R:R is way better if we found a classic entry in a 1st or 3rd push. This works in every time frame, from ticks to monthly.

Hope it helps
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #63,087
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:19am Dec 5, 2013 10:19am
Quoting Tymedu
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA Here is something I've been thinking. As I said I read a lot about price action, etc. One of the things that normally the price does is a 3 waves trend (it's not the only one). Sometimes PVSRA starts to tell us if MMs are bulls or bear very soon, and sometimes the drawdown is big because of that. Or simply PVSRA is detecting MM bulls but it's only the first push and if we start to build there we will have to handle the second and the 3rd push. What if you pick a main chart (whatever you want) and wait for a 3 level push?...
Sounds awesome Tymedu. I think if we are able to combine PVSRA with some kind of stuff what you mentioned, I think this will be really strong weapon against MMs.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #63,088
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:29am Dec 5, 2013 10:29am
Quoting Tymedu
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA Here is something I've been thinking. As I said I read a lot about price action, etc. One of the things that normally the price does is a 3 waves trend (it's not the only one). Sometimes PVSRA starts to tell us if MMs are bulls or bear very soon, and sometimes the drawdown is big because of that. Or simply PVSRA is detecting MM bulls but it's only the first push and if we start to build there we will have to handle the second and the 3rd push. What if you pick a main chart (whatever you want) and wait for a 3 level push?...
Really good . Thanks you very much Tymedu
Newbie trader
  • #63,089
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:05am Dec 5, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Tymedu
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA Here is something I've been thinking. As I said I read a lot about price action, etc. One of the things that normally the price does is a 3 waves trend (it's not the only one). Sometimes PVSRA starts to tell us if MMs are bulls or bear very soon, and sometimes the drawdown is big because of that. Or simply PVSRA is detecting MM bulls but it's only the first push and if we start to build there we will have to handle the second and the 3rd push. What if you pick a main chart (whatever you want) and wait for a 3 level push?...
Very interesting idea Tymedu. Use PVSRA and Elliott waves together. Thank you very much.
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #63,090
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:12am Dec 5, 2013 11:12am
Glad you like it guys.

@Catcher, my explanation it's not exactly Elliot waves. Maybe in that example it looks like an Elliot Wave theory but sometimes the waves I refer breaks the Elliot theory I think. I'm not sure because I never read about Elliot wave theory but afaik it's not exactly the same.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #63,091
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:40am Dec 5, 2013 11:40am
Quoting loeil
{quote} GJ - closed for 6247 pips gain {image}
Crazy bastard, I want to be you dude!
There is no spoon....
  • #63,092
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:56am Dec 5, 2013 11:56am
Quoting Tymedu
Glad you like it guys. @Catcher, my explanation it's not exactly Elliot waves. Maybe in that example it looks like an Elliot Wave theory but sometimes the waves I refer breaks the Elliot theory I think. I'm not sure because I never read about Elliot wave theory but afaik it's not exactly the same.
Hm, in this example, it is really similar to Ellott waves.
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #63,093
  • Edited 2:16pm Dec 5, 2013 2:04pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting Tymedu
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA Here is something I've been thinking. As I said I read a lot about price action, etc. One of the things that normally the price does is a 3 waves trend (it's not the only one). Sometimes PVSRA starts to tell us if MMs are bulls or bear very soon, and sometimes the drawdown is big because of that. Or simply PVSRA is detecting MM bulls but it's only the first push and if we start to build there we will have to handle the second and the 3rd push. What if you pick a main chart (whatever you want) and wait for a 3 level push?...
Combining 3 waves with PVSRA - Tymedu

It more than helps, Tymedu. This is an excellently illustrated example of what we were all wrestling with thru the summer, and what we concluded we should do about it. I bet some missed, or forgot, or could not quite picture the essence of that conclusion. You have it well captured for all to see what they can be up against.

It is true. PVSRA "IDs" what the MMs are very, very well. So well, in fact, that as you said, we can get in bed with them far too early, and get a royal screwing for our effort. You and qFish started pointing out that we ought to wait at least half way thru the trend before jumping into the same side of the bed with them. Of course, the problem with that is we don't know where the "half-way" place is! The previously mentioned solution is this....

At the start of a trend, let's say a trend up, the MMs will be bulls. They were bulls at the bottom buying to close shorts and buying to open longs, and for some time during the trend they will remain bulls to give the trend momentum. At some point in this trend up they will start to focus on being bears so they can sell to close their longs into the continued momentum (other longs still coming in). They will probably be more bear at tops and now less bulls at bottoms. They still have to be bulls to assure the trend continues while they close their longs into the upwards momentum, but they will start to take more advantage of the tops to be bears beginning to add shorts. I do not know if this transition is easy to spot if we really look and analyze for it. The easy thing to do is to just go with the trend. If the trend is up and there are still good signs of bulls at retraces to lows, we should be still entering long. If we do clearly see more bear volume at highs and less bull volume at lows, then that might well be our indication the trend up is at least half over and the bears are in control. But the easy thing to do would be to wait for the trend to be down, and then be entering shorts.

Restricting to trading the trend sort of implies we back off from trading a good part of the latter part of trends, when the PVSRA indications are opposite the trend. Well, we either do that, or we understand we might be in the latter part of the trend up and trade both the new bear indications at highs as shorter term trades and also trade the ongoing bull indications at lows as shorter term trades.

But, above all, we need the mental picture in our minds that we are dealing with trends that can continue for a very long time, or suddenly after just a short time they can reverse. And anything that helps us gauge where in a trend we might be is most helpful. And your focus on spotting when a trend is over, or is transitioning, as the place to be trading instead of during the trend is nice. May I add to that concept that a trend down (Wyckoff Mark Down Phase) can "land", as in your picture, and go into the ranging, but not as a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, but as just a stop-over amounting to another Wyckoff Distribution Phase before resuming another trend down. So, when the end of a trend seems to be at hand, particular care to get the right read on the MMs during the ranging is so very important. And it might be very difficult, being why just trading with the trend could turn out to remain the easiest option.


Many Thanks,
-tah
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  • #63,094
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:24pm Dec 5, 2013 2:24pm
PVSRA Lesson (NU Example)

Sometimes when price has been going up and then high volume comes in, some traders begin to think that if the price drops below a certain price, they will take the risk of entering short. After all, the price has been going up and at some suitable highs (maybe on the sign of incoming high volume) is the time to be thinking just that.

Well, look what can happen. See the price spike down? Somebody had a short order down there. Somebody else, that is building long, decided to take the long side of that short order. Of course, the imbalance at all levels in between has to be matched in order to get the price down there. Who can do this? Brokers! You will see the volume for the spike is low, barely discernible, but that is only the count of the trades that had to be executed to get the price down there, not the size of those trades! You can be the shorter had a large order pending, worth the broker taking the opposite side of whatever pending order imbalance existed at the levels in between. The broker executed it for the shorter. Now that shorter client of the broker is short. And now the price resumes it's upwards trek.
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  • #63,095
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:27pm Dec 5, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting traderathome
So, when the end of a trend seems to be at hand, particular care to get the right read on the MMs during the ranging is so very important. And it might be very difficult, being why just trading with the trend could turn out to remain the easiest option. Many Thanks, -tah {image}
That it's something really really important and I forgot to point it out. After the 3 push, price can make a reversal or, as you said, it can be consolidating and ranging to continue the previous trend. It's not that easy like 3 down 3 up. That is why I'm so happy about the time I spent trading exclusively PVSRA, because in those moments I can identify if that is a reversal or a consolidation to continue the trend (I do not success 100% of the time doing my analysis ofc or I would be rich, but it helped me a lot).

Regarding the Elliot waves, I do not know if this is Elliot theory or not because I never saw anything related to Elliot Wave theories nor Wyckoff. I just spent time enough reading naked trading theories and strategies and in all of them they mention this behaviour. The hard part about the naked trading is the accuracy. Most of the time I'm right about price direction but market shakes take me out constantly. I know I'm in the right path but I just have to improve my accuracy. However, with a good entry in a specific point can give you a 1:10 R:R trade which is pretty awesome.

The other solution is to build a position like I mentioned before.

Have a great night.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #63,096
  • Edited 4:03pm Dec 5, 2013 3:43pm | Edited 4:03pm
EJ PVSRA Indication

This M1 chart is showing PVSRA indications the MMs are bulls, adding longs at lows. Just look at the tall red bear candle. Now look at the next green candle. Do you see that it is below the whole number? Do you see the increased volume for that candle? Buy low, sell high. In this case, it is buy low.

The M1 chart can be extremely revealing as to whether the market is bullish or bearish. However, just like we do not trade on high volume alone, we do not trade on M1 PVSRA indications alone. It just adds maybe confirmation, or maybe an alert that things are changing.

BTW, notice the BOJ high impact release coming this weekend. It is possible the market is looking to add longs before the close Friday, or to add longs and then hike price and take profit before the close Friday, depending on what they know about the release.
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  • #63,097
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:35pm Dec 5, 2013 9:35pm
preliminary data on Non-Farm can make moving up against the greenback before the expected data , that can adjust the position of the currency market, the subsequent behavior of the currency rate against the dollar will accordingly data expected news
  • #63,098
  • Dec 6, 2013 1:41am Dec 6, 2013 1:41am
Quoting LITEchild
AUDJPY Long. High risk scout entry, but just couldn't resist. Setup looked too juicy ! D1 Dragon Bullish. TP@ RDH and/or RWH. {image} {image}
Two weak currencies and you still got it right, it skyrocketed! Congrats.
  • #63,099
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:02am Dec 6, 2013 3:02am
Quoting loeil
{quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks goes for Tah also, never ever able to do that without him!
Loeil, what can I say, you shock me I do not have words to congradulate you on this trade I don't think dictionary has published them yet.
If I was female I would be asking for your babies put it that way

Well done
fd
  • #63,100
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:37am Dec 6, 2013 3:37am
Quoting kazancakis
{quote} Two weak currencies and you still got it right, it skyrocketed! Congrats.
Volume spike suggested sellers were still strong afterall, so closed that trade for +50pips. D1 Dragon sort of flattened out. Like you said...two weak currencies...
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